#EnergyTradingWeek #EnergyTrading
#EnergyTradingWeek #EnergyTrading
“Forecasts are for a warm Feb. BUT - of the seven >1000 GWHDD Januarys since 1990, all but one were followed by a colder than normal Feb"
It's true: a warm Feb would be unusual after such a cold Jan. But subseasonal models are pointing that way
“Forecasts are for a warm Feb. BUT - of the seven >1000 GWHDD Januarys since 1990, all but one were followed by a colder than normal Feb"
It's true: a warm Feb would be unusual after such a cold Jan. But subseasonal models are pointing that way
High (calibrated) probabilities require BOTH a strong ensemble signal and a good degree of model skill
High (calibrated) probabilities require BOTH a strong ensemble signal and a good degree of model skill
This is a pretty striking failure of the seasonal models, especially given their high skill scores for autumn-initialized ENSO forecasts.
This is a pretty striking failure of the seasonal models, especially given their high skill scores for autumn-initialized ENSO forecasts.