Josh Wolfe
@wolfejosh.bsky.social
Co-Founder @Lux Capital | Trustee @SfiScience
Santa Fe Inst | Chair @CiPrep Coney Island Prep (Brooklyn) | Co-Founder of Carson, Quinn & Bodhi w/ @ltwolfe
Santa Fe Inst | Chair @CiPrep Coney Island Prep (Brooklyn) | Co-Founder of Carson, Quinn & Bodhi w/ @ltwolfe
Reposted by Josh Wolfe
4/ Headlines herald
HANGOVER of what was or
HARBINGER of what will be
low rates
brought future returns forward
pushed past risks out
now reverting
what worked in recent past, won’t work in near future
MASSIVE misallocations + excess indebtedness built up
Markets may FALL 30%+
HANGOVER of what was or
HARBINGER of what will be
low rates
brought future returns forward
pushed past risks out
now reverting
what worked in recent past, won’t work in near future
MASSIVE misallocations + excess indebtedness built up
Markets may FALL 30%+
May 9, 2023 at 12:03 PM
4/ Headlines herald
HANGOVER of what was or
HARBINGER of what will be
low rates
brought future returns forward
pushed past risks out
now reverting
what worked in recent past, won’t work in near future
MASSIVE misallocations + excess indebtedness built up
Markets may FALL 30%+
HANGOVER of what was or
HARBINGER of what will be
low rates
brought future returns forward
pushed past risks out
now reverting
what worked in recent past, won’t work in near future
MASSIVE misallocations + excess indebtedness built up
Markets may FALL 30%+
Reposted by Josh Wolfe
3/ Everyone wants to be invested TODAY––where they ought’ve been 5yrs ago
EXPECT
-widespread surprises
-large layoffs
-big LP pullback (OVERcalled/overallocated)
-GP stress (UNDER-reserved; under duress)
-punishing pay2pays + hi structured terms
-small funds = existential risk
EXPECT
-widespread surprises
-large layoffs
-big LP pullback (OVERcalled/overallocated)
-GP stress (UNDER-reserved; under duress)
-punishing pay2pays + hi structured terms
-small funds = existential risk
May 9, 2023 at 12:02 PM
3/ Everyone wants to be invested TODAY––where they ought’ve been 5yrs ago
EXPECT
-widespread surprises
-large layoffs
-big LP pullback (OVERcalled/overallocated)
-GP stress (UNDER-reserved; under duress)
-punishing pay2pays + hi structured terms
-small funds = existential risk
EXPECT
-widespread surprises
-large layoffs
-big LP pullback (OVERcalled/overallocated)
-GP stress (UNDER-reserved; under duress)
-punishing pay2pays + hi structured terms
-small funds = existential risk
Reposted by Josh Wolfe
2/ from STRIFE to STRIVE
-Lux top 10 co’s have warchests nearly $5B of cash
-PAST prudence ought lead to powerful FUTURE potential
-new rounds 50-80% LOWER
-ownership (entry price) x outcome (exit price) x positiong sizing (based on incremental returns on incremental capital)
-Lux top 10 co’s have warchests nearly $5B of cash
-PAST prudence ought lead to powerful FUTURE potential
-new rounds 50-80% LOWER
-ownership (entry price) x outcome (exit price) x positiong sizing (based on incremental returns on incremental capital)
May 9, 2023 at 12:02 PM
2/ from STRIFE to STRIVE
-Lux top 10 co’s have warchests nearly $5B of cash
-PAST prudence ought lead to powerful FUTURE potential
-new rounds 50-80% LOWER
-ownership (entry price) x outcome (exit price) x positiong sizing (based on incremental returns on incremental capital)
-Lux top 10 co’s have warchests nearly $5B of cash
-PAST prudence ought lead to powerful FUTURE potential
-new rounds 50-80% LOWER
-ownership (entry price) x outcome (exit price) x positiong sizing (based on incremental returns on incremental capital)
4/ Headlines herald
HANGOVER of what was or
HARBINGER of what will be
low rates
brought future returns forward
pushed past risks out
now reverting
what worked in recent past, won’t work in near future
MASSIVE misallocations + excess indebtedness built up
Markets may FALL 30%+
HANGOVER of what was or
HARBINGER of what will be
low rates
brought future returns forward
pushed past risks out
now reverting
what worked in recent past, won’t work in near future
MASSIVE misallocations + excess indebtedness built up
Markets may FALL 30%+
May 9, 2023 at 12:03 PM
4/ Headlines herald
HANGOVER of what was or
HARBINGER of what will be
low rates
brought future returns forward
pushed past risks out
now reverting
what worked in recent past, won’t work in near future
MASSIVE misallocations + excess indebtedness built up
Markets may FALL 30%+
HANGOVER of what was or
HARBINGER of what will be
low rates
brought future returns forward
pushed past risks out
now reverting
what worked in recent past, won’t work in near future
MASSIVE misallocations + excess indebtedness built up
Markets may FALL 30%+
3/ Everyone wants to be invested TODAY––where they ought’ve been 5yrs ago
EXPECT
-widespread surprises
-large layoffs
-big LP pullback (OVERcalled/overallocated)
-GP stress (UNDER-reserved; under duress)
-punishing pay2pays + hi structured terms
-small funds = existential risk
EXPECT
-widespread surprises
-large layoffs
-big LP pullback (OVERcalled/overallocated)
-GP stress (UNDER-reserved; under duress)
-punishing pay2pays + hi structured terms
-small funds = existential risk
May 9, 2023 at 12:02 PM
3/ Everyone wants to be invested TODAY––where they ought’ve been 5yrs ago
EXPECT
-widespread surprises
-large layoffs
-big LP pullback (OVERcalled/overallocated)
-GP stress (UNDER-reserved; under duress)
-punishing pay2pays + hi structured terms
-small funds = existential risk
EXPECT
-widespread surprises
-large layoffs
-big LP pullback (OVERcalled/overallocated)
-GP stress (UNDER-reserved; under duress)
-punishing pay2pays + hi structured terms
-small funds = existential risk
2/ from STRIFE to STRIVE
-Lux top 10 co’s have warchests nearly $5B of cash
-PAST prudence ought lead to powerful FUTURE potential
-new rounds 50-80% LOWER
-ownership (entry price) x outcome (exit price) x positiong sizing (based on incremental returns on incremental capital)
-Lux top 10 co’s have warchests nearly $5B of cash
-PAST prudence ought lead to powerful FUTURE potential
-new rounds 50-80% LOWER
-ownership (entry price) x outcome (exit price) x positiong sizing (based on incremental returns on incremental capital)
May 9, 2023 at 12:02 PM
2/ from STRIFE to STRIVE
-Lux top 10 co’s have warchests nearly $5B of cash
-PAST prudence ought lead to powerful FUTURE potential
-new rounds 50-80% LOWER
-ownership (entry price) x outcome (exit price) x positiong sizing (based on incremental returns on incremental capital)
-Lux top 10 co’s have warchests nearly $5B of cash
-PAST prudence ought lead to powerful FUTURE potential
-new rounds 50-80% LOWER
-ownership (entry price) x outcome (exit price) x positiong sizing (based on incremental returns on incremental capital)