Thanks

What's KKP? Sorry, I know I should know...

Thank you

It looks like turnout will be a shade below last time (and the long-run average). Which party is generally seen as being harmed/helped by lower turnout?

That said, if the current average is accurate (big if, independent polling is scarce and of mixed quality), it is hard to see how Orban can reverse his decline with his usual methods and without major changes in fundamental political and economic conditions.

Bigger issue is the immense resource advantages of the ruling party that can mobilize every imaginable tool at the disposal of the state and state-aligned businesses (even communication on utility bills), intimidation and possible Russian interference (false flag ops, etc.).

Gerrymander has the effect that Tisza probably needs a 3-4% advantage in the popular vote to break even with Fidesz in seats. But as its advantage increases, and especially as it reaches a size indicated by the current polling averages, the effect of GM disappears.

Actually, for Orbán it took about ten years to get here. While there had been suspicions earlier, it's only in the last few years that there is some credible evidence that the Central Bureau of Statistics of Hungary is messing with numbers (notably, on poverty rates). America's descent is swift.

What's interesting is that even the diaspora vote looks much closer. In the first round, if I remember correctly, it went to Simion by 2 to 1 and now it is more like 55:45, though many are still uncounted. Turnout is also way up in the diaspora as well as in Romania proper. Good for Romania.

What would be a strong response? Genuine question from a total layperson.