foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/19/c...

Unemployment could rise but in a country where factories are already highly automated, the political fallout is likely to be muted. China has withstood worse. SoE reforms led to over 76 million workers being laid off in 1992-2002. A new wave of layoffs is unlikely to shake the CPC’s grip on power.

Trump’s tariffs sting and China’s leaders know it. They could hit China’s low-value-added light manufacturing particularly hard. But shrinking exports might end up benefiting China by accelerating industrial consolidation, forcing laggards out of the game, and improving efficiency.

But what may cause China to blink? www.cfr.org/blog/what-ma...

And as a result of the party’s control over information, particularly regarding foreign affairs, any encounter with the Trump administration can be framed domestically as Xi standing firm against foreign bullying. @cfr.org www.foreignaffairs.com/china/how-ch...