Will Roberts
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will-roberts.bsky.social
Will Roberts
@will-roberts.bsky.social
Husband, Fur Dad, Sports Fan, Sports Stats Nerd, Casual Gamer, Creator of NFL & CFB Production Score model.
Thanks for the feedback! Definitely something I've struggled with too. Turnovers, and especially scores, result in massive values because they just don't happen that often compared to TDs for offensive players. I'll see if I can find a way to tone that down in the off-season. Thanks for the help!
November 23, 2025 at 2:40 AM
Glad you like it! I created the model these cards use. How do you think it does in evaluating player performance? Always open to feedback if you have any!
November 23, 2025 at 1:55 AM
Always happy to take feedback and answer any questions on the model, but hope these changes help make things a little clearer when using it as a tool to evaluate player performance.
October 23, 2025 at 10:02 PM
The expected result is that PAR values will fall generally speaking, but the hope is that it will give a better impression of how that player is performing compared to a starting caliber player at their position.
October 23, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Rather than using the true median, this new version of PAR will compare a player's Production Score to the median of all STARTING players at their position.
October 23, 2025 at 10:02 PM
If a player received significant playing time, regardless of how they performed, they would be near the top of the league by PAR making it hard to tell how they're doing compared to other players.
October 23, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Production Above Replacement (PAR) had been measured against the true median of ALL players in the dataset. While this helps to keep 50% of players above a PAR of 0 and 50% below, it doesn't give us much insight as to how a player is performing.
October 23, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Reposted by Will Roberts
Good stat analysis is always welcome.
September 23, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Oh. So that was a perfectly rational thought. Don't have tons of those.
May 4, 2025 at 2:13 AM
Great speed down the wing and an absolute snipe. Would definitely not complain if we saw more of it!
April 17, 2025 at 12:51 AM
This intro had me laughing way too hard at 7am. Looking forward to the live show this weekend!
March 24, 2025 at 11:15 AM