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The paper analyzes the creation and development of three major challenges to existing international regimes in East Asia: Chiang Mai Initiative Internationalization, New Development Bank, and East Asia Summit.

We ask the question why so many new international organizations that are created as a challenge to incumbent ones end up resembling the organizations they sought to challenge, and why members stick with them.

The practical equivalent of drinking bleach to cure COVID.

Conclusion: While we can come up with rational explanations of what just happened, there is little reason to believe that it is beneficial for the US, let alone its alliance system. And the humiliation of a hero and betrayal of his country is shameful as well as counterproductive.

But that temptation should be strongest when allies are growing relative to you in econ, tech, and military, while the external threat is not. Today it’s the opposite - external threat growing and US econ and tech outstripping its allies. This is the time for nurturing alliances, not kicking them.

Possibility 3: As Gilpin argued years ago, hegemons are always tempted to use bilateral power rather than provide public goods, shifting from benevolent to malevolent hegemons. He saw it as partly to reduce growth of allies who were potential rivals (Japan, Germany). (Continued in next post)

Possibility 2: The “realists” in the admin have misread the lessons of the Melian Dialogue. They got as far as “strong do what they will, weak suffer what they must.” But the real lesson is that by nakedly abusing Melos, Athens lost its allies, contributing to LR defeat. We are in dangerous waters.

Possibility number 1: The administration saw Zelensky as an unwilling to compromise in a peace process so they set him up in a place where his personal pride and domestic standing would lead him to push back. If so, next step is basically to force his resignation and find someone more pliant.

Classic “where you sit determines where you stand”

In contrast, Japanese polls always have high levels of no opinion/not sure even when the respondents definitely are familiar with the subject. I tell my students it’s the one place where they can plead culture and I won’t make them justify it.

On the bright side, “arrogant” skews very strongly male.

This is fascinating. One question: do you know why no one leaked the fact that Yoon was seriously considering martial law? It seems like that could have prevented the whole incident. Even if they thought he was convinced not to do it, at least some should have their faith in Yoon’s judgment shaken.