Zach
zachnielsen.bsky.social
Zach
@zachnielsen.bsky.social
Analytics, sports, trying to figure out Bayesian math one step at a time
I've been looking at ways to solve, especially with a focus on over/unders. Basing the calculation on negative binominal didn't work, a grid search for the best parameters is still ongoing. And we do get some interesting probabilities too.

Really fun stuff!
January 7, 2025 at 12:50 AM
Playing around a bit on visualizing predictions. One thing that's been pretty challenging is the over under variation. Turns out, every hockey game lands at 6, so it's real easy to have a model just predict 6 for every game.
January 7, 2025 at 12:50 AM
An example of the type of analysis I'm now producing. I'm not sure about that win probability with an upset rate of 40% or so. But it looks good! More to come around testing and experimentation.
January 5, 2025 at 6:19 AM
For today's focus, I wanted to continue pushing on the implementation from the rest of the article - Claude made that pretty quick. I thought it was interesting to look at prediction accuracy with bias of future data (top part) versus only using historical data (bottom section)

January 1, 2025 at 6:00 AM
So for a first draft, got the following! 3 main differences, will be interesting to see how those shake out.

Odds from Will Hill (for ease of use and speed, will hopefully find a market number programmatically soon).

Happy to take any and all feedback! More to certainly come
December 31, 2024 at 4:56 AM
Had a chance to rewrite JobDescriptionAI.com, which I'm super proud of! AI is getting better writing HTML and CSS. I think it looks great
December 13, 2024 at 4:04 AM
As part of that, I've been working on new tools for context management - including a SQL helper that analyzes tables and lets you pick which ones to send to the LLM
December 11, 2024 at 5:49 AM
Working on Bluesky Analytics, and it's coming together! Very excited.
November 27, 2024 at 8:27 PM