Xander Snyder
@xandersnyder.bsky.social
Senior Commercial Real Estate Economist at First American Financial
New Homes: Builders hold an advantage - they can sell standing inventory with incentives.
November 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
New Homes: Builders hold an advantage - they can sell standing inventory with incentives.
Supply: Inventory climbs slowly as rate lock loosens, but remains below historic norms.
November 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Supply: Inventory climbs slowly as rate lock loosens, but remains below historic norms.
Distress: Remains localized; strong homeowner equity (record high) prevents systemic risk.
November 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Distress: Remains localized; strong homeowner equity (record high) prevents systemic risk.
Regions: Midwest/Northeast stay tight; South/West adjust as supply increases.
November 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Regions: Midwest/Northeast stay tight; South/West adjust as supply increases.
Demand: Life-cycle events (marriage, kids, moves) sustain transactions; millennials and Gen Z add long-term ownership demand.
November 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Demand: Life-cycle events (marriage, kids, moves) sustain transactions; millennials and Gen Z add long-term ownership demand.
Affordability: Mortgage rates likely stay in the low 6s; modest price growth and wage gains drive incremental improvement.
November 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Affordability: Mortgage rates likely stay in the low 6s; modest price growth and wage gains drive incremental improvement.
Lenders are increasingly stepping back into the market. While life companies eased slightly, momentum is positive across all other major lender types. The recovery remains uneven - industrial and investor lending are leading, office and health care are lagging.
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Lenders are increasingly stepping back into the market. While life companies eased slightly, momentum is positive across all other major lender types. The recovery remains uneven - industrial and investor lending are leading, office and health care are lagging.
...total CRE originations stand roughly 12% higher than in 3Q19, underscoring a steady but uneven recovery across lender types.
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
...total CRE originations stand roughly 12% higher than in 3Q19, underscoring a steady but uneven recovery across lender types.
...compared with the strong rebound seen in 2024 but remains well above its late‑2022 trough, indicating continued improvement in market liquidity.
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
...compared with the strong rebound seen in 2024 but remains well above its late‑2022 trough, indicating continued improvement in market liquidity.
Overall, lending growth is broad‑based but uneven, with office and health care still lagging the broader recovery.
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Overall, lending growth is broad‑based but uneven, with office and health care still lagging the broader recovery.
Compared with pre‑pandemic levels, industrial originations are about twice those of 2019, reflecting continued strength in logistics and manufacturing. Multifamily, retail, and hotel volumes now sit slightly above their 2019 levels, with office lending roughly 35% below and health care 5% lower.
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Compared with pre‑pandemic levels, industrial originations are about twice those of 2019, reflecting continued strength in logistics and manufacturing. Multifamily, retail, and hotel volumes now sit slightly above their 2019 levels, with office lending roughly 35% below and health care 5% lower.
... by about 181% year over year, followed by retail at roughly 100%, hotel at 66%, and multifamily at 27%. Industrial lending also rose, though only modestly at 5%, while health care was the lone category to contract, down 43%.
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
... by about 181% year over year, followed by retail at roughly 100%, hotel at 66%, and multifamily at 27%. Industrial lending also rose, though only modestly at 5%, while health care was the lone category to contract, down 43%.
Still, in most major Midwestern cities, property prices and transaction volume have grown over the last year. Detroit is the sole standout.
November 4, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Still, in most major Midwestern cities, property prices and transaction volume have grown over the last year. Detroit is the sole standout.
Investors are pivoting from mega-warehouses toward smaller, more flexible facilities. Why? These assets better fit today’s demand profile - diversified tenants, lower capital costs, and less exposure to a single user or lease event.
November 4, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Investors are pivoting from mega-warehouses toward smaller, more flexible facilities. Why? These assets better fit today’s demand profile - diversified tenants, lower capital costs, and less exposure to a single user or lease event.
Liquidity varies widely: Minneapolis remains active, while other metros, like Detroit, are seeing slower transaction flows relative to inventory. This can be seen in varying turnover rates, which indicates how quickly each city's industrial market is being transacted.
November 4, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Liquidity varies widely: Minneapolis remains active, while other metros, like Detroit, are seeing slower transaction flows relative to inventory. This can be seen in varying turnover rates, which indicates how quickly each city's industrial market is being transacted.
After peaking in 2021, industrial transaction volumes across the Midwest have slowed.
November 4, 2025 at 6:32 PM
After peaking in 2021, industrial transaction volumes across the Midwest have slowed.
As shown in the chart below, shorter-term Treasuries have already rolled off more quickly in recent years from the Fed's portfolio, leaving the Fed overweight longer-dated Treasuries (which is...
October 29, 2025 at 7:07 PM
As shown in the chart below, shorter-term Treasuries have already rolled off more quickly in recent years from the Fed's portfolio, leaving the Fed overweight longer-dated Treasuries (which is...
Despite ongoing affordability challenges, homeownership continues to be a major vehicle for wealth accumulation over time. Even homeowners who bought at the 2006 peak have built roughly $181K in equity, according to First American Data & Analytics, outpacing what renters paid over that same period.
October 29, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Despite ongoing affordability challenges, homeownership continues to be a major vehicle for wealth accumulation over time. Even homeowners who bought at the 2006 peak have built roughly $181K in equity, according to First American Data & Analytics, outpacing what renters paid over that same period.
Together, these factors have pushed affordability to its best level in nearly a year, and has driven affordability gains in 39 of the top 50 metros markets tracked.
October 2, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Together, these factors have pushed affordability to its best level in nearly a year, and has driven affordability gains in 39 of the top 50 metros markets tracked.
📈 Tentative good news for hopeful homebuyers: affordability in the U.S. has improved for the fifth month in a row, rising ~2.3% year-over-year in July. That improvement was driven by a combination of lower mortgage rates, slower home price growth, and rising incomes.
October 2, 2025 at 6:51 PM
📈 Tentative good news for hopeful homebuyers: affordability in the U.S. has improved for the fifth month in a row, rising ~2.3% year-over-year in July. That improvement was driven by a combination of lower mortgage rates, slower home price growth, and rising incomes.
Industrial properties are getting bigger in most major Midwestern cities. Over the years, the delivery of large industrial properties has increased the average industrial property size in most major Midwestern cities.
September 29, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Industrial properties are getting bigger in most major Midwestern cities. Over the years, the delivery of large industrial properties has increased the average industrial property size in most major Midwestern cities.
Existing home sales are stuck in a slump, hovering near 4 million annually, or roughly 21% below the pre-pandemic average rate of 5.4 million. What's causing this persistent slowness?
September 24, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Existing home sales are stuck in a slump, hovering near 4 million annually, or roughly 21% below the pre-pandemic average rate of 5.4 million. What's causing this persistent slowness?
-- Which markets have seen the largest growth in their industrial inventory over the last five years.
September 22, 2025 at 5:32 PM
-- Which markets have seen the largest growth in their industrial inventory over the last five years.
-- Which markets have more logistics space versus flex space versus other types of industrial space
September 22, 2025 at 5:32 PM
-- Which markets have more logistics space versus flex space versus other types of industrial space
-- How vacancy rates have changed over the last five years, comparing pre-pandemic to peak construction to the latest numbers, and what that tells us about each market
September 22, 2025 at 5:32 PM
-- How vacancy rates have changed over the last five years, comparing pre-pandemic to peak construction to the latest numbers, and what that tells us about each market