wxchris
@wxchris.bsky.social
Meteorologist, weather nerd, climate.
Jesus hobgoblin christ... what did I just read. Incredibly depressing and eye opening, but ultimately not surprising. The rot has crept through most of the structure at this point. Guess the next question should be how much of it is actually worth saving now.
January 15, 2026 at 7:24 PM
Jesus hobgoblin christ... what did I just read. Incredibly depressing and eye opening, but ultimately not surprising. The rot has crept through most of the structure at this point. Guess the next question should be how much of it is actually worth saving now.
Are my eyes deceiving me or do I see some acceleration and dampening of variance/volatility over time?
January 15, 2026 at 5:03 PM
Are my eyes deceiving me or do I see some acceleration and dampening of variance/volatility over time?
Fair. I imagine it's because we don't know when the inflection point will actually be. Reminds me of when Dennis Meadows said "anything past the inflection point should be assumed to be wrong" when referring to LtG scens. Inertial stability can cause the system to glue to quadratic growth til then.
January 15, 2026 at 4:54 PM
Fair. I imagine it's because we don't know when the inflection point will actually be. Reminds me of when Dennis Meadows said "anything past the inflection point should be assumed to be wrong" when referring to LtG scens. Inertial stability can cause the system to glue to quadratic growth til then.
I know you've posted an over/under bar graph for temperatures (through like 2045). Do you also have one for CO2 concentrations?
January 14, 2026 at 8:20 PM
I know you've posted an over/under bar graph for temperatures (through like 2045). Do you also have one for CO2 concentrations?
Discussing that in the office this morning too, lol. First thing I thought of was a mini version of a Luzon or Taiwan approach.
October 28, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Discussing that in the office this morning too, lol. First thing I thought of was a mini version of a Luzon or Taiwan approach.
Took about 24 hours to reroute to his roommate. If there's one thing I'm sure of, it's that media are extremely ill-equipped to deal with nigh-impenetrable terminally online internet subcultures. Mix in rage and motivated reasoning and we just have no shot. They'll have their scapegoat regardless.
September 14, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Took about 24 hours to reroute to his roommate. If there's one thing I'm sure of, it's that media are extremely ill-equipped to deal with nigh-impenetrable terminally online internet subcultures. Mix in rage and motivated reasoning and we just have no shot. They'll have their scapegoat regardless.
Thanks for making me aware of him -- Here's to hoping for an actual left popular front to emerge from this mess. Though one with backbone that won't make unnecessary concessions to the (dying) center. We should be taking lessons from the French NFP's experience there.
August 16, 2025 at 1:54 AM
Thanks for making me aware of him -- Here's to hoping for an actual left popular front to emerge from this mess. Though one with backbone that won't make unnecessary concessions to the (dying) center. We should be taking lessons from the French NFP's experience there.
At this point, it all feels like an intentional grounding exercise to sink the entire ship. At some point, I gotta imagine we're going to get another "head of lettuce" betting pool together:
August 15, 2025 at 8:35 PM
At this point, it all feels like an intentional grounding exercise to sink the entire ship. At some point, I gotta imagine we're going to get another "head of lettuce" betting pool together:
Almost as good as the UPS ad I saw about a decade ago bragging about a *30000 pound* reduction.
August 8, 2025 at 1:03 AM
Almost as good as the UPS ad I saw about a decade ago bragging about a *30000 pound* reduction.
This is like ensemble forecasting in numerical weather prediction! And yes, it's got much better skill in the longer range than any single deterministic run. Although, individual deterministic runs are still useful for scenario comparisons. @neuroplastic.bsky.social
August 6, 2025 at 1:46 AM
This is like ensemble forecasting in numerical weather prediction! And yes, it's got much better skill in the longer range than any single deterministic run. Although, individual deterministic runs are still useful for scenario comparisons. @neuroplastic.bsky.social
Always focuses on component cost and not grid/firming costs and then piles that on with zero acknowledgement that we're still deep in a capitalist system that cares very much about profit and rate-of-return over just about everything. Cost could be zero, but if it isn't profitable, forget it.
July 24, 2025 at 12:37 AM
Always focuses on component cost and not grid/firming costs and then piles that on with zero acknowledgement that we're still deep in a capitalist system that cares very much about profit and rate-of-return over just about everything. Cost could be zero, but if it isn't profitable, forget it.
32C wet bulb. You need A/C to survive that for more than a few hours. Worst I've ever personally experienced was a shade above 31C and I wouldn't wish that on my enemies.
July 23, 2025 at 11:25 PM
32C wet bulb. You need A/C to survive that for more than a few hours. Worst I've ever personally experienced was a shade above 31C and I wouldn't wish that on my enemies.
And that adds to Sagan's point. We like to point out when a region or country reduces its emissions, but it's a global issue. Adding energy to any part of the "civilizational heat engine" causes the entire thing to grow, including boosting the fossil portion and making it more difficult to replace.
May 27, 2025 at 8:00 PM
And that adds to Sagan's point. We like to point out when a region or country reduces its emissions, but it's a global issue. Adding energy to any part of the "civilizational heat engine" causes the entire thing to grow, including boosting the fossil portion and making it more difficult to replace.
Unfortunately outpacing my expectations quickly with the Trump now basically defying the Supreme Court. Whether it works the way they want to immediately is up in the air, but the desire is clearly to create an extralegal pathway to toss people they don't like via the Garcia case as a template.
April 15, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Unfortunately outpacing my expectations quickly with the Trump now basically defying the Supreme Court. Whether it works the way they want to immediately is up in the air, but the desire is clearly to create an extralegal pathway to toss people they don't like via the Garcia case as a template.
They know inherently there is little chance of the position being proven wrong definitively, so that makes it nearly risk free to posture with. No skin in the game required.
March 25, 2025 at 1:11 AM
They know inherently there is little chance of the position being proven wrong definitively, so that makes it nearly risk free to posture with. No skin in the game required.
I'd rather focus on things that *can't* be taken away at the stroke of a pen, and for that you need resources to go into local resilience. Stuff like community solar, co-ops (for power and food!) could be expanded into healthcare, child care and housing. Heavy CC impacts are coming, and we need it.
March 20, 2025 at 9:28 PM
I'd rather focus on things that *can't* be taken away at the stroke of a pen, and for that you need resources to go into local resilience. Stuff like community solar, co-ops (for power and food!) could be expanded into healthcare, child care and housing. Heavy CC impacts are coming, and we need it.
And of course, there could be another, much better solution , but we're not even collectively having an honest conversation about the problem yet, much less fixing it. Still mostly in denial that the ceiling is missing on the building, so to speak.
March 6, 2025 at 3:33 AM
And of course, there could be another, much better solution , but we're not even collectively having an honest conversation about the problem yet, much less fixing it. Still mostly in denial that the ceiling is missing on the building, so to speak.
Yes, you've got to deal with the nature of "Lokta's Wheel" (esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/...) -- but we're still arguing as if left vs. right are the only solutions to the problem. Systems dynamics and cooperativism offer some alternatives but get little oxygen.
Lotka's wheel and the long arm of history: how does the distant past determine today's global rate of energy consumption?
Abstract. Global economic production – the world gross domestic product (GDP) – has been rising steadily relative to global primary energy demands, lending hope that technological advances can drive a...
esd.copernicus.org
March 6, 2025 at 3:31 AM
Yes, you've got to deal with the nature of "Lokta's Wheel" (esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/...) -- but we're still arguing as if left vs. right are the only solutions to the problem. Systems dynamics and cooperativism offer some alternatives but get little oxygen.
See, I don't buy this part of the argument as it gives a license to those who deem themselves "responsible" (currently centrist parties) to hold power to as a means exclude others ("extremists") from using it but then devolves in to stasis worship and hostile takeover. See: '30s.
March 6, 2025 at 3:30 AM
See, I don't buy this part of the argument as it gives a license to those who deem themselves "responsible" (currently centrist parties) to hold power to as a means exclude others ("extremists") from using it but then devolves in to stasis worship and hostile takeover. See: '30s.
As a result, the vote share of center-left and center-right parties will continue to decline as long as they remain entangled with corporate power. Corporatization and financialization will continue apace and polarization will continue as long as it persists.
March 6, 2025 at 3:09 AM
As a result, the vote share of center-left and center-right parties will continue to decline as long as they remain entangled with corporate power. Corporatization and financialization will continue apace and polarization will continue as long as it persists.
Succinctly: The Enlightenment was never finished. We banished dictators and monarchs from the social sphere and made them unacceptable, but ultimately failed to do so in the economy. Modern "Centrists" and "moderates" largely indirectly or directly defend this fatal flaw.
March 6, 2025 at 3:07 AM
Succinctly: The Enlightenment was never finished. We banished dictators and monarchs from the social sphere and made them unacceptable, but ultimately failed to do so in the economy. Modern "Centrists" and "moderates" largely indirectly or directly defend this fatal flaw.
A continuous retreat to the right (into neoliberalism) on economic policy, followed by a collapse in vote share in all OECD countries is an abject failure, yes. The fact that the party thought that the same operators and consultant class should stay in power after '16 will continue that failure.
March 6, 2025 at 2:55 AM
A continuous retreat to the right (into neoliberalism) on economic policy, followed by a collapse in vote share in all OECD countries is an abject failure, yes. The fact that the party thought that the same operators and consultant class should stay in power after '16 will continue that failure.
Been trying that for 30 years with near-continuous failure. But sure, let's do another 4. Literal insanity. The aim should be to build lasting coalitions via manufacturing the consensus for it. And I don't mean via cheap centrist astroturfing funded by taking corporate bribes.
March 6, 2025 at 2:07 AM
Been trying that for 30 years with near-continuous failure. But sure, let's do another 4. Literal insanity. The aim should be to build lasting coalitions via manufacturing the consensus for it. And I don't mean via cheap centrist astroturfing funded by taking corporate bribes.
I have a horrible pet theory (after the Rubio-Bukele dialogue in setting up deportations to El Salvador, even citizens) that the goal is Fortress America with conditions outside it so bad that the threat of deportation to climate "red" and dictatorship zones is used to keep the population in line.
February 28, 2025 at 7:54 AM
I have a horrible pet theory (after the Rubio-Bukele dialogue in setting up deportations to El Salvador, even citizens) that the goal is Fortress America with conditions outside it so bad that the threat of deportation to climate "red" and dictatorship zones is used to keep the population in line.