Zach Anderson
@zach-anderson.bsky.social
Breaking down incentives, institutions, and unintended consequences.
Politically homeless. Structurally curious.
Substack coming soon!!
Politically homeless. Structurally curious.
Substack coming soon!!
A potential effect though is teams paying other teams to not trigger a trade. However, I think if you limited the # of trades, that will lower interest in leagues. Fans like the big blockbuster shake up, or hope of "is this the missing piece?"
February 6, 2026 at 8:10 PM
A potential effect though is teams paying other teams to not trigger a trade. However, I think if you limited the # of trades, that will lower interest in leagues. Fans like the big blockbuster shake up, or hope of "is this the missing piece?"
A cap like that would shift incentives from optimization to prioritization. Teams would have to decide not just who to trade for, but when it’s worth spending one of a limited number of moves which would probably make timing and information more valuable than volume.
February 6, 2026 at 8:08 PM
A cap like that would shift incentives from optimization to prioritization. Teams would have to decide not just who to trade for, but when it’s worth spending one of a limited number of moves which would probably make timing and information more valuable than volume.
One reason local leadership often works better is incentive alignment: tighter feedback loops and clearer accountability.
National politics tends to operate with much weaker feedback, which helps explain the performance gap.
National politics tends to operate with much weaker feedback, which helps explain the performance gap.
February 1, 2026 at 1:24 PM
One reason local leadership often works better is incentive alignment: tighter feedback loops and clearer accountability.
National politics tends to operate with much weaker feedback, which helps explain the performance gap.
National politics tends to operate with much weaker feedback, which helps explain the performance gap.
Its that old adage, "keep your friends close, and your co- conspirators closer"
February 1, 2026 at 1:17 PM
Its that old adage, "keep your friends close, and your co- conspirators closer"
One complicating factor is that surveillance expansion usually isn’t driven by a single decision. It accumulates through layered technical capabilities, legal authorities, and institutional incentives, which makes reversal harder than initial adoption.
January 31, 2026 at 3:33 AM
One complicating factor is that surveillance expansion usually isn’t driven by a single decision. It accumulates through layered technical capabilities, legal authorities, and institutional incentives, which makes reversal harder than initial adoption.
DHS carve-outs like this are common in shutdown negotiations. They allow leadership to resolve broader funding fights while postponing the most contentious issue.
One unintended effect is that unresolved issues tend to concentrate pressure later, rather than being diffused during the initial deal.
One unintended effect is that unresolved issues tend to concentrate pressure later, rather than being diffused during the initial deal.
January 31, 2026 at 3:30 AM
DHS carve-outs like this are common in shutdown negotiations. They allow leadership to resolve broader funding fights while postponing the most contentious issue.
One unintended effect is that unresolved issues tend to concentrate pressure later, rather than being diffused during the initial deal.
One unintended effect is that unresolved issues tend to concentrate pressure later, rather than being diffused during the initial deal.
One thing these files also show is how durable those networks are. They’re built around access, money, and mutual risk, which tends to outlast ideological shifts or public conflict between individuals.
January 31, 2026 at 3:10 AM
One thing these files also show is how durable those networks are. They’re built around access, money, and mutual risk, which tends to outlast ideological shifts or public conflict between individuals.
The article underscores a familiar infrastructure dynamic: compute demand is scaling faster than grid upgrades and transmission can keep up. When planning cycles lag demand, capacity tends to get added in large, concentrated jumps rather than incrementally.
January 29, 2026 at 6:19 PM
The article underscores a familiar infrastructure dynamic: compute demand is scaling faster than grid upgrades and transmission can keep up. When planning cycles lag demand, capacity tends to get added in large, concentrated jumps rather than incrementally.
Distinguishing between operational effects and perception effects helps explain why the same strategy can succeed in one moment and collapse in another.
It’s often not just what’s done—but how actions are framed, read, and retold publicly.
Where do you think that line breaks down most often?
It’s often not just what’s done—but how actions are framed, read, and retold publicly.
Where do you think that line breaks down most often?
January 29, 2026 at 2:19 PM
Distinguishing between operational effects and perception effects helps explain why the same strategy can succeed in one moment and collapse in another.
It’s often not just what’s done—but how actions are framed, read, and retold publicly.
Where do you think that line breaks down most often?
It’s often not just what’s done—but how actions are framed, read, and retold publicly.
Where do you think that line breaks down most often?
This reporting underscores a familiar dynamic in large enforcement systems: early surges show impact, but scale eventually exposes bottlenecks in courts, capacity, and political tolerance.
Long-term durability depends on how those constraints are handled, not just on intensity.
Long-term durability depends on how those constraints are handled, not just on intensity.
January 29, 2026 at 1:57 PM
This reporting underscores a familiar dynamic in large enforcement systems: early surges show impact, but scale eventually exposes bottlenecks in courts, capacity, and political tolerance.
Long-term durability depends on how those constraints are handled, not just on intensity.
Long-term durability depends on how those constraints are handled, not just on intensity.
One recurring risk in cases like this is institutional inertia: access arrangements and legacy systems often persist long after their original assumptions no longer hold. Over time, that kind of exposure compounds regardless of intent.
January 28, 2026 at 3:04 PM
One recurring risk in cases like this is institutional inertia: access arrangements and legacy systems often persist long after their original assumptions no longer hold. Over time, that kind of exposure compounds regardless of intent.
Whether that pressure increases the chance of negotiation or escalation often comes down to how each side reads the signal, and how intermediaries respond to the heightened risks.
January 28, 2026 at 2:52 PM
Whether that pressure increases the chance of negotiation or escalation often comes down to how each side reads the signal, and how intermediaries respond to the heightened risks.
A large naval deployment coupled with public threats changes not only military calculus but also diplomatic incentives for both the U.S. and Iran.
January 28, 2026 at 2:52 PM
A large naval deployment coupled with public threats changes not only military calculus but also diplomatic incentives for both the U.S. and Iran.
This doesn’t necessarily mean the underlying objectives are illegitimate — it means that political endurance often depends on how actions are framed and received over time.
January 28, 2026 at 1:00 PM
This doesn’t necessarily mean the underlying objectives are illegitimate — it means that political endurance often depends on how actions are framed and received over time.
Distinguishing between operational effects and perception effects helps explain why similar strategies can succeed at one time and falter later — it’s not just about the actions themselves, but how they are read and retold publicly.
January 28, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Distinguishing between operational effects and perception effects helps explain why similar strategies can succeed at one time and falter later — it’s not just about the actions themselves, but how they are read and retold publicly.
One thing this situation highlights is how enforcement tactics and public narratives interact. Heavy-handed operations can produce immediate tactical outcomes, but when they generate sustained public backlash and erode trust, the long-term political viability of a policy can shift quickly.
January 28, 2026 at 1:00 PM
One thing this situation highlights is how enforcement tactics and public narratives interact. Heavy-handed operations can produce immediate tactical outcomes, but when they generate sustained public backlash and erode trust, the long-term political viability of a policy can shift quickly.
In other countries, sustained researcher emigration has had long-term effects on scientific capacity (Iran is often cited), though outcomes vary depending on whether incentives later shift.
January 28, 2026 at 12:53 PM
In other countries, sustained researcher emigration has had long-term effects on scientific capacity (Iran is often cited), though outcomes vary depending on whether incentives later shift.
One additional risk to note is reputational. Even when roles are limited and authority remains with the host country, the presence of controversial foreign agencies can shift attention away from the event itself and toward broader critiques of U.S. policy.
January 28, 2026 at 3:01 AM
One additional risk to note is reputational. Even when roles are limited and authority remains with the host country, the presence of controversial foreign agencies can shift attention away from the event itself and toward broader critiques of U.S. policy.
One important piece of this process is normalization.
Each step often appeared administrative, legal, or temporary in isolation — which is why resistance tended to lag the escalation itself.
The danger wasn’t a single moment, but how successive steps came to feel routine.
Each step often appeared administrative, legal, or temporary in isolation — which is why resistance tended to lag the escalation itself.
The danger wasn’t a single moment, but how successive steps came to feel routine.
January 28, 2026 at 2:48 AM
One important piece of this process is normalization.
Each step often appeared administrative, legal, or temporary in isolation — which is why resistance tended to lag the escalation itself.
The danger wasn’t a single moment, but how successive steps came to feel routine.
Each step often appeared administrative, legal, or temporary in isolation — which is why resistance tended to lag the escalation itself.
The danger wasn’t a single moment, but how successive steps came to feel routine.
It truly depends on how the other country perceives the event.
January 28, 2026 at 1:46 AM
It truly depends on how the other country perceives the event.