@warrens-complex.bsky.social
Software Developer in Commodity Futures — Interests: machine learning, complex systems. Career: Neural networks in commodity futures (100% proprietary code, 0% public libraries). Political: "Extreme" Moderate 🙃
AI just crossed the ‘3-data-points make a trend’ narrative — (1) the OpenAI release disappointed, (2) Meta restructuring its AI approach, and (3) Grok’s best use is making juvenile fake videos.
So now articles will get written about AI failing — especially if there is a noticeable stock correction.
So now articles will get written about AI failing — especially if there is a noticeable stock correction.
August 20, 2025 at 3:18 PM
AI just crossed the ‘3-data-points make a trend’ narrative — (1) the OpenAI release disappointed, (2) Meta restructuring its AI approach, and (3) Grok’s best use is making juvenile fake videos.
So now articles will get written about AI failing — especially if there is a noticeable stock correction.
So now articles will get written about AI failing — especially if there is a noticeable stock correction.
Tried to deemphasize consumption with my boys. School robotics club and Model UN were both good. For sports, tennis is more polite (no refs, make your own calls, and be honest, parents are watching). Also in cross country running observers typically applaud *all* finishers, even the visiting team.
August 17, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Tried to deemphasize consumption with my boys. School robotics club and Model UN were both good. For sports, tennis is more polite (no refs, make your own calls, and be honest, parents are watching). Also in cross country running observers typically applaud *all* finishers, even the visiting team.
“wrote it in 2007”
Art Berman writes that “World crude + condensate production peak was 84.6 mmb/d in November 2018.”
Art Berman writes that “World crude + condensate production peak was 84.6 mmb/d in November 2018.”
August 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
“wrote it in 2007”
Art Berman writes that “World crude + condensate production peak was 84.6 mmb/d in November 2018.”
Art Berman writes that “World crude + condensate production peak was 84.6 mmb/d in November 2018.”
This:
“Around 74% of the global population lives in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels. Dependence on fossil fuel imports exposes countries to volatile prices…”
“Around 74% of the global population lives in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels. Dependence on fossil fuel imports exposes countries to volatile prices…”
August 12, 2025 at 11:29 AM
This:
“Around 74% of the global population lives in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels. Dependence on fossil fuel imports exposes countries to volatile prices…”
“Around 74% of the global population lives in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels. Dependence on fossil fuel imports exposes countries to volatile prices…”
“Wind cuts… gas burning”
And yet economists like Robin Brooks on X today go on about how the fix to the German chemical industry is a weaker Euro — an economic “epi-phenomenon” fix, rather than a fix of the energy input itself.
Weaker Euro would make energy even more expensive!
And yet economists like Robin Brooks on X today go on about how the fix to the German chemical industry is a weaker Euro — an economic “epi-phenomenon” fix, rather than a fix of the energy input itself.
Weaker Euro would make energy even more expensive!
August 10, 2025 at 1:33 PM
“Wind cuts… gas burning”
And yet economists like Robin Brooks on X today go on about how the fix to the German chemical industry is a weaker Euro — an economic “epi-phenomenon” fix, rather than a fix of the energy input itself.
Weaker Euro would make energy even more expensive!
And yet economists like Robin Brooks on X today go on about how the fix to the German chemical industry is a weaker Euro — an economic “epi-phenomenon” fix, rather than a fix of the energy input itself.
Weaker Euro would make energy even more expensive!
But AI *is* slowly getting better at writing code that everyone already has! 🤣
August 9, 2025 at 6:43 PM
But AI *is* slowly getting better at writing code that everyone already has! 🤣
Could be significant (and permanent) if it is a result of alternative energy “defanging” the global oil, coal, and LNG markets
August 8, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Could be significant (and permanent) if it is a result of alternative energy “defanging” the global oil, coal, and LNG markets
Similar to debates elsewhere which seem to boil down to the fact that renewable energy is cheap but expanding the grid is expensive — a one-time cost, but which is “socialized” by the rules of grid operators.
August 8, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Similar to debates elsewhere which seem to boil down to the fact that renewable energy is cheap but expanding the grid is expensive — a one-time cost, but which is “socialized” by the rules of grid operators.
Also search for the term “lender on lender violence”. Such fun.
August 4, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Also search for the term “lender on lender violence”. Such fun.
All depends on the language of each specific covenant. I only use well known expert managers, like Oaktree or PIMCO, with experience reading covenants before acquiring loans. Not an expert myself.
Read “The Caesar’s Palace Coup” for a great story of a debt deal gone really bad.
Read “The Caesar’s Palace Coup” for a great story of a debt deal gone really bad.
August 4, 2025 at 7:36 PM
All depends on the language of each specific covenant. I only use well known expert managers, like Oaktree or PIMCO, with experience reading covenants before acquiring loans. Not an expert myself.
Read “The Caesar’s Palace Coup” for a great story of a debt deal gone really bad.
Read “The Caesar’s Palace Coup” for a great story of a debt deal gone really bad.
I wonder if some companies are claiming that unexpectedly high tariffs, while the legality of those tariffs are TBD by the courts, allows modification to their payments schedule — becoming a party to those court cases could help that claim.
August 4, 2025 at 7:12 PM
I wonder if some companies are claiming that unexpectedly high tariffs, while the legality of those tariffs are TBD by the courts, allows modification to their payments schedule — becoming a party to those court cases could help that claim.
Debtors doing something (allowed by the language of the loan documents — i.e. the “covenants”) other than making cash payments.
For instance, “payments in kind” which is paying debt with more debt.
For instance, “payments in kind” which is paying debt with more debt.
August 4, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Debtors doing something (allowed by the language of the loan documents — i.e. the “covenants”) other than making cash payments.
For instance, “payments in kind” which is paying debt with more debt.
For instance, “payments in kind” which is paying debt with more debt.
Excellent piece. Ultimately the big tech companies *would* have to sell stock to pay the debt because loans that are investment grade (required rating for insurance companies to buy it) have those covenants, but after the first loss tranche (private creditors) take their hit.
August 3, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Excellent piece. Ultimately the big tech companies *would* have to sell stock to pay the debt because loans that are investment grade (required rating for insurance companies to buy it) have those covenants, but after the first loss tranche (private creditors) take their hit.
Second “Flesh Eating Bacteria in Coastal Florida” story I’ve read just today.
Not even going to visit now.
Not even going to visit now.
August 2, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Second “Flesh Eating Bacteria in Coastal Florida” story I’ve read just today.
Not even going to visit now.
Not even going to visit now.
What do you think happens to cloud spending over the next couple of quarters?
August 1, 2025 at 2:48 PM
What do you think happens to cloud spending over the next couple of quarters?
AQR Long / short and market neutral have been great places to be.
August 1, 2025 at 2:30 PM
AQR Long / short and market neutral have been great places to be.
Anecdotally have seen 2 older workers dismissed and 2 younger workers hired — one is a direct replacement for the older worker.
Net effect on unemployment rate is zero!
Of course, effect on spending is negative.
And both hires are in negative growth industries.
Net effect on unemployment rate is zero!
Of course, effect on spending is negative.
And both hires are in negative growth industries.
August 1, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Anecdotally have seen 2 older workers dismissed and 2 younger workers hired — one is a direct replacement for the older worker.
Net effect on unemployment rate is zero!
Of course, effect on spending is negative.
And both hires are in negative growth industries.
Net effect on unemployment rate is zero!
Of course, effect on spending is negative.
And both hires are in negative growth industries.
Some article I found said 5 current projects are unaffected — that may be one of them.
August 1, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Some article I found said 5 current projects are unaffected — that may be one of them.
8 GW in NY got nixed. What else?
August 1, 2025 at 12:32 PM
8 GW in NY got nixed. What else?
Previous administration goal was “30 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030” — but how much was actually under development?
August 1, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Previous administration goal was “30 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030” — but how much was actually under development?
“…enhanced geothermal will be cost competitive with baseload gas before 2030.” — Fervo Energy white paper just released
Also, (current project) 500 MW operational in 2029, and (just released) 2 GW in 2030!
Also, (current project) 500 MW operational in 2029, and (just released) 2 GW in 2030!
July 31, 2025 at 4:50 PM
“…enhanced geothermal will be cost competitive with baseload gas before 2030.” — Fervo Energy white paper just released
Also, (current project) 500 MW operational in 2029, and (just released) 2 GW in 2030!
Also, (current project) 500 MW operational in 2029, and (just released) 2 GW in 2030!
Latest Fervo Energy white paper shows 500 MW (current project) operational in 2029, and 2 GW (next project) operational in 2030 — so, scaling up rather soon.
July 31, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Latest Fervo Energy white paper shows 500 MW (current project) operational in 2029, and 2 GW (next project) operational in 2030 — so, scaling up rather soon.
“easy to replicate”
Jealous. Algorithms are so easy to replicate. In finance folks hide techniques.
Jealous. Algorithms are so easy to replicate. In finance folks hide techniques.
July 30, 2025 at 5:36 PM
“easy to replicate”
Jealous. Algorithms are so easy to replicate. In finance folks hide techniques.
Jealous. Algorithms are so easy to replicate. In finance folks hide techniques.
Article seems terribly out of date. Actual head of Fervo Energy says they are soon going to accelerate development.
July 30, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Article seems terribly out of date. Actual head of Fervo Energy says they are soon going to accelerate development.
VAT can be applied at every intermediate transaction — most goods sold are intermediate goods. Taxes are least cheated if they are small and widely distributed.
High tariffs are more likely to create a “black market” or other type of cheating or smuggling.
High tariffs are more likely to create a “black market” or other type of cheating or smuggling.
July 29, 2025 at 5:01 PM
VAT can be applied at every intermediate transaction — most goods sold are intermediate goods. Taxes are least cheated if they are small and widely distributed.
High tariffs are more likely to create a “black market” or other type of cheating or smuggling.
High tariffs are more likely to create a “black market” or other type of cheating or smuggling.