Politico says they’re waiting for him to get back to the capitol

Any thoughts on how this pattern played out in Indianapolis and the subsequent city-county consolidation?

Ok but supply management is bad bc farm subsidies are bad. Now if the US wanted to stop spending billions subsidizing corn that would be great too.

The dev Econ prof (massive jays fan) is gonna kill our midterm average now.

Probably the strongest case (pst WWII) for inflation expectations. Nobody thought the CB would stick to bringing inflation to target so nobody invested like growth would actually happen at that rate or ask for the nominal returns needed for it.

I didn’t realize Paul Ryan inspired so many people.

So then if Fed cuts it gives license to Trump to do anything bc the smoothed path to a lower gdp won’t trigger anything that would scare them away.

I expect the chain to be more deflation => markets down for growth reasons & lack of equity juicing. If Fed cuts in response (they shouldn’t) then markets recover. Also possible markets don’t go down on expectation of Fed cut, but in this case Fed not cutting sends markets plunging that day.

If the Fed becomes the second mover in this basic game theory model and they accommodate absurd fiscal actions they lose power to threaten the fiscal authority. Ofc in the real world this is mediated by financial markets and expectations.

Expanding on this, in current monetary theory models (assuming no gov default) existence of unique price levels is guaranteed by the central bank implicitly threatening to blow up the economy in response to insane policies (e.g. gov racking up large enough to debt to send bonds sky high).

Yeah but it’s gonna be more of a case study into whether the Fed allows this kind of thing. If they cut to counteract this it throws any incentive the trump admin had for economic stewardship.

Second formulation seems more direct. I don’t see why these would give different results though.

It’s incredibly potent sometimes. I’m in the same boat and my grandparents are like this even though they were good friends with the (Desi) first race relations Commissioner of Ontario.

America is more Canadian than anybody wants to admit

Yeah now you need to win the Indy suburbs for any shot. I hope they try for real in the 5th district.

I really wonder what unanchored inflation expectations look like in the US.

FTPL 💔