Knights Hussaini
@zubey.bsky.social
I worry about the future professionally.
@econberger.bsky.social this seems up your alley
December 7, 2025 at 5:14 PM
@econberger.bsky.social this seems up your alley
I forgot about Schmid, but yes - I agree that he's the most hawkish voter.
September 17, 2025 at 2:34 AM
I forgot about Schmid, but yes - I agree that he's the most hawkish voter.
I think there is a not insignificant chance (15%) that we get one dissent in favor of holding. Goolsbee would be my guess.
September 17, 2025 at 2:10 AM
I think there is a not insignificant chance (15%) that we get one dissent in favor of holding. Goolsbee would be my guess.
Interesting observation. Thanks for sharing. Does the higher sensitivity to asset price declines among the wealthy affect your conclusion?
August 11, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Interesting observation. Thanks for sharing. Does the higher sensitivity to asset price declines among the wealthy affect your conclusion?
Yup, you're right. My point was more about seeing a decline in real activity in lower income cohorts.
August 7, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Yup, you're right. My point was more about seeing a decline in real activity in lower income cohorts.
K shaped economy? MCD domestic foot traffic down
August 7, 2025 at 9:15 PM
K shaped economy? MCD domestic foot traffic down
Once we're at the landing point with collection, how are you expecting the cumulative burden to be split?
July 15, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Once we're at the landing point with collection, how are you expecting the cumulative burden to be split?
Ah, you're right! So essentially no pass-through like you said. Makes Goldman's assumption of 70% pass-through even funnier.
July 15, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Ah, you're right! So essentially no pass-through like you said. Makes Goldman's assumption of 70% pass-through even funnier.
I know PCE is better, but we already have CPI - core goods shows .22 from April to June, with almost the entirety in June.
So 1/4 pass-through over 3 mo. My 2/3 estimate is based on just June data (assuming measurement lags). I think 1/4 - 1/2 is a safe bet.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0...
So 1/4 pass-through over 3 mo. My 2/3 estimate is based on just June data (assuming measurement lags). I think 1/4 - 1/2 is a safe bet.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0...
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Commodities Less Food and Energy Commodities in U.S. City Average
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Commodities Less Food and Energy Commodities in U.S. City Average
fred.stlouisfed.org
July 15, 2025 at 2:41 PM
I know PCE is better, but we already have CPI - core goods shows .22 from April to June, with almost the entirety in June.
So 1/4 pass-through over 3 mo. My 2/3 estimate is based on just June data (assuming measurement lags). I think 1/4 - 1/2 is a safe bet.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0...
So 1/4 pass-through over 3 mo. My 2/3 estimate is based on just June data (assuming measurement lags). I think 1/4 - 1/2 is a safe bet.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0...
What's the evidence that pass through is limited? Based on the rise in core goods, it looks like ~50% is passing through to consumers.
Rough math:
3% monthly increase in net tariffs * 14% import share * 50% gets us to the 0.2 in this morning's CPI report.
Rough math:
3% monthly increase in net tariffs * 14% import share * 50% gets us to the 0.2 in this morning's CPI report.
July 15, 2025 at 1:55 PM
What's the evidence that pass through is limited? Based on the rise in core goods, it looks like ~50% is passing through to consumers.
Rough math:
3% monthly increase in net tariffs * 14% import share * 50% gets us to the 0.2 in this morning's CPI report.
Rough math:
3% monthly increase in net tariffs * 14% import share * 50% gets us to the 0.2 in this morning's CPI report.
How confident are you that Powell will stay on as a regular governor? As a huge fan of his stewardship, I'm really hoping he does, but I can't read him.
July 12, 2025 at 12:12 AM
How confident are you that Powell will stay on as a regular governor? As a huge fan of his stewardship, I'm really hoping he does, but I can't read him.
This is an argument that today's market optimists make - that today's best companies are uniquely valuable.
I think a fair counter is that we've seen past periods of innovation where tech dominates and yet valuations still mean revert. Some relevant charts:
www.morganstanley.com/im/publicati...
I think a fair counter is that we've seen past periods of innovation where tech dominates and yet valuations still mean revert. Some relevant charts:
www.morganstanley.com/im/publicati...
July 9, 2025 at 12:51 AM
This is an argument that today's market optimists make - that today's best companies are uniquely valuable.
I think a fair counter is that we've seen past periods of innovation where tech dominates and yet valuations still mean revert. Some relevant charts:
www.morganstanley.com/im/publicati...
I think a fair counter is that we've seen past periods of innovation where tech dominates and yet valuations still mean revert. Some relevant charts:
www.morganstanley.com/im/publicati...
Retail sales are most likely to be impacted and CPI the least, it seems
May 9, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Retail sales are most likely to be impacted and CPI the least, it seems
There's absolutely a level of hysteria in the online discourse. But the amount of executive overreach does hint that there's a grain of truth behind it.
March 31, 2025 at 5:54 PM
There's absolutely a level of hysteria in the online discourse. But the amount of executive overreach does hint that there's a grain of truth behind it.
When does it get priced in tho
March 26, 2025 at 7:30 PM
When does it get priced in tho
If the term premium going to zero is an indication of how yields might evolve, the long end has further to fall. I think Andy at Damped Spring favors the long end now atm, unlike last fall.
March 22, 2025 at 2:15 AM
If the term premium going to zero is an indication of how yields might evolve, the long end has further to fall. I think Andy at Damped Spring favors the long end now atm, unlike last fall.
On the other side, are you worries about Fed/contractor layoffs causing a disorderly cooling in the labor market?
March 5, 2025 at 4:58 AM
On the other side, are you worries about Fed/contractor layoffs causing a disorderly cooling in the labor market?
Thanks! As a newbie to the labor market, it's still surprising to me that just understanding the data sources is a challenge in itself.
December 10, 2024 at 4:06 AM
Thanks! As a newbie to the labor market, it's still surprising to me that just understanding the data sources is a challenge in itself.
Would the revision be released on March 5th, 2025 based on this calendar?
www.bls.gov/cew/release-...
www.bls.gov/cew/release-...
Schedule of News Releases and Full Data Availability for County Employment and Wages
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Release Calendar
www.bls.gov
December 10, 2024 at 3:58 AM
Would the revision be released on March 5th, 2025 based on this calendar?
www.bls.gov/cew/release-...
www.bls.gov/cew/release-...