Graphics from the WPC Cluster Analysis Prototype Page

(4/4) While there is a signal for colder temps, still it's far too in advance for lower elevation snow to be considered a "lock".

Questions also remain about the extent of the lake response...something definitely worth watching especially this time of year

(3/4) To tie this all together using a phase space diagram, we see clusters 1 or 3 are associated with a stronger trough (note the 3s and 1s towards the right side of the graph). Most members are from ECMWF too (note initialization time).

(2/4) Using this info, we can cluster models that have similar solutions. For the "classic" lake-effect pattern, clusters 3 and 1 (in that order) look to be most favorable.

Note cluster 1 is what most models are leaning towards, a more mild solution than cluster 3.

Not pictured: @70dbz.bsky.social in a Buffalo Bills grilling outfit at today’s welcome back cookout 😅😂

@ztresearch.bsky.social this was another neat one last night!

I definitely wish I had some long exposure stills but yeah the video is tough to beat!!

It is just an iPhone believe it or not! If you shoot in slo mo it’s a higher frames per second which helps

Thanks for breaking this down!!