I've finalized my first (unofficial) forecast for the upcoming 2025 #Atlantic #hurricane season, expecting a near to above average season.

Video -> youtu.be/8pe62_6K9NA?...

This potential also exists further west, near Eastern #Australia as seen by the Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) outlook giving a moderate chance of development next week.

You can find outlooks from agencies below:
FMS: adila.met.gov.fj/fiji-weather...
BOM: bom.gov.au/cyclone/7day...
(6/6)

While exact track is highly uncertain, the potential for TC development is not as uncertain, and whatever forms may impact islands such as #Fiji, #Samoa, or #Tonga.
The Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) has already outlined areas this weekend where development may occur. (5/?)

And this leads to lower-than-normal forecast confidence.
With such expansive convection, it's easy for low pressure areas to spin up that may be missed by models and can result in the eventual dominant low out of this breakdown being much different than model outputs. (4/?)

Taking a look at the past 5 model runs from the GFS, we see that there is a lot of variability between each model run.
This is common with trough breakdowns like this thanks to the amount of convection and vorticity (spin) often seen with troughs this expansive. (3/?)

This potential has been well-advertised on model guidance, such as the latest GFS, showing the general idea, the SPCZ breaking down, and several lows developing after.
While the general idea is there, trough breakdowns are notoriously tricky for models to handle. (2/?)

Watching the Southwest #Pacific this week for potential TC development.

Looking large-scale, increased ascent is noted from a weak MJO pulse moving into the Western Hemisphere this week.
This combined with a monsoon trough breakdown in the Pacific may lead to TC formation. (1/?)

Invest #95L (Soon-to-be #15L) has developed well North of #Honduras today, satellite imagery shows a broad area of low pressure with disorganized convection around it.
If more organized convection develops, a quick TC could form before it comes into #Belize/#Mexico tomorrow

I've released my April 2024 Atlantic #hurricane season outlook, including my personal forecast for the upcoming season. The full presentation can be found here: youtu.be/-_RcUNIgL-A?...

Lots of these questions will be answered with time, the first big step will be getting a tropical cyclone to develop. Once 92P is developed, guidance should get a better hand on 92Ps intensity + track. (5/6)

Aloft, an upper ridge is depicted over the equator. In a scenario where 92P is stronger, this would result in competing flows, which in the current modeled cases nets a southerly track.

The good news here is these competing highs do result in some shear..weakening 92P. (4/6)

Intensity is important here..not just for potential impacts as there are some competing flows at play.

Over #Australia, a large ridge of high pressure is modeled, resulting in easterly low-level flow. If 92P is weaker, it would feel this flow more, and track west. (3/6)

Guidance right now appears very confident..with a low-shear and divergent environment shown in modeled solutions.

One potential issue 92P could face is some increased easterly winds closer to the surface, which could cause some tilt in structure. (2/6)

Tropical development is increasingly likely over the next week in the South Pacific as anomalous westerly winds develop along the equator.

Aided by easterly trade winds, this pattern results in cyclonic vorticity (spin) developing, which can lead to tropical development. (1/6)

Tropical development appears likely in the South Pacific over the coming days as disturbance 02F (invest 91P) develops near Papua New Guinea.

The system will track towards Fiji this week, where cyclone impacts may be felt.
Stay tuned to the Fiji Met Service for more on 02F.