The question is whether Poland can convert this reprieve into structural reforms. If not, the model that carried it this far cannot carry it much further.

Zola Chartbook --> After the Miracle buff.ly/DpSq5sg

Warsaw is now attempting to outrun the problem by fuelling growth through a massive military build-up, hoping it allows the economy to temporarily 'outrun its political dysfunction'.

But a demographic cliff looms, the shrinking workforce was briefly offset by Ukrainian refugees, but that influx has normalised and further immigration is politically off the table.

This represents a critical pressure point behind Vision 2030. Not energy transition or peak oil, but a patronage system incompatible with absorbing 70% of the population under age 35.
Our latest Zola Chartbook explores the structural pressures driving Saudi leadership: Royal Rush --> buff.ly/7yZvxSt

Our lastest Zola Chartbook examines how shifts in confidence, policy, and perception of debasement shaped both the rally and its reversal, and what this episode reveals about gold’s enduring role in a fragile monetary system --> buff.ly/Uy2PrDB

Central banks continue to add to reserves as the dollar’s dominance erodes, suggesting structural demand will outlast short-term sentiment...

Even so, the core drivers remain intact.

The link between gold and real yields has broken down, with rising rates now signalling sovereign risk rather than confidence...

The IMF meetings, where policymakers projected renewed confidence in managing inflation and debt, weakened the story that had fuelled the metal’s rise, i.e., the fear of monetary debasement, prompting a sharp pullback as positioning unwound and liquidity thinned...

Population inflows and fiscal stimulus have collided with constrained housing supply, where prices have climbed steadily.

Spain’s recovery reflects real gains, but the foundation remains uneven.

Real complete note here --> buff.ly/nArHjC7

Yet even with growth momentum, Spain’s debt ratio has risen by 10 points since 2019.

Cheaper financing has helped, but fiscal space remains limited. Consolidation has been postponed, not resolved.

Policy support has amplified the expansion.

Spain has received EU recovery disbursements worth over 4.5% of GDP.

But with more people comes thinner output per person.

Real GDP per capita has barely risen since 2019, trailing France and Italy. Growth has been driven by labour supply, not productivity.

Demographics explain much of the divergence.

Since 2020, Spain's working-age population has expanded by over one million, a reversal of earlier decline and an exception in the Eurozone.

With this in mind, Beijing enters the APEC summit in a position of quiet strength. Any discussion of “containment” will now take place against a backdrop where China has proven its ability to reroute, not retreat.

You can find more in our Chartbook from some weeks ago: buff.ly/PgyUMbf

China’s exports are holding up through efficiency, innovation, and a supportive global backdrop.

Tariff-based containment has changed trade geography, not the balance of competitiveness.