Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
Weather and climate scientist focused on extreme events like floods, droughts, & wildfires on a warming planet. www.weatherwest.com
As someone who pays a lot of attention to geographic, ecological, and meteorological details...this is a common pet peeve of mine. But I also notice when a production team gets it right...it's something few will notice but it's a good sign as to overall quality. (I give the X-Files a pass, though!)
November 18, 2025 at 5:12 AM
As someone who pays a lot of attention to geographic, ecological, and meteorological details...this is a common pet peeve of mine. But I also notice when a production team gets it right...it's something few will notice but it's a good sign as to overall quality. (I give the X-Files a pass, though!)
Even when they went as far as filming in the (much drier!) BC interior valleys, the mountainous backdrop is a pretty dead giveaway that they aren't really in Kansas (literally, in at least one episode I can recall!). But I will say something was lost "atmospherically" when they moved filming to LA.
November 18, 2025 at 5:12 AM
Even when they went as far as filming in the (much drier!) BC interior valleys, the mountainous backdrop is a pretty dead giveaway that they aren't really in Kansas (literally, in at least one episode I can recall!). But I will say something was lost "atmospherically" when they moved filming to LA.
Yeah. Anything that takes us off the Dec 2021-like path is a good thing at this point... 😬
November 18, 2025 at 4:58 AM
Yeah. Anything that takes us off the Dec 2021-like path is a good thing at this point... 😬
With likely occurrence of "double dip" sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event and probable subsequent polar vortex disruption, though, this will be a volatile/high-amplitude flow pattern, characterized by blocking and wavy jet, so sudden changes in forecast possible into Dec.
November 17, 2025 at 4:53 PM
With likely occurrence of "double dip" sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event and probable subsequent polar vortex disruption, though, this will be a volatile/high-amplitude flow pattern, characterized by blocking and wavy jet, so sudden changes in forecast possible into Dec.
Looking ahead toward late Nov/early Dec, a drier pattern (though not completely so) is likely as northeastern Pacific ridging shifts eastward to just west of CA, allowing cold low to drop southward east of CA. Some uncertainty, but generally looks drier/cooler/breezy. #CAwx
November 17, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Looking ahead toward late Nov/early Dec, a drier pattern (though not completely so) is likely as northeastern Pacific ridging shifts eastward to just west of CA, allowing cold low to drop southward east of CA. Some uncertainty, but generally looks drier/cooler/breezy. #CAwx
Rain will continue in steady form for at least several more hours, possibly intensifying toward the end. After, there might be partial clearing mid-PM but then the atmosphere will further destabilize, with some strong t-storms possible by late PM/early evening. [2/2] #CAwx
November 15, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Rain will continue in steady form for at least several more hours, possibly intensifying toward the end. After, there might be partial clearing mid-PM but then the atmosphere will further destabilize, with some strong t-storms possible by late PM/early evening. [2/2] #CAwx
Climate Change through the Lens of Increasing Hydroclimate Whiplash
YouTube video by Distinctive Voices
youtu.be
November 15, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Reposted by Daniel Swain
This video arose from a very brief written op-ed piece that was published today, in even more succinct edited form, in Semafor (link below). But I'm including the full, unedited version of my original thoughts here in the attached image. www.semafor.com/arti...
November 14, 2025 at 4:56 PM
This video arose from a very brief written op-ed piece that was published today, in even more succinct edited form, in Semafor (link below). But I'm including the full, unedited version of my original thoughts here in the attached image. www.semafor.com/arti...
Same! Alas, I don't also have the bandwidth to generate real-time plots myself so I've got to make the most of what's available! :)
In this case, though, there are quite a few members clustered near mean so it might not be that different in this specific instance...
In this case, though, there are quite a few members clustered near mean so it might not be that different in this specific instance...
November 14, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Same! Alas, I don't also have the bandwidth to generate real-time plots myself so I've got to make the most of what's available! :)
In this case, though, there are quite a few members clustered near mean so it might not be that different in this specific instance...
In this case, though, there are quite a few members clustered near mean so it might not be that different in this specific instance...
Individual weather models, like recent ECMWF "operational" runs that indicate >10 inches of rainfall across SoCal over next 7 days (!), are still large outliers in their broader ensembles. But even the ensemble average would result in the wettest Nov in LA since the 1960s! #CAwx
November 14, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Individual weather models, like recent ECMWF "operational" runs that indicate >10 inches of rainfall across SoCal over next 7 days (!), are still large outliers in their broader ensembles. But even the ensemble average would result in the wettest Nov in LA since the 1960s! #CAwx