Is the Long End Inverted?

30Y-20Y spread: +4 bps
1W: -1 | 1Y: +10

Near flat - watch for inversion

Why it matters: When 30Y yields less than 20Y,
it signals convexity demand or vol expectations.

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes

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Where's the Best Carry?

Steeper curve = more rolldown return
(yield + price gain as bonds age)

2Y-5Y: +28 bps
5Y-10Y: +43 bps
10Y-30Y: +59 bps ← best

Best segment: 10Y-30Y

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes

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Today's yield curve vs last year's.

The 1 year change in the yield curve level and slope was -41 bps and +28 bps, respectively.

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/curves

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We have a number of cool preset dates that show interesting periods in yield curve history.

One of them shows the most similar yield curve to today's:

www.yieldcurve.pro/curves?prese...

For example, the November 2, 2007 curve is most similar to today's.

Interesting...no?

Front End Monitor

Yield (1W chg bps)
1 Mo: 3.77% (+2)
3 Mo: 3.67% (+0)
6 Mo: 3.62% (+2)
1 Yr: 3.52% (-3)

Fed funds: 3.75%
3Mo near Fed funds (-8 bps)

Front end inverted: 1Yr-1Mo = -25 bps

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels

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Essays On Trading Strategy by Graham L. Giller

This book focuses on practical trading strategies...

https://www.amazon.com/Essays-Trading-Strategy-Scientific-Finance/dp/9811273812/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=yieldcurvepro-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=28bd1311427606e3d389725b44c61c55&camp=1789&creative=9325

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Federal Reserve rate update.

The current Fed Funds Rate sits at 3.75% compared to the 2 Yr Note at 3.56%.

Everyone knows we should replace the FOMC with the 2 Yr Note anyway. 🤓

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/fed

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Weekly Yield Curve Recap

Yield (1W chg bps)
2 Yr: 3.56% (-3)
5 Yr: 3.82% (+0)
10 Yr: 4.22% (-2)
30 Yr: 4.80% (-3)

Biggest mover: 2 Yr (-3 bps)
2s10s little changed (+1 bps)
Regime: Bull Steep 🐂📈

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels

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Yield Curve Butterfly: 2s/5s/10s

Current: +8 bps
1Y change: +5 bps

Body: 5 Yr
Wings: 2 Yr, 10 Yr

+ = humped (body rich)
- = cupped (body cheap)

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels

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Recent Treasury auction demand.

View all auctions at https://www.yieldcurve.pro/auctions

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Treasury Auctions

Recent:
8W 01/22: C+
4W 01/22: C
10Y 01/22: C+

Upcoming:
13W 01/26
26W 01/26
2Y 01/26

Grading methodology:
https://www.yieldcurve.pro/blog/treasury-auction-grades-001

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Current yield curve regime is Bear Steep.

🐻📈

Slope was constructed from 10 Yr and 2 Yr tenors with a 65 day lookback.

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/regimes

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Yield curve slope measured using the 10 Yr Bond and 3 Mo Bill.

The current slope is at 54 bps. 📈

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/slopes

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Treasury yields for the 3 Mo Bill and the 10 Yr Bond.

The 3 Mo and the 10 Yr ended at 3.70% and 4.24%, respectively.

https://www.yieldcurve.pro/levels

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Great post from the St Louis Fed: Understanding the “Swoosh”-Shaped Yield Curve for Treasuries

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/oct/understanding-swoosh-shaped-yield-curve-treasuries