This work was a collaboration led by Thalia Vrantsidis and Kimia Sabbagh to whom I'm super grateful :) Check it out!

Thanks for clarifying! I think this would actually be a cool follow-up :) At least I thought about probability correct here in a normative sense as something people try to approach when reporting confidence. I'm also curious about @kobedesender.bsky.social thoughts on this!

We assumed it based on Sanders, 2016 work on signatures for confidence and tried to see if affect works similarly. I understand that there is later work that challenges this assumption - do you have something specific in mind?

Yup - we didn't find the folded X and we also discuss Manuel's work to interpret this :)