Wealth Tax Now!
@wealthtaxnow.bsky.social
Wealth Tax Now; Euthanize the Gerontocracy;
I could be wrong but I still think Trump is more talk than action.
Like in 2018-19, he'll back off, once there is enough pain/blowback. Yes that threshold is higher now, and he has more hubris/confidence.
But, he's also doing it, later in the economic cycle with much higher interest rates.
Like in 2018-19, he'll back off, once there is enough pain/blowback. Yes that threshold is higher now, and he has more hubris/confidence.
But, he's also doing it, later in the economic cycle with much higher interest rates.
March 15, 2025 at 8:25 PM
I could be wrong but I still think Trump is more talk than action.
Like in 2018-19, he'll back off, once there is enough pain/blowback. Yes that threshold is higher now, and he has more hubris/confidence.
But, he's also doing it, later in the economic cycle with much higher interest rates.
Like in 2018-19, he'll back off, once there is enough pain/blowback. Yes that threshold is higher now, and he has more hubris/confidence.
But, he's also doing it, later in the economic cycle with much higher interest rates.
I think crypto could go to zero, and it would have minimal impact on the economy. Maybe in the stock market, there would be a brief V-shaped dip. And some stocks would def be impacted/ wiped out.
It could change if it keeps growing, more people are invested, leverage, and institutions get involved
It could change if it keeps growing, more people are invested, leverage, and institutions get involved
March 15, 2025 at 7:00 PM
I think crypto could go to zero, and it would have minimal impact on the economy. Maybe in the stock market, there would be a brief V-shaped dip. And some stocks would def be impacted/ wiped out.
It could change if it keeps growing, more people are invested, leverage, and institutions get involved
It could change if it keeps growing, more people are invested, leverage, and institutions get involved
Bc of social media making everyone miserable, I predict that every President will become unpopular at the end of their term. And the "vibes" will always be negative beyond brief surges of optimism
March 15, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Bc of social media making everyone miserable, I predict that every President will become unpopular at the end of their term. And the "vibes" will always be negative beyond brief surges of optimism
My prediction for how this plays out: on the other side of the uncertainty -> Goldilocks for the stock market.
Economy is weak enough to justify Fed easing. Not so weak that companies can't grow earnings.
Best trade/investment is to figure out companies that benefit from plunge in rates
Economy is weak enough to justify Fed easing. Not so weak that companies can't grow earnings.
Best trade/investment is to figure out companies that benefit from plunge in rates
March 15, 2025 at 6:54 PM
My prediction for how this plays out: on the other side of the uncertainty -> Goldilocks for the stock market.
Economy is weak enough to justify Fed easing. Not so weak that companies can't grow earnings.
Best trade/investment is to figure out companies that benefit from plunge in rates
Economy is weak enough to justify Fed easing. Not so weak that companies can't grow earnings.
Best trade/investment is to figure out companies that benefit from plunge in rates
I agree. I think we are in a period of uncertainty with Fed too hawkish and tariff uncertainty. But, these problems can both be solved by a tweet or a couple of sentences or a leak to a journalist.
March 15, 2025 at 6:52 PM
I agree. I think we are in a period of uncertainty with Fed too hawkish and tariff uncertainty. But, these problems can both be solved by a tweet or a couple of sentences or a leak to a journalist.
could consumer spending decline if stocks weaken further via the wealth effect? Or do you think not possible, if unemployment at these levels?
I think decline in consumer spending would trigger a recession coupled with weak cyclical, slowing govt.
I think decline in consumer spending would trigger a recession coupled with weak cyclical, slowing govt.
March 15, 2025 at 6:47 PM
could consumer spending decline if stocks weaken further via the wealth effect? Or do you think not possible, if unemployment at these levels?
I think decline in consumer spending would trigger a recession coupled with weak cyclical, slowing govt.
I think decline in consumer spending would trigger a recession coupled with weak cyclical, slowing govt.
2010s economy @weisenthal.bsky.social
March 15, 2025 at 3:48 PM
2010s economy @weisenthal.bsky.social
Once we get past this 1-3 month period of rate/tariff uncertainty, isn't this setting up to be GOLDILOCKS for the stock market?
Economy weak enough to justify continued Fed accommodation, not so weak that earnings meaningfully fall?
Feels a lot like 2010s
@weisenthal.bsky.social
Economy weak enough to justify continued Fed accommodation, not so weak that earnings meaningfully fall?
Feels a lot like 2010s
@weisenthal.bsky.social
March 15, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Once we get past this 1-3 month period of rate/tariff uncertainty, isn't this setting up to be GOLDILOCKS for the stock market?
Economy weak enough to justify continued Fed accommodation, not so weak that earnings meaningfully fall?
Feels a lot like 2010s
@weisenthal.bsky.social
Economy weak enough to justify continued Fed accommodation, not so weak that earnings meaningfully fall?
Feels a lot like 2010s
@weisenthal.bsky.social
Another point to support your argument: Wealth effect and consumer spending impacted if stocks do tank.
March 14, 2025 at 10:31 PM
Another point to support your argument: Wealth effect and consumer spending impacted if stocks do tank.
Agree with this. But, I think we need something constructive from the Fed or White House to really bottom. I think need lower prices/more fear
The market is quite oversold but still couldn't catch a bid even with 2 positive catalysts Wed + Thursday.
I am going to buy some puts at the open.
The market is quite oversold but still couldn't catch a bid even with 2 positive catalysts Wed + Thursday.
I am going to buy some puts at the open.
March 14, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Agree with this. But, I think we need something constructive from the Fed or White House to really bottom. I think need lower prices/more fear
The market is quite oversold but still couldn't catch a bid even with 2 positive catalysts Wed + Thursday.
I am going to buy some puts at the open.
The market is quite oversold but still couldn't catch a bid even with 2 positive catalysts Wed + Thursday.
I am going to buy some puts at the open.
Interesting that despite tariffs in the headlines and the catalyst. Momentum/AI/Mag7 was the clear leader on downside. Now, momentum sideways but econ-sensitive stuff leading downwards. Interestingly, I feel like there's a persistent bid in the tariff-sensitive stuff
March 13, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Interesting that despite tariffs in the headlines and the catalyst. Momentum/AI/Mag7 was the clear leader on downside. Now, momentum sideways but econ-sensitive stuff leading downwards. Interestingly, I feel like there's a persistent bid in the tariff-sensitive stuff
We need a wealth tax. Use them like Trump uses tariffs. Extract concessions from billionaires/corporations. Keep them in line.
Instead, Blue States continue to shovel money at Elon.
Dems need to start dog-walking any CEO or company who they give $ to.
Instead, Blue States continue to shovel money at Elon.
Dems need to start dog-walking any CEO or company who they give $ to.
March 13, 2025 at 4:37 AM
We need a wealth tax. Use them like Trump uses tariffs. Extract concessions from billionaires/corporations. Keep them in line.
Instead, Blue States continue to shovel money at Elon.
Dems need to start dog-walking any CEO or company who they give $ to.
Instead, Blue States continue to shovel money at Elon.
Dems need to start dog-walking any CEO or company who they give $ to.
still not elevated historically tho. I actually think more of the market weakness is due to an unwind in momentum stocks rather than tariffs.
Look at F GM STLA vs any momentum/tech/AI.
We could have another leg lower if 'real economy' stocks start breaking down.
Look at F GM STLA vs any momentum/tech/AI.
We could have another leg lower if 'real economy' stocks start breaking down.
March 12, 2025 at 3:44 AM
still not elevated historically tho. I actually think more of the market weakness is due to an unwind in momentum stocks rather than tariffs.
Look at F GM STLA vs any momentum/tech/AI.
We could have another leg lower if 'real economy' stocks start breaking down.
Look at F GM STLA vs any momentum/tech/AI.
We could have another leg lower if 'real economy' stocks start breaking down.
I think 2018-2019 is helpful.
I think 2011-2013 is also similar. Growing earnings, falling rates. Except US and EU are flipped.
I think 2011-2013 is also similar. Growing earnings, falling rates. Except US and EU are flipped.
March 11, 2025 at 2:13 PM
I think 2018-2019 is helpful.
I think 2011-2013 is also similar. Growing earnings, falling rates. Except US and EU are flipped.
I think 2011-2013 is also similar. Growing earnings, falling rates. Except US and EU are flipped.
A lot of momentum stocks have likely peaked. I think Bitcoin goes on to make higher highs.
Last cycle, Bitcoin topped late in 2021. Most memecoins peaked late in 2020/early in 2021. Think we see something similar.
BTW - my roadmap thedailyinsightt.substack.com/p/a-recessio...
Last cycle, Bitcoin topped late in 2021. Most memecoins peaked late in 2020/early in 2021. Think we see something similar.
BTW - my roadmap thedailyinsightt.substack.com/p/a-recessio...
A Recession + Stock Market Boom: (Possible) 2025 Roadmap
If we zoom out and step back from the day-to-day newsflow, I think it’s increasingly clear that…
thedailyinsightt.substack.com
March 10, 2025 at 4:26 PM
A lot of momentum stocks have likely peaked. I think Bitcoin goes on to make higher highs.
Last cycle, Bitcoin topped late in 2021. Most memecoins peaked late in 2020/early in 2021. Think we see something similar.
BTW - my roadmap thedailyinsightt.substack.com/p/a-recessio...
Last cycle, Bitcoin topped late in 2021. Most memecoins peaked late in 2020/early in 2021. Think we see something similar.
BTW - my roadmap thedailyinsightt.substack.com/p/a-recessio...
ICLN also been Outperforming.
March 10, 2025 at 3:31 PM
ICLN also been Outperforming.
Meanwhile ICLN is flat YTD and slightly up since the Inauguration.
Way to Bet against Trump + low interest rate beneficiary
Reminds me of private prison stocks from 2021-2025
@conorsen.bsky.social
Way to Bet against Trump + low interest rate beneficiary
Reminds me of private prison stocks from 2021-2025
@conorsen.bsky.social
March 10, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Meanwhile ICLN is flat YTD and slightly up since the Inauguration.
Way to Bet against Trump + low interest rate beneficiary
Reminds me of private prison stocks from 2021-2025
@conorsen.bsky.social
Way to Bet against Trump + low interest rate beneficiary
Reminds me of private prison stocks from 2021-2025
@conorsen.bsky.social
For a trade, yes. I like the relative strength
March 9, 2025 at 12:23 PM
For a trade, yes. I like the relative strength
open.substack.com/pub/thedaily...
I think that we get a slow/languishing economy and a booming stock market (once the Fed cuts/pivots and/or tariff drama passes)
A weird dynamic in the labor market (@conorsen noted this) is that we have ~3M people retiring every year.
I think that we get a slow/languishing economy and a booming stock market (once the Fed cuts/pivots and/or tariff drama passes)
A weird dynamic in the labor market (@conorsen noted this) is that we have ~3M people retiring every year.
A Recession + Stock Market Boom: (Possible) 2025 Roadmap
If we zoom out and step back from the day-to-day newsflow, I think it’s increasingly clear that…
open.substack.com
March 7, 2025 at 4:13 PM
open.substack.com/pub/thedaily...
I think that we get a slow/languishing economy and a booming stock market (once the Fed cuts/pivots and/or tariff drama passes)
A weird dynamic in the labor market (@conorsen noted this) is that we have ~3M people retiring every year.
I think that we get a slow/languishing economy and a booming stock market (once the Fed cuts/pivots and/or tariff drama passes)
A weird dynamic in the labor market (@conorsen noted this) is that we have ~3M people retiring every year.
After that, don't we have a GOLDILOCKS situation for the stock market?
Economy that is weak enough to justify continued Fed accomodation but not weak enough to threaten earnings.
Lower rates offset headwind from slowing economy
Great for asset prices, bad for workers/econ
Mid-2010sish
Economy that is weak enough to justify continued Fed accomodation but not weak enough to threaten earnings.
Lower rates offset headwind from slowing economy
Great for asset prices, bad for workers/econ
Mid-2010sish
March 7, 2025 at 3:58 PM
After that, don't we have a GOLDILOCKS situation for the stock market?
Economy that is weak enough to justify continued Fed accomodation but not weak enough to threaten earnings.
Lower rates offset headwind from slowing economy
Great for asset prices, bad for workers/econ
Mid-2010sish
Economy that is weak enough to justify continued Fed accomodation but not weak enough to threaten earnings.
Lower rates offset headwind from slowing economy
Great for asset prices, bad for workers/econ
Mid-2010sish
Near-term, market outlook is messy: Slowing economy, tariff uncertainty, and hawkish Fed (relative to econ)
But 2 of these 3 problems can be solved with a tweet or 1 leak to @nicktimiraos.bsky.social
But 2 of these 3 problems can be solved with a tweet or 1 leak to @nicktimiraos.bsky.social
March 7, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Near-term, market outlook is messy: Slowing economy, tariff uncertainty, and hawkish Fed (relative to econ)
But 2 of these 3 problems can be solved with a tweet or 1 leak to @nicktimiraos.bsky.social
But 2 of these 3 problems can be solved with a tweet or 1 leak to @nicktimiraos.bsky.social
I think another headwind is selling for tax reasons.
That being said, I would love to buy (for a trade) a gap down under the 200 day MA
That being said, I would love to buy (for a trade) a gap down under the 200 day MA
March 6, 2025 at 4:39 PM
I think another headwind is selling for tax reasons.
That being said, I would love to buy (for a trade) a gap down under the 200 day MA
That being said, I would love to buy (for a trade) a gap down under the 200 day MA
This feels like 2012-2013 to me. Lots of fear, lots of sharp selloffs. But big picture, market didn't do anything. Hard for stocks to meaningfully decline if rates are falling + earnings are up/flat
March 5, 2025 at 12:40 AM
This feels like 2012-2013 to me. Lots of fear, lots of sharp selloffs. But big picture, market didn't do anything. Hard for stocks to meaningfully decline if rates are falling + earnings are up/flat
How many billions have Blue States transferred to TSLA via EV subsidies.
Why haven't these programs immediately ended/amended to exclude Tesla vehicles.
Surprised, there is no discussion of this.
Why haven't these programs immediately ended/amended to exclude Tesla vehicles.
Surprised, there is no discussion of this.
February 19, 2025 at 5:10 PM
How many billions have Blue States transferred to TSLA via EV subsidies.
Why haven't these programs immediately ended/amended to exclude Tesla vehicles.
Surprised, there is no discussion of this.
Why haven't these programs immediately ended/amended to exclude Tesla vehicles.
Surprised, there is no discussion of this.