@vojtechpavlik.bsky.social
This guy A.B. will say something entirely different tomorrow. He doesn't care about truth or consistency.
October 8, 2025 at 7:29 PM
This guy A.B. will say something entirely different tomorrow. He doesn't care about truth or consistency.
That may still happen. The president is very clear on the foreign policy direction and the winning party will not have an easy time putting together a majority coalition. The election result is not the conclusion, it's the beginning of the process.
October 8, 2025 at 6:31 PM
That may still happen. The president is very clear on the foreign policy direction and the winning party will not have an easy time putting together a majority coalition. The election result is not the conclusion, it's the beginning of the process.
Reason: Andrej Babiš has made so many promises of spending money to get elected that he now realizes he'd need twice the government budget to do it. He's raising a major ruckus that he will have to go into an unprecedented deficit "because of the previous government".
October 8, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Reason: Andrej Babiš has made so many promises of spending money to get elected that he now realizes he'd need twice the government budget to do it. He's raising a major ruckus that he will have to go into an unprecedented deficit "because of the previous government".
But then, Russian gas and oil are cheap, and energy prices spiked after Russia attacked Ukraine and remained very high in Czechia. So that's where this may be heading.
October 4, 2025 at 7:46 PM
But then, Russian gas and oil are cheap, and energy prices spiked after Russia attacked Ukraine and remained very high in Czechia. So that's where this may be heading.
Yes. And while there is a connection to Russia, only future will show how strong it is. They don't have anything pro-Russia in their manifesto. They're all about making energy and fuels cheaper, the government and administrative processes leaner, and say that they're speaking for the middle class.
October 4, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Yes. And while there is a connection to Russia, only future will show how strong it is. They don't have anything pro-Russia in their manifesto. They're all about making energy and fuels cheaper, the government and administrative processes leaner, and say that they're speaking for the middle class.
Plus he used to be making quite a lot of money as a major exporter of yoghurt to Russia. A business that sanctions have stopped. :)
October 4, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Plus he used to be making quite a lot of money as a major exporter of yoghurt to Russia. A business that sanctions have stopped. :)
That's the problem with oligarchs (and other rich individuals even if they don't get called that). Particularly those for whom power and wealth is everything. They're easy targets for Russian money. And so great seeds of discord in the EU.
October 4, 2025 at 7:25 PM
That's the problem with oligarchs (and other rich individuals even if they don't get called that). Particularly those for whom power and wealth is everything. They're easy targets for Russian money. And so great seeds of discord in the EU.
You know what? Czechia doesn't have a single-party system. Who wins doesn't matter. Who makes a majority coalition matters. In the 2021 elections, ANO+SPD was 92 seats. Today, 2025, ANO+SPD is 95 seats. Neither is a majority.
October 4, 2025 at 7:07 PM
You know what? Czechia doesn't have a single-party system. Who wins doesn't matter. Who makes a majority coalition matters. In the 2021 elections, ANO+SPD was 92 seats. Today, 2025, ANO+SPD is 95 seats. Neither is a majority.
That's the big question. ANO has so far carefully avoided directly associating themselves with radical parties, as a lot of their voters are moderate or even leftist. But now they have no choice if they would want to form a majority coalition.
October 4, 2025 at 6:52 PM
That's the big question. ANO has so far carefully avoided directly associating themselves with radical parties, as a lot of their voters are moderate or even leftist. But now they have no choice if they would want to form a majority coalition.
And indeed, large cities generally don't vote ANO. It's most successful in the poorest regions.
October 4, 2025 at 6:40 PM
And indeed, large cities generally don't vote ANO. It's most successful in the poorest regions.
In most developed countries the wealth distribution is getting more and more uneven. A large part of the population is struggling. And so people listen to promises of change and better life, and vote for populists. Even if those populists are the richest oligarchs who made the people poor.
October 4, 2025 at 6:39 PM
In most developed countries the wealth distribution is getting more and more uneven. A large part of the population is struggling. And so people listen to promises of change and better life, and vote for populists. Even if those populists are the richest oligarchs who made the people poor.
They're a new party and thus a big unknown. The newness is likely key to their success in the elections, as there are always voters which aren't happy with any of the current parties.
October 4, 2025 at 6:29 PM
They're a new party and thus a big unknown. The newness is likely key to their success in the elections, as there are always voters which aren't happy with any of the current parties.
The final numbers are 80 for ANO and 92 for the last coalition government. Neither has a majority, and ANO doesn't have a majority even with SPD (95 seats). So Motoriste (AUTO in the chart) will likely be required for forming a government. Unless there is a surprise, like a grand coalition ...
October 4, 2025 at 6:27 PM
The final numbers are 80 for ANO and 92 for the last coalition government. Neither has a majority, and ANO doesn't have a majority even with SPD (95 seats). So Motoriste (AUTO in the chart) will likely be required for forming a government. Unless there is a surprise, like a grand coalition ...
But the 80 seems to indeed be the consensus at the moment.
October 4, 2025 at 6:16 PM
But the 80 seems to indeed be the consensus at the moment.
It's complicated as it can't be calculated from the percentages directly and depends on what actual candidates will be picked by the D'Hondt method in each region. So until all votes are counted, there is still some volatility in the actual seat numbers.
October 4, 2025 at 6:11 PM
It's complicated as it can't be calculated from the percentages directly and depends on what actual candidates will be picked by the D'Hondt method in each region. So until all votes are counted, there is still some volatility in the actual seat numbers.
Note that the coalition that formed government in the last elections (Spolu + STAN + Piráti) is 87 seats. More than 84, but still not 101 needed for a majority.
October 4, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Note that the coalition that formed government in the last elections (Spolu + STAN + Piráti) is 87 seats. More than 84, but still not 101 needed for a majority.
Czech here. We already had our "Vrbětice" moment - when the russians blew up a large munition depot on Czech soil. So drones over airports or critical infrastructure wouldn't change the view much. And I suppose what Russia is getting is high resolution photographs.
October 4, 2025 at 5:57 PM
Czech here. We already had our "Vrbětice" moment - when the russians blew up a large munition depot on Czech soil. So drones over airports or critical infrastructure wouldn't change the view much. And I suppose what Russia is getting is high resolution photographs.
And in the end, we will still have a very pro-Ukraine president, who used to be an army general, worked as the chair of the NATO military committee and has no illusions about Russia. He won the presidency against Andrej Babiš in the last presidential elections. It'll be an interesting dynamic.
October 4, 2025 at 5:48 PM
And in the end, we will still have a very pro-Ukraine president, who used to be an army general, worked as the chair of the NATO military committee and has no illusions about Russia. He won the presidency against Andrej Babiš in the last presidential elections. It'll be an interesting dynamic.
So it's either a coalition with the radical parties or ANO as minority government with silent support from them. Or the parties that didn't win, if they form a coalition with enough support, could still pul off a government together. It'll be tough negotiations for weeks if not months now.
October 4, 2025 at 5:41 PM
So it's either a coalition with the radical parties or ANO as minority government with silent support from them. Or the parties that didn't win, if they form a coalition with enough support, could still pul off a government together. It'll be tough negotiations for weeks if not months now.
That's the problem. None of the moderate parties are willing to work with him. He's toxic. Every party that worked with him before got burned badly, including ČSSD, a party founded in 1878, which survived communism and then got basically killed by working together with ANO.
October 4, 2025 at 5:38 PM
That's the problem. None of the moderate parties are willing to work with him. He's toxic. Every party that worked with him before got burned badly, including ČSSD, a party founded in 1878, which survived communism and then got basically killed by working together with ANO.
The bigger problem would be if he forms a coalition with SPD, which is openly pro-Russian and with Motoriste, which is anti-green, anti-progressivist, anti-bicycle, anti-train, pro-internal-combustion-engine, pro-cheap-oil, and by extension could also turn out to be pro-Russia.
October 4, 2025 at 5:30 PM
The bigger problem would be if he forms a coalition with SPD, which is openly pro-Russian and with Motoriste, which is anti-green, anti-progressivist, anti-bicycle, anti-train, pro-internal-combustion-engine, pro-cheap-oil, and by extension could also turn out to be pro-Russia.
That is a much harder question. If I try to peer into my crystal ball, I'd say he himself will try to reduce spending of Czechia on Ukraine (because giving anything for free seems unthinkable for him and his voters), but wouldn't block EU in supporting Ukraine like Orbán or Fico.
October 4, 2025 at 5:28 PM
That is a much harder question. If I try to peer into my crystal ball, I'd say he himself will try to reduce spending of Czechia on Ukraine (because giving anything for free seems unthinkable for him and his voters), but wouldn't block EU in supporting Ukraine like Orbán or Fico.
That's well documented. Mainly by "creatively obtaining" various chemical and agricurtural enterprises during the nascent years of Czech democracy using his contacts and power from the communist era. And with help of russian capital routed through Switzerland. After that by monopolist practices.
October 4, 2025 at 5:21 PM
That's well documented. Mainly by "creatively obtaining" various chemical and agricurtural enterprises during the nascent years of Czech democracy using his contacts and power from the communist era. And with help of russian capital routed through Switzerland. After that by monopolist practices.
ANO is not right-wing in terms of government policy, certainly it's against small businesses and enterpreneurs, against reducing state spending, against pension reforms, etc. But it is promoting selfishness as its core value, similar to Orbán's and Fico's ideologies, which is considered right-wing.
October 4, 2025 at 5:18 PM
ANO is not right-wing in terms of government policy, certainly it's against small businesses and enterpreneurs, against reducing state spending, against pension reforms, etc. But it is promoting selfishness as its core value, similar to Orbán's and Fico's ideologies, which is considered right-wing.