Andrew B. Watkins
@windjunky.bsky.social
Australian climate scientist rambling about climate drivers, variability, risks, trends & impacts. Once played goalie for Antarctica. Born @ 325ppm.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/drandrewwatkins/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/drandrewwatkins/
For once a plot about cold temperatures. If you're in Melbourne and think its been a whacky November, temperature wise, you're not wrong. That's 20C difference between the months coldest day and months hottest day.
www.baywx.com.au/melbmeantemp...
www.baywx.com.au/melbmeantemp...
November 13, 2025 at 11:34 PM
For once a plot about cold temperatures. If you're in Melbourne and think its been a whacky November, temperature wise, you're not wrong. That's 20C difference between the months coldest day and months hottest day.
www.baywx.com.au/melbmeantemp...
www.baywx.com.au/melbmeantemp...
Classic Melbourne cold front moves up the bay
(Timelapse 4:30-:4:40pm today Monday 10/11/25)
(Timelapse 4:30-:4:40pm today Monday 10/11/25)
November 10, 2025 at 6:16 AM
Classic Melbourne cold front moves up the bay
(Timelapse 4:30-:4:40pm today Monday 10/11/25)
(Timelapse 4:30-:4:40pm today Monday 10/11/25)
November 9, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Projected total water demand may exceed total (natural) water supply before the end of the century in the western United States of America, Mediterranean regions, northern Africa, southern Africa, India, northern China, and southern Australia (red on map).
Paper at: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Paper at: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
November 9, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Projected total water demand may exceed total (natural) water supply before the end of the century in the western United States of America, Mediterranean regions, northern Africa, southern Africa, India, northern China, and southern Australia (red on map).
Paper at: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Paper at: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
National Climate Risk Assessment First Nations report notes disproportional heath impacts, which will only be compounded by restricted access to energy and refrigeration. Report is at:
www.acs.gov.au/documents/f8...
www.acs.gov.au/documents/f8...
November 8, 2025 at 12:04 AM
National Climate Risk Assessment First Nations report notes disproportional heath impacts, which will only be compounded by restricted access to energy and refrigeration. Report is at:
www.acs.gov.au/documents/f8...
www.acs.gov.au/documents/f8...
November 5, 2025 at 10:54 PM
And some great graphics!
November 5, 2025 at 9:30 PM
And some great graphics!
Some interesting information on storms and tropical cyclones that may would have low confidence, and certainly needs more research
November 5, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Some interesting information on storms and tropical cyclones that may would have low confidence, and certainly needs more research
Insurance Australia Group (IAG) Severe Weather in a Changing Climate report
www.iag.com.au/severe-weath...
“The report complements Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment (2025) … together with anticipated impacts for the finance & insurance industry.”
Key Planning Recommendations are given
www.iag.com.au/severe-weath...
“The report complements Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment (2025) … together with anticipated impacts for the finance & insurance industry.”
Key Planning Recommendations are given
November 5, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Insurance Australia Group (IAG) Severe Weather in a Changing Climate report
www.iag.com.au/severe-weath...
“The report complements Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment (2025) … together with anticipated impacts for the finance & insurance industry.”
Key Planning Recommendations are given
www.iag.com.au/severe-weath...
“The report complements Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment (2025) … together with anticipated impacts for the finance & insurance industry.”
Key Planning Recommendations are given
November 4, 2025 at 11:39 PM
“Global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C.”
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
www.unep.org/resources/em...
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
www.unep.org/resources/em...
November 4, 2025 at 11:03 PM
“Global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C.”
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
www.unep.org/resources/em...
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
www.unep.org/resources/em...
New climate classification maps from BoM show the march southwards of the tropics and subtropics over recent decades.
#climatechange
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
#climatechange
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
November 3, 2025 at 9:29 AM
New climate classification maps from BoM show the march southwards of the tropics and subtropics over recent decades.
#climatechange
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
#climatechange
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
November 3, 2025 at 6:14 AM
Remind you of anything?
[Ski Revision - Fading Pleasures ]
[Ski Revision - Fading Pleasures ]
November 2, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Remind you of anything?
[Ski Revision - Fading Pleasures ]
[Ski Revision - Fading Pleasures ]
Spencer Creek (Australia) snow depths, updated for 2025 (which many called a bumper year)
Source: snowdepth.info
Source: snowdepth.info
November 2, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Spencer Creek (Australia) snow depths, updated for 2025 (which many called a bumper year)
Source: snowdepth.info
Source: snowdepth.info
A career highlight - plot we developed (7-day rainfall accumulation on the WATL website) appeared in the climate change episode of Hollowmen!
November 2, 2025 at 2:44 AM
A career highlight - plot we developed (7-day rainfall accumulation on the WATL website) appeared in the climate change episode of Hollowmen!
October 30, 2025 at 10:02 PM
And searching for MetEye on the new bom site gives 33,000 results
October 22, 2025 at 3:39 AM
And searching for MetEye on the new bom site gives 33,000 results
On the day of record heat and windstorms my links to BoM MetEye give a ‘page not found’.
Brilliant.
Brilliant.
October 22, 2025 at 3:37 AM
On the day of record heat and windstorms my links to BoM MetEye give a ‘page not found’.
Brilliant.
Brilliant.
Insurance Council of Australia’s ‘Insurance Catastrophe Resilience Report’ shows $22.5 billion in insured losses over last 5 years — a 67% increase over previous 5-year period.
Of the ~242,000 homes in severe/extreme flood risk, ~77% do NOT have flood cover
insurancecouncil.com.au/wp-content/u...
Of the ~242,000 homes in severe/extreme flood risk, ~77% do NOT have flood cover
insurancecouncil.com.au/wp-content/u...
October 18, 2025 at 4:19 AM
Insurance Council of Australia’s ‘Insurance Catastrophe Resilience Report’ shows $22.5 billion in insured losses over last 5 years — a 67% increase over previous 5-year period.
Of the ~242,000 homes in severe/extreme flood risk, ~77% do NOT have flood cover
insurancecouncil.com.au/wp-content/u...
Of the ~242,000 homes in severe/extreme flood risk, ~77% do NOT have flood cover
insurancecouncil.com.au/wp-content/u...
The International Court of Justice 2025 determination in “Obligations of States in respect of climate change” notes that States are obliged to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, and to not do so is an internationally wrongful act.
www.icj-cij.org/sites/defaul...
www.icj-cij.org/sites/defaul...
October 11, 2025 at 2:53 AM
The International Court of Justice 2025 determination in “Obligations of States in respect of climate change” notes that States are obliged to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, and to not do so is an internationally wrongful act.
www.icj-cij.org/sites/defaul...
www.icj-cij.org/sites/defaul...
No, negative SAM means westerlies over the land into eastern Australia, so dry and warm. Great paper by EunPa Lim et all. on 2019 SSW event.
doi.org/10.1175/BAMS...
Remember also other climate drivers in 2025 - neg IOD and possible La Nina. Its complex.
doi.org/10.1175/BAMS...
Remember also other climate drivers in 2025 - neg IOD and possible La Nina. Its complex.
October 11, 2025 at 12:03 AM
No, negative SAM means westerlies over the land into eastern Australia, so dry and warm. Great paper by EunPa Lim et all. on 2019 SSW event.
doi.org/10.1175/BAMS...
Remember also other climate drivers in 2025 - neg IOD and possible La Nina. Its complex.
doi.org/10.1175/BAMS...
Remember also other climate drivers in 2025 - neg IOD and possible La Nina. Its complex.
The importance of 'NOW' from IPCC...
"limiting {global} warming to around 1.5°C (2.7°F) requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before **2025** at the latest"
www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/i...
"limiting {global} warming to around 1.5°C (2.7°F) requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before **2025** at the latest"
www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/i...
October 10, 2025 at 11:40 PM
The importance of 'NOW' from IPCC...
"limiting {global} warming to around 1.5°C (2.7°F) requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before **2025** at the latest"
www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/i...
"limiting {global} warming to around 1.5°C (2.7°F) requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before **2025** at the latest"
www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/i...