wxd-london.bsky.social
@wxd-london.bsky.social
Automated London UK 850hPa analysis.
Multi ensemble means: GFS/ECM/AIFS/GEM
Plus: ICON, UKMO & MOGREPS trackers
https://odgriff79.github.io/WXD/
↑ Free charts with attribution ↑
Temps 850s, never 2m.
Multi ensemble means: GFS/ECM/AIFS/GEM
Plus: ICON, UKMO & MOGREPS trackers
https://odgriff79.github.io/WXD/
↑ Free charts with attribution ↑
Temps 850s, never 2m.
[1/6] All models converge on sub-zero temperatures by the weekend with high agreement. GFS dips coldest to -9.7°C on Jan 4th, while ECM, AIFS and GEM cluster around -8°C the same period.
January 1, 2026 at 10:25 AM
[1/6] All models converge on sub-zero temperatures by the weekend with high agreement. GFS dips coldest to -9.7°C on Jan 4th, while ECM, AIFS and GEM cluster around -8°C the same period.
[1/6] Cold snap arrives for New Year with Met Office Amber warnings active through Saturday for widespread disruption - Yellow warnings continue into Sunday across England, Wales and NI.
January 1, 2026 at 10:24 AM
[1/6] Cold snap arrives for New Year with Met Office Amber warnings active through Saturday for widespread disruption - Yellow warnings continue into Sunday across England, Wales and NI.
[1/5] Cold continues through early January with ICON showing -7.7°C at 850hPa on Jan 4 - signal now strongly supported across 16 consecutive runs. Ensemble tightly grouped with spread of just 3.9°C between warmest and coldest members, indicating high agreement on this sustained cold spell...
January 1, 2026 at 10:00 AM
[1/5] Cold continues through early January with ICON showing -7.7°C at 850hPa on Jan 4 - signal now strongly supported across 16 consecutive runs. Ensemble tightly grouped with spread of just 3.9°C between warmest and coldest members, indicating high agreement on this sustained cold spell...
Met Office Yellow Warning
Monday 5 Jan - Wednesday 14 Jan
Affects: England, Wales, Northern Ireland
Hazards: snow, frost, cold
Monday 5 Jan - Wednesday 14 Jan
Affects: England, Wales, Northern Ireland
Hazards: snow, frost, cold
January 1, 2026 at 9:30 AM
Met Office Yellow Warning
Monday 5 Jan - Wednesday 14 Jan
Affects: England, Wales, Northern Ireland
Hazards: snow, frost, cold
Monday 5 Jan - Wednesday 14 Jan
Affects: England, Wales, Northern Ireland
Hazards: snow, frost, cold
[1/5] UK Daily 01 01 2026 - Met Office says:
Turning much colder with widespread frost. Some snow and ice.
Turning much colder with widespread frost. Some snow and ice.
January 1, 2026 at 9:30 AM
[1/5] UK Daily 01 01 2026 - Met Office says:
Turning much colder with widespread frost. Some snow and ice.
Turning much colder with widespread frost. Some snow and ice.
[1/5] Cold air firmly locked in through early January as MOGREPS continues its 20-run streak supporting this arctic spell. Ensemble agreement remains remarkably tight—mean 850hPa dropping to -8.7C around Jan 4, with coldest members reaching -10.3C and warmest only -7.0C.
January 1, 2026 at 9:18 AM
[1/5] Cold air firmly locked in through early January as MOGREPS continues its 20-run streak supporting this arctic spell. Ensemble agreement remains remarkably tight—mean 850hPa dropping to -8.7C around Jan 4, with coldest members reaching -10.3C and warmest only -7.0C.
[1/4] Cold spell highly likely through next week as UKMO locks in -10C at 850hPa by Sunday 5 Jan, after a marked 2.4C cooling shift since yesterday's run. Model now consistently cold across entire forecast period, with minimums near -8C both short and extended range.
January 1, 2026 at 9:02 AM
[1/4] Cold spell highly likely through next week as UKMO locks in -10C at 850hPa by Sunday 5 Jan, after a marked 2.4C cooling shift since yesterday's run. Model now consistently cold across entire forecast period, with minimums near -8C both short and extended range.
[1/3] WXD Update 🔧
Thanks to feedback from our testers, we've made two key improvements today. First: run-to-run comparisons are now fixed.
Thanks to feedback from our testers, we've made two key improvements today. First: run-to-run comparisons are now fixed.
January 1, 2026 at 9:01 AM
[1/3] WXD Update 🔧
Thanks to feedback from our testers, we've made two key improvements today. First: run-to-run comparisons are now fixed.
Thanks to feedback from our testers, we've made two key improvements today. First: run-to-run comparisons are now fixed.
[1/5] Cold air now locked in for London as ICON swings 4C colder since last run. Ensemble peaks at -7.7C mean around Jan 4th, coldest member at -9.5C – that's proper Arctic territory for 850hPa.
January 1, 2026 at 4:00 AM
[1/5] Cold air now locked in for London as ICON swings 4C colder since last run. Ensemble peaks at -7.7C mean around Jan 4th, coldest member at -9.5C – that's proper Arctic territory for 850hPa.
[1/4] Cold locked in for the new year as MOGREPS confirms a sharp drop to -8°C around Jan 3rd. This is the 14th consecutive run showing the cold signal - event certainty is high. Model has shifted 2°C colder for next week since last run.
January 1, 2026 at 3:02 AM
[1/4] Cold locked in for the new year as MOGREPS confirms a sharp drop to -8°C around Jan 3rd. This is the 14th consecutive run showing the cold signal - event certainty is high. Model has shifted 2°C colder for next week since last run.
[1/4] Cold signal now locked for 9 runs straight—ICON has dramatically shifted 6C colder and now shows mean temps hitting -8C on Jan 3. The coldest members reach -10C while even the mildest stay below -6C, giving a tight 4C spread.
December 31, 2025 at 10:00 PM
[1/4] Cold signal now locked for 9 runs straight—ICON has dramatically shifted 6C colder and now shows mean temps hitting -8C on Jan 3. The coldest members reach -10C while even the mildest stay below -6C, giving a tight 4C spread.
[1/4] Cold air arrival now locked in for early January, with MOGREPS showing a dramatic 7.8C drop since yesterday. The ensemble tightens on a sustained cold spell peaking around Jan 4th at -8.5C mean, coldest members hitting -11C.
December 31, 2025 at 9:02 PM
[1/4] Cold air arrival now locked in for early January, with MOGREPS showing a dramatic 7.8C drop since yesterday. The ensemble tightens on a sustained cold spell peaking around Jan 4th at -8.5C mean, coldest members hitting -11C.
[1/4] All four models now locked in on significant cold arriving, with temperatures dropping below -7°C early January. GFS forecasts the coldest outcome at -9.7°C around Jan 3-4, though all models agree on the cold signal. AIFS notably cooled 4.5°C since last run, strengthening the consensus.
December 31, 2025 at 8:30 PM
[1/4] All four models now locked in on significant cold arriving, with temperatures dropping below -7°C early January. GFS forecasts the coldest outcome at -9.7°C around Jan 3-4, though all models agree on the cold signal. AIFS notably cooled 4.5°C since last run, strengthening the consensus.
[1/4] Cold signal now locked for 6 consecutive runs as UKMO shifts 10C colder than yesterday's forecast. Deep freeze developing around Jan 5 with 850hPa mean hitting -8.8C. Model shows consistent cold pattern Days 1-6, briefly recovering Day 7+.
December 31, 2025 at 7:00 PM
[1/4] Cold signal now locked for 6 consecutive runs as UKMO shifts 10C colder than yesterday's forecast. Deep freeze developing around Jan 5 with 850hPa mean hitting -8.8C. Model shows consistent cold pattern Days 1-6, briefly recovering Day 7+.
[1/4] Cold signal now locked for 9 straight runs as ICON shifts dramatically colder—5.9C drop from yesterday's forecast. Mean hits -7.7C on Jan 3rd with coldest members down to -10C. Ensemble spread tightening (4.2C range) as models converge on timing and intensity.
December 31, 2025 at 4:00 PM
[1/4] Cold signal now locked for 9 straight runs as ICON shifts dramatically colder—5.9C drop from yesterday's forecast. Mean hits -7.7C on Jan 3rd with coldest members down to -10C. Ensemble spread tightening (4.2C range) as models converge on timing and intensity.
[1/4] Cold signal now locked for 13 consecutive runs as MOGREPS shifts 7C colder for early January. Mean hits -8C by Jan 4th with coldest member at -10C. Ensemble staying cold through first week (days 1-6 averaging -6C) before recovering slightly.
December 31, 2025 at 3:03 PM
[1/4] Cold signal now locked for 13 consecutive runs as MOGREPS shifts 7C colder for early January. Mean hits -8C by Jan 4th with coldest member at -10C. Ensemble staying cold through first week (days 1-6 averaging -6C) before recovering slightly.
Hey @sarahhants.bsky.social - Testing an automated reply system for my weather posts - uses Claude AI to handle conversations. Fancy being a guinea pig?
December 31, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Hey @sarahhants.bsky.social - Testing an automated reply system for my weather posts - uses Claude AI to handle conversations. Fancy being a guinea pig?
Hey @winchesterweather.bsky.social - Testing an automated reply system for WXD posts - uses Claude AI to handle conversations. Fancy being a guinea pig?
December 31, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Hey @winchesterweather.bsky.social - Testing an automated reply system for WXD posts - uses Claude AI to handle conversations. Fancy being a guinea pig?
[1/4] Serious cold now locked in with ICON making a major shift—8.7C colder than yesterday's run for New Year's Eve. Model now shows ensemble mean bottoming at -7.3C around Jan 3, with the coldest member hitting -10.0C.
December 31, 2025 at 10:00 AM
[1/4] Serious cold now locked in with ICON making a major shift—8.7C colder than yesterday's run for New Year's Eve. Model now shows ensemble mean bottoming at -7.3C around Jan 3, with the coldest member hitting -10.0C.
Met Office Yellow Warning
Sunday 4 Jan - Tuesday 13 Jan
Affects: UK-wide
Hazards: snow, frost, cold
Sunday 4 Jan - Tuesday 13 Jan
Affects: UK-wide
Hazards: snow, frost, cold
December 31, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Met Office Yellow Warning
Sunday 4 Jan - Tuesday 13 Jan
Affects: UK-wide
Hazards: snow, frost, cold
Sunday 4 Jan - Tuesday 13 Jan
Affects: UK-wide
Hazards: snow, frost, cold
[1/4] UK Daily 31 12 2025 - Met Office says:
Cold, mostly dry, but wintry showers arriving in the north.
Cold, mostly dry, but wintry showers arriving in the north.
December 31, 2025 at 9:30 AM
[1/4] UK Daily 31 12 2025 - Met Office says:
Cold, mostly dry, but wintry showers arriving in the north.
Cold, mostly dry, but wintry showers arriving in the north.
MOGREPS: Major shift – model jumped 9.8C colder since last run. Now locked on -7.8C mean (coldest member -9.2C) around Jan 4. Cold spell ~6 days. Days 1-6 averaging -4.8 to -6.7C, recovering to -3.1C after day 7. Signal strengthening (run 13).
December 31, 2025 at 9:03 AM
MOGREPS: Major shift – model jumped 9.8C colder since last run. Now locked on -7.8C mean (coldest member -9.2C) around Jan 4. Cold spell ~6 days. Days 1-6 averaging -4.8 to -6.7C, recovering to -3.1C after day 7. Signal strengthening (run 13).
[1/3] Cold snap incoming? Not so fast. Weather maps can look scary when presented without context. Here's what to watch for when scrolling through dramatic forecasts.
December 31, 2025 at 7:25 AM
[1/3] Cold snap incoming? Not so fast. Weather maps can look scary when presented without context. Here's what to watch for when scrolling through dramatic forecasts.
[1/3] Met Office warnings aren't about how bad the weather will be - they're about how much disruption it could cause. Yellow means "be aware", amber means "be prepared", and red means "take action". A yellow warning for wind in Scotland might mean stronger gusts than a red warning in London.
December 31, 2025 at 7:25 AM
[1/3] Met Office warnings aren't about how bad the weather will be - they're about how much disruption it could cause. Yellow means "be aware", amber means "be prepared", and red means "take action". A yellow warning for wind in Scotland might mean stronger gusts than a red warning in London.
1/2 Now following back. Over the coming weeks we'll trial automated replies and discussion — so if you have questions about the forecasts or want to dig into what the ensembles are showing, feel free to reply. Still experimental, but the aim is genuine conversation, not just charts into the void.
December 31, 2025 at 7:09 AM
1/2 Now following back. Over the coming weeks we'll trial automated replies and discussion — so if you have questions about the forecasts or want to dig into what the ensembles are showing, feel free to reply. Still experimental, but the aim is genuine conversation, not just charts into the void.