Will Kiely
@williamkiely.bsky.social
I want to *secure* a very long-lasting, very good future for humanity.
Interested in forecasting and improving discourse around AI and existential risk.
Interested in forecasting and improving discourse around AI and existential risk.
Are you merely saying that estimates aren't *necessary* (weak claim), or are you saying that estimates are *never helpful* (strong claim)? (I sense a possible motte-and-bailey fallacy.)
July 2, 2025 at 5:50 AM
Are you merely saying that estimates aren't *necessary* (weak claim), or are you saying that estimates are *never helpful* (strong claim)? (I sense a possible motte-and-bailey fallacy.)
Awesome :) -- I enjoyed listening to the book in December.
February 12, 2025 at 6:18 AM
Awesome :) -- I enjoyed listening to the book in December.
Random comment, Ethan: Have you been informed that in your audiobook you call RLHF "RHLF" repeatedly?
February 12, 2025 at 6:16 AM
Random comment, Ethan: Have you been informed that in your audiobook you call RLHF "RHLF" repeatedly?
@vitalikca.bsky.social is a fake account. Vitalik's real acxount is: @vitalik.ca . FYI my followers who follow the fake account: @stefanschubert.bsky.social , @ozziegooen.bsky.social , @charlesd353.bsky.social , @ahappier.world @ericneyman.bsky.social
November 29, 2024 at 4:53 PM
@vitalikca.bsky.social is a fake account. Vitalik's real acxount is: @vitalik.ca . FYI my followers who follow the fake account: @stefanschubert.bsky.social , @ozziegooen.bsky.social , @charlesd353.bsky.social , @ahappier.world @ericneyman.bsky.social
My guess is whoever made the graphic put the earliest year mentioned by the person.
E.g Hinton has said 5 to 20 years, so the graphic-maker put 5 years, i.e. 2029. Similarly 2026 is the earliest Amodei has said. Altman has been most ambiguous, but I read him as having a longer timeline than Amodei.
E.g Hinton has said 5 to 20 years, so the graphic-maker put 5 years, i.e. 2029. Similarly 2026 is the earliest Amodei has said. Altman has been most ambiguous, but I read him as having a longer timeline than Amodei.
November 22, 2024 at 7:14 PM
My guess is whoever made the graphic put the earliest year mentioned by the person.
E.g Hinton has said 5 to 20 years, so the graphic-maker put 5 years, i.e. 2029. Similarly 2026 is the earliest Amodei has said. Altman has been most ambiguous, but I read him as having a longer timeline than Amodei.
E.g Hinton has said 5 to 20 years, so the graphic-maker put 5 years, i.e. 2029. Similarly 2026 is the earliest Amodei has said. Altman has been most ambiguous, but I read him as having a longer timeline than Amodei.
Yes it is, thanks.
November 22, 2024 at 7:06 PM
Yes it is, thanks.
The years in the graphic are not accurate for (at least) Hassabis, Amodei, and Altman. Please don't propagate misinformation.
Sources in spreadsheet. E.g. Hassabis is ~2034 as of 2024-10-01: "...AGI system... and that's why I'm on more of a 10-year time scale... I think 10 years is about right."
Sources in spreadsheet. E.g. Hassabis is ~2034 as of 2024-10-01: "...AGI system... and that's why I'm on more of a 10-year time scale... I think 10 years is about right."
Notable Peoples' Views on AI - AI Quotes [Public]
docs.google.com
November 22, 2024 at 10:37 AM
The years in the graphic are not accurate for (at least) Hassabis, Amodei, and Altman. Please don't propagate misinformation.
Sources in spreadsheet. E.g. Hassabis is ~2034 as of 2024-10-01: "...AGI system... and that's why I'm on more of a 10-year time scale... I think 10 years is about right."
Sources in spreadsheet. E.g. Hassabis is ~2034 as of 2024-10-01: "...AGI system... and that's why I'm on more of a 10-year time scale... I think 10 years is about right."
The years in the graphic are not accurate for (at least) Hassabis, Amodei, and Altman.
Sources in this spreadsheet. E.g. Hassabis is ~2034 as of 2024-10-01: "...AGI system... and that's why I'm on more of a 10-year time scale than others... I think 10 years is about right."
Sources in this spreadsheet. E.g. Hassabis is ~2034 as of 2024-10-01: "...AGI system... and that's why I'm on more of a 10-year time scale than others... I think 10 years is about right."
Notable Peoples' Views on AI - AI Quotes [Public]
docs.google.com
November 22, 2024 at 10:35 AM
The years in the graphic are not accurate for (at least) Hassabis, Amodei, and Altman.
Sources in this spreadsheet. E.g. Hassabis is ~2034 as of 2024-10-01: "...AGI system... and that's why I'm on more of a 10-year time scale than others... I think 10 years is about right."
Sources in this spreadsheet. E.g. Hassabis is ~2034 as of 2024-10-01: "...AGI system... and that's why I'm on more of a 10-year time scale than others... I think 10 years is about right."
Hoping it'll be better than alternatives, e.g. due to better recommender algorithms. I already like that 'likes' are public, unlike on X.
November 20, 2024 at 5:36 AM
Hoping it'll be better than alternatives, e.g. due to better recommender algorithms. I already like that 'likes' are public, unlike on X.
People don't bring up neuroscience during explanations of psychological phenomena much in my experience at all, so your 90% experience with a presumably much-larger-denominator-than-mine may be heavily influenced by selection effects.
November 20, 2024 at 5:23 AM
People don't bring up neuroscience during explanations of psychological phenomena much in my experience at all, so your 90% experience with a presumably much-larger-denominator-than-mine may be heavily influenced by selection effects.
I 'followed all' due to thinking you did a good job with this post (the only post of yours I've read yet): www.transformernews.ai/p/what-trump...
What Trump means for AI safety
A repeal of last year's executive order, for one thing
www.transformernews.ai
November 20, 2024 at 5:18 AM
I 'followed all' due to thinking you did a good job with this post (the only post of yours I've read yet): www.transformernews.ai/p/what-trump...