Zurdo זורדו
@zur-do.bsky.social
Father, Data science / machine learning researcher and communicator with a background in cosmology and a passion for statistics.
מחפש ת׳חברים שלי.
מחפש ת׳חברים שלי.
December 12, 2024 at 4:25 PM
"[From the Simpson’s Paradox we learn that] certain decisions cannot be made based on the basis of data alone, but instead depend on the story behind the data. … Graph Theory enables these stories to be conveyed" - Judea Pearl
Internalising this paradox is a great gateway to causality.
#Causalsky
Internalising this paradox is a great gateway to causality.
#Causalsky
December 11, 2024 at 1:42 PM
"[From the Simpson’s Paradox we learn that] certain decisions cannot be made based on the basis of data alone, but instead depend on the story behind the data. … Graph Theory enables these stories to be conveyed" - Judea Pearl
Internalising this paradox is a great gateway to causality.
#Causalsky
Internalising this paradox is a great gateway to causality.
#Causalsky
"The equals sign does not convey any causal information" - Judea Pearl
Structural Equations make causality explicit.
Textbook physics doesn't!
E.g., dv/dt := F/m reads F causes velocity change.
Einstein's E=mc²? Depends:
E := mc² → Manhattan Project
m := E/c² → Particle accelerators
#Causalsky
Structural Equations make causality explicit.
Textbook physics doesn't!
E.g., dv/dt := F/m reads F causes velocity change.
Einstein's E=mc²? Depends:
E := mc² → Manhattan Project
m := E/c² → Particle accelerators
#Causalsky
December 10, 2024 at 6:37 AM
"The equals sign does not convey any causal information" - Judea Pearl
Structural Equations make causality explicit.
Textbook physics doesn't!
E.g., dv/dt := F/m reads F causes velocity change.
Einstein's E=mc²? Depends:
E := mc² → Manhattan Project
m := E/c² → Particle accelerators
#Causalsky
Structural Equations make causality explicit.
Textbook physics doesn't!
E.g., dv/dt := F/m reads F causes velocity change.
Einstein's E=mc²? Depends:
E := mc² → Manhattan Project
m := E/c² → Particle accelerators
#Causalsky
"Mistaking a mediator for a confounder is one of the most deadliest sins of causal inference..." - Judea Pearl
Chains and Forks share dependencies but demand distinct treatments. Forks require adjustment to prevent bias; chains forbid it to preserve causality. DAGs clearly visualise. #CausalSky
Chains and Forks share dependencies but demand distinct treatments. Forks require adjustment to prevent bias; chains forbid it to preserve causality. DAGs clearly visualise. #CausalSky
December 9, 2024 at 6:43 AM
"Mistaking a mediator for a confounder is one of the most deadliest sins of causal inference..." - Judea Pearl
Chains and Forks share dependencies but demand distinct treatments. Forks require adjustment to prevent bias; chains forbid it to preserve causality. DAGs clearly visualise. #CausalSky
Chains and Forks share dependencies but demand distinct treatments. Forks require adjustment to prevent bias; chains forbid it to preserve causality. DAGs clearly visualise. #CausalSky
"[The Monty Hall Problem] shows that our beliefs should depend not merely on the facts observed but also on the process that led to those facts." - Judea Pearl (Causal Primer, p.15)
Daily quote 4 #MontyHall #CausalSky
Switch or stay? Judea points that the host’s choice reveals more than it seems.
Daily quote 4 #MontyHall #CausalSky
Switch or stay? Judea points that the host’s choice reveals more than it seems.
December 8, 2024 at 8:42 PM
"[The Monty Hall Problem] shows that our beliefs should depend not merely on the facts observed but also on the process that led to those facts." - Judea Pearl (Causal Primer, p.15)
Daily quote 4 #MontyHall #CausalSky
Switch or stay? Judea points that the host’s choice reveals more than it seems.
Daily quote 4 #MontyHall #CausalSky
Switch or stay? Judea points that the host’s choice reveals more than it seems.
"Our unique gift is seeing what might have been." — Judea Pearl
Quote no. 4
The Causal Ladder defines 3 rungs:
1️⃣ Seeing (what happened?)
2️⃣ Doing (what happens if we act?)
3️⃣ Imagining (what would happen?).
From observations to interventions to counterfactuals—causality evolves with us.
#Causalsky
Quote no. 4
The Causal Ladder defines 3 rungs:
1️⃣ Seeing (what happened?)
2️⃣ Doing (what happens if we act?)
3️⃣ Imagining (what would happen?).
From observations to interventions to counterfactuals—causality evolves with us.
#Causalsky
December 6, 2024 at 5:18 AM
"Our unique gift is seeing what might have been." — Judea Pearl
Quote no. 4
The Causal Ladder defines 3 rungs:
1️⃣ Seeing (what happened?)
2️⃣ Doing (what happens if we act?)
3️⃣ Imagining (what would happen?).
From observations to interventions to counterfactuals—causality evolves with us.
#Causalsky
Quote no. 4
The Causal Ladder defines 3 rungs:
1️⃣ Seeing (what happened?)
2️⃣ Doing (what happens if we act?)
3️⃣ Imagining (what would happen?).
From observations to interventions to counterfactuals—causality evolves with us.
#Causalsky
"Our unique gift is seeing what might have been." — Judea Pearl
Daily quote no. 4
The Causal Ladder defines three rungs:
1️⃣ Seeing (what happened?)
2️⃣ Doing (what happens if we act?)
3️⃣ Imagining (what would happen?).
From observations to interventions to counterfactuals—causality evolves with us.
Daily quote no. 4
The Causal Ladder defines three rungs:
1️⃣ Seeing (what happened?)
2️⃣ Doing (what happens if we act?)
3️⃣ Imagining (what would happen?).
From observations to interventions to counterfactuals—causality evolves with us.
December 6, 2024 at 5:16 AM
"Our unique gift is seeing what might have been." — Judea Pearl
Daily quote no. 4
The Causal Ladder defines three rungs:
1️⃣ Seeing (what happened?)
2️⃣ Doing (what happens if we act?)
3️⃣ Imagining (what would happen?).
From observations to interventions to counterfactuals—causality evolves with us.
Daily quote no. 4
The Causal Ladder defines three rungs:
1️⃣ Seeing (what happened?)
2️⃣ Doing (what happens if we act?)
3️⃣ Imagining (what would happen?).
From observations to interventions to counterfactuals—causality evolves with us.
"The collection of information is as important as the information itself" - Judea Pearl
Daily quote no. 3.
Pearl reminds us that context shapes meaning: biases & assumptions lurk in how info is gathered. It's a subtle critique of Deming's 'Trust data' mantra.
#CausalSky
Daily quote no. 3.
Pearl reminds us that context shapes meaning: biases & assumptions lurk in how info is gathered. It's a subtle critique of Deming's 'Trust data' mantra.
#CausalSky
December 5, 2024 at 5:32 AM
"The collection of information is as important as the information itself" - Judea Pearl
Daily quote no. 3.
Pearl reminds us that context shapes meaning: biases & assumptions lurk in how info is gathered. It's a subtle critique of Deming's 'Trust data' mantra.
#CausalSky
Daily quote no. 3.
Pearl reminds us that context shapes meaning: biases & assumptions lurk in how info is gathered. It's a subtle critique of Deming's 'Trust data' mantra.
#CausalSky
"Oddly, statisticians both over- and underrate the importance of confounders." – Judea Pearl (The Book of Why, p. 139)
Day 2 of of daily quotes. Pearl critiques stats for lacking tools like DAGs to discern what to control for—essential to avoid spurious correlations like colliders!
#CausalSky
Day 2 of of daily quotes. Pearl critiques stats for lacking tools like DAGs to discern what to control for—essential to avoid spurious correlations like colliders!
#CausalSky
December 4, 2024 at 2:06 PM
"Oddly, statisticians both over- and underrate the importance of confounders." – Judea Pearl (The Book of Why, p. 139)
Day 2 of of daily quotes. Pearl critiques stats for lacking tools like DAGs to discern what to control for—essential to avoid spurious correlations like colliders!
#CausalSky
Day 2 of of daily quotes. Pearl critiques stats for lacking tools like DAGs to discern what to control for—essential to avoid spurious correlations like colliders!
#CausalSky