Milan Weibel 🔷
@weibac.bsky.social
clarity is a public good
weibac.github.io | 🏳️🌈 | 22
weibac.github.io | 🏳️🌈 | 22
or to phrase it in a more normal way im skeptical of brain uploading
November 18, 2025 at 1:18 AM
or to phrase it in a more normal way im skeptical of brain uploading
but for now yes it oversteps
we are not yet strong enough to transcend our biology
we are not yet strong enough to transcend our biology
November 18, 2025 at 12:48 AM
but for now yes it oversteps
we are not yet strong enough to transcend our biology
we are not yet strong enough to transcend our biology
we are obviously not there yet but maybe in the future a brain could be kept alive and even happy outside of a biological body
November 18, 2025 at 12:40 AM
we are obviously not there yet but maybe in the future a brain could be kept alive and even happy outside of a biological body
senate and chamber of deputies looking good for the right
November 17, 2025 at 12:49 AM
senate and chamber of deputies looking good for the right
also maybe people even answer polls strategically
November 16, 2025 at 11:23 PM
also maybe people even answer polls strategically
how many people vote strategically in the first round is a big crux tho and i now realize i'm uncertain about it
November 16, 2025 at 11:19 PM
how many people vote strategically in the first round is a big crux tho and i now realize i'm uncertain about it
afaict in the first round most people vote with their honest preference rather than strategically so in practice it is plurality-but-outputs-two
and wrt the second round it's a competition to seem less bad than the alternative, advantaging centrists
and wrt the second round it's a competition to seem less bad than the alternative, advantaging centrists
November 16, 2025 at 11:19 PM
afaict in the first round most people vote with their honest preference rather than strategically so in practice it is plurality-but-outputs-two
and wrt the second round it's a competition to seem less bad than the alternative, advantaging centrists
and wrt the second round it's a competition to seem less bad than the alternative, advantaging centrists
second round's gonna be tankie aunt vs chilean bolsonaro
welp
welp
November 16, 2025 at 10:34 PM
second round's gonna be tankie aunt vs chilean bolsonaro
welp
welp
polling stations closing
we should have results in a couple hours
alea iacta est
we should have results in a couple hours
alea iacta est
November 16, 2025 at 9:02 PM
polling stations closing
we should have results in a couple hours
alea iacta est
we should have results in a couple hours
alea iacta est
also voting is mandatory and always on the weekend
November 16, 2025 at 8:40 PM
also voting is mandatory and always on the weekend
> At the time AI 2027 was published, their medians were 2028, 2031, and 2031 respectively. Events since then, and improvements to their timelines model, have shifted their distributions outwards somewhat.
November 16, 2025 at 2:44 PM
> At the time AI 2027 was published, their medians were 2028, 2031, and 2031 respectively. Events since then, and improvements to their timelines model, have shifted their distributions outwards somewhat.
Governments can play a role in evaluating AI models (especially for domains that have national security implications), solving coordination problems, such as when the defenses need to be implemented by actors other than AI companies, and understanding and reacting appropriately to new developments.
November 16, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Governments can play a role in evaluating AI models (especially for domains that have national security implications), solving coordination problems, such as when the defenses need to be implemented by actors other than AI companies, and understanding and reacting appropriately to new developments.
> We all agree that building technical expertise within the government to track the progress and diffusion of AI capabilities is helpful for understanding the technology and figuring out its potential societal implications. ....
November 16, 2025 at 2:37 PM
> We all agree that building technical expertise within the government to track the progress and diffusion of AI capabilities is helpful for understanding the technology and figuring out its potential societal implications. ....
so the first round is about which flavor of the right will face off against the communist candidate
and yes her win in the primaries was kind of unexpected, and happened in a low-turnout context
and yes her win in the primaries was kind of unexpected, and happened in a low-turnout context
November 15, 2025 at 11:53 PM
so the first round is about which flavor of the right will face off against the communist candidate
and yes her win in the primaries was kind of unexpected, and happened in a low-turnout context
and yes her win in the primaries was kind of unexpected, and happened in a low-turnout context
lmao yes would be a long image otherwise
November 15, 2025 at 11:25 PM
lmao yes would be a long image otherwise
we have 8 first round candidates right now, but only the first 4 have *any* chance of getting into the second round
notice how the first is left, and 2nd to 4th are right?
it's because a very broad left coalition held primaries, while the right did not
notice how the first is left, and 2nd to 4th are right?
it's because a very broad left coalition held primaries, while the right did not
candidates for next chilean presidential election sorted by rough polling average (polls noisy):
- tankie aunt who denies that cuba and venezuela are dictatorships but is otherwise mostly chill
- chilean bolsonaro
- chilean margaret thatcher
- sexist milei cosplayer
- extremely divorced grifter
...
- tankie aunt who denies that cuba and venezuela are dictatorships but is otherwise mostly chill
- chilean bolsonaro
- chilean margaret thatcher
- sexist milei cosplayer
- extremely divorced grifter
...
November 15, 2025 at 11:21 PM
we have 8 first round candidates right now, but only the first 4 have *any* chance of getting into the second round
notice how the first is left, and 2nd to 4th are right?
it's because a very broad left coalition held primaries, while the right did not
notice how the first is left, and 2nd to 4th are right?
it's because a very broad left coalition held primaries, while the right did not
so the first round really is about who gets to the second round, and the relative odds of each prospective match-up
November 15, 2025 at 11:13 PM
so the first round really is about who gets to the second round, and the relative odds of each prospective match-up
if one candidate manages to get over half of votes in the first round (lol, lmao even) then they are elected president
if there's no instant president then the top two by vote count face off in a second round
if there's no instant president then the top two by vote count face off in a second round
November 15, 2025 at 11:11 PM
if one candidate manages to get over half of votes in the first round (lol, lmao even) then they are elected president
if there's no instant president then the top two by vote count face off in a second round
if there's no instant president then the top two by vote count face off in a second round
then those who compete in the first round are all candidates elected in a primary and all those nominated directly by a coalition or party and all those independent candidates who manage to collect enough signatures
November 15, 2025 at 11:08 PM
then those who compete in the first round are all candidates elected in a primary and all those nominated directly by a coalition or party and all those independent candidates who manage to collect enough signatures
there are also optional but binding multiparty presidential primaries: a coalition can make the electoral service hold an election so the general public can select which candidate among a shortlist the coalition will run with
November 15, 2025 at 11:03 PM
there are also optional but binding multiparty presidential primaries: a coalition can make the electoral service hold an election so the general public can select which candidate among a shortlist the coalition will run with