Vnssa HC
@vnssahc.bsky.social
🧵 10/10
Distinction remains the soul of IHL (Additional Protocol I) Without it, drones don’t democratize security—they democratize atrocity
We either regulate lethal autonomy now, or the next decade of war will be fought by machines that cost less than your iPhone
Distinction remains the soul of IHL (Additional Protocol I) Without it, drones don’t democratize security—they democratize atrocity
We either regulate lethal autonomy now, or the next decade of war will be fought by machines that cost less than your iPhone
November 19, 2025 at 5:18 PM
🧵 10/10
Distinction remains the soul of IHL (Additional Protocol I) Without it, drones don’t democratize security—they democratize atrocity
We either regulate lethal autonomy now, or the next decade of war will be fought by machines that cost less than your iPhone
Distinction remains the soul of IHL (Additional Protocol I) Without it, drones don’t democratize security—they democratize atrocity
We either regulate lethal autonomy now, or the next decade of war will be fought by machines that cost less than your iPhone
🧵 9/10
Bigger picture: Cheap lethal tech erodes every arms-control regime we built in the 20th century. When anyone can field an air force for the price of a used car, deterrence collapses and endless war becomes the default setting
Bigger picture: Cheap lethal tech erodes every arms-control regime we built in the 20th century. When anyone can field an air force for the price of a used car, deterrence collapses and endless war becomes the default setting
November 19, 2025 at 5:18 PM
🧵 9/10
Bigger picture: Cheap lethal tech erodes every arms-control regime we built in the 20th century. When anyone can field an air force for the price of a used car, deterrence collapses and endless war becomes the default setting
Bigger picture: Cheap lethal tech erodes every arms-control regime we built in the 20th century. When anyone can field an air force for the price of a used car, deterrence collapses and endless war becomes the default setting
🧵 8/10
Future scenarios:
2026 CCW breakthrough → meaningful human control required
OR
Unregulated swarm race → first-strike incentives worse than nuclear MAD, because the barrier to use is near zero
Future scenarios:
2026 CCW breakthrough → meaningful human control required
OR
Unregulated swarm race → first-strike incentives worse than nuclear MAD, because the barrier to use is near zero
November 19, 2025 at 5:18 PM
🧵 8/10
Future scenarios:
2026 CCW breakthrough → meaningful human control required
OR
Unregulated swarm race → first-strike incentives worse than nuclear MAD, because the barrier to use is near zero
Future scenarios:
2026 CCW breakthrough → meaningful human control required
OR
Unregulated swarm race → first-strike incentives worse than nuclear MAD, because the barrier to use is near zero
🧵 7/10
Human cost: 943 civilian deaths directly attributed to drone strikes 2021-2024 (Death on Delivery report).
UN SecGen called for a global ban in May 2025. 161 states voted for negotiations; US, Russia, Israel and China still blocking consensus
Human cost: 943 civilian deaths directly attributed to drone strikes 2021-2024 (Death on Delivery report).
UN SecGen called for a global ban in May 2025. 161 states voted for negotiations; US, Russia, Israel and China still blocking consensus
November 19, 2025 at 5:18 PM
🧵 7/10
Human cost: 943 civilian deaths directly attributed to drone strikes 2021-2024 (Death on Delivery report).
UN SecGen called for a global ban in May 2025. 161 states voted for negotiations; US, Russia, Israel and China still blocking consensus
Human cost: 943 civilian deaths directly attributed to drone strikes 2021-2024 (Death on Delivery report).
UN SecGen called for a global ban in May 2025. 161 states voted for negotiations; US, Russia, Israel and China still blocking consensus
🧵 6/10
Legal minefield: Additional Protocol I (Art. 35 + 51) bans indiscriminate weapons and requires distinction & proportionality. Fully autonomous “slaughterbots” fail both tests. CCW talks on lethal AWS have dragged since 2014 with zero binding outcome
Legal minefield: Additional Protocol I (Art. 35 + 51) bans indiscriminate weapons and requires distinction & proportionality. Fully autonomous “slaughterbots” fail both tests. CCW talks on lethal AWS have dragged since 2014 with zero binding outcome
November 19, 2025 at 5:18 PM
🧵 6/10
Legal minefield: Additional Protocol I (Art. 35 + 51) bans indiscriminate weapons and requires distinction & proportionality. Fully autonomous “slaughterbots” fail both tests. CCW talks on lethal AWS have dragged since 2014 with zero binding outcome
Legal minefield: Additional Protocol I (Art. 35 + 51) bans indiscriminate weapons and requires distinction & proportionality. Fully autonomous “slaughterbots” fail both tests. CCW talks on lethal AWS have dragged since 2014 with zero binding outcome
🧵 5/10
Strategic revolution: Tanks are becoming metal coffins. The US military now treats drones as “consumables” like bullets. Lesson from Nagorno-Karabakh 2020 still ignored by many Western armies: if you can be seen, you die
Strategic revolution: Tanks are becoming metal coffins. The US military now treats drones as “consumables” like bullets. Lesson from Nagorno-Karabakh 2020 still ignored by many Western armies: if you can be seen, you die
November 19, 2025 at 5:18 PM
🧵 5/10
Strategic revolution: Tanks are becoming metal coffins. The US military now treats drones as “consumables” like bullets. Lesson from Nagorno-Karabakh 2020 still ignored by many Western armies: if you can be seen, you die
Strategic revolution: Tanks are becoming metal coffins. The US military now treats drones as “consumables” like bullets. Lesson from Nagorno-Karabakh 2020 still ignored by many Western armies: if you can be seen, you die
🧵 4/10
Real numbers:
• Gaza: Israeli drones linked to ~40% civilian deaths (Just Security 2025)
• Ukraine: drones cause 70% of Russian equipment losses
• Global market: $25B in 2025 and exploding (SIPRI)
Real numbers:
• Gaza: Israeli drones linked to ~40% civilian deaths (Just Security 2025)
• Ukraine: drones cause 70% of Russian equipment losses
• Global market: $25B in 2025 and exploding (SIPRI)
November 19, 2025 at 5:18 PM
🧵 4/10
Real numbers:
• Gaza: Israeli drones linked to ~40% civilian deaths (Just Security 2025)
• Ukraine: drones cause 70% of Russian equipment losses
• Global market: $25B in 2025 and exploding (SIPRI)
Real numbers:
• Gaza: Israeli drones linked to ~40% civilian deaths (Just Security 2025)
• Ukraine: drones cause 70% of Russian equipment losses
• Global market: $25B in 2025 and exploding (SIPRI)
🧵 3/10
Geopolitical shift: Non-state actors (Hamas, Houthis) can now deny sea lanes and bleed superpowers. Drones account for ~40% of all battlefield losses in Ukraine and Gaza. Traditional air superiority is evaporating overnight.
Geopolitical shift: Non-state actors (Hamas, Houthis) can now deny sea lanes and bleed superpowers. Drones account for ~40% of all battlefield losses in Ukraine and Gaza. Traditional air superiority is evaporating overnight.
November 19, 2025 at 5:18 PM
🧵 3/10
Geopolitical shift: Non-state actors (Hamas, Houthis) can now deny sea lanes and bleed superpowers. Drones account for ~40% of all battlefield losses in Ukraine and Gaza. Traditional air superiority is evaporating overnight.
Geopolitical shift: Non-state actors (Hamas, Houthis) can now deny sea lanes and bleed superpowers. Drones account for ~40% of all battlefield losses in Ukraine and Gaza. Traditional air superiority is evaporating overnight.
🧵 2/10
The tech: Bayraktar TB2, Shahed-136, DJI-based FPVs. 90% cheaper than manned aircraft, zero pilot risk.
In 2025 more than 30 countries operate armed drones, 90+ have surveillance fleets.
China and Turkey are the new arms bazaar (CNAS)
The tech: Bayraktar TB2, Shahed-136, DJI-based FPVs. 90% cheaper than manned aircraft, zero pilot risk.
In 2025 more than 30 countries operate armed drones, 90+ have surveillance fleets.
China and Turkey are the new arms bazaar (CNAS)
November 19, 2025 at 5:18 PM
🧵 2/10
The tech: Bayraktar TB2, Shahed-136, DJI-based FPVs. 90% cheaper than manned aircraft, zero pilot risk.
In 2025 more than 30 countries operate armed drones, 90+ have surveillance fleets.
China and Turkey are the new arms bazaar (CNAS)
The tech: Bayraktar TB2, Shahed-136, DJI-based FPVs. 90% cheaper than manned aircraft, zero pilot risk.
In 2025 more than 30 countries operate armed drones, 90+ have surveillance fleets.
China and Turkey are the new arms bazaar (CNAS)
🧵 10/10
⚖️ Trade binds nations, not breaks them. GATT Art. XXIV reminds us customs unions exist for shared prosperity, not isolation.
For the US, Mexico, and Canada: real sovereignty is interdependence. In a multipolar world, going alone isn’t strength—it’s vulnerability
⚖️ Trade binds nations, not breaks them. GATT Art. XXIV reminds us customs unions exist for shared prosperity, not isolation.
For the US, Mexico, and Canada: real sovereignty is interdependence. In a multipolar world, going alone isn’t strength—it’s vulnerability
November 18, 2025 at 6:49 PM
🧵 10/10
⚖️ Trade binds nations, not breaks them. GATT Art. XXIV reminds us customs unions exist for shared prosperity, not isolation.
For the US, Mexico, and Canada: real sovereignty is interdependence. In a multipolar world, going alone isn’t strength—it’s vulnerability
⚖️ Trade binds nations, not breaks them. GATT Art. XXIV reminds us customs unions exist for shared prosperity, not isolation.
For the US, Mexico, and Canada: real sovereignty is interdependence. In a multipolar world, going alone isn’t strength—it’s vulnerability
🧵 9/10
• Panel victory → tariffs cut in half, stability returns
• Loss → Mexican duties on US corn, Canadian hits on tech → 0.5% US GDP wipeout
Long-term: North America cedes manufacturing crown to Asia
• Panel victory → tariffs cut in half, stability returns
• Loss → Mexican duties on US corn, Canadian hits on tech → 0.5% US GDP wipeout
Long-term: North America cedes manufacturing crown to Asia
November 18, 2025 at 6:49 PM
🧵 9/10
• Panel victory → tariffs cut in half, stability returns
• Loss → Mexican duties on US corn, Canadian hits on tech → 0.5% US GDP wipeout
Long-term: North America cedes manufacturing crown to Asia
• Panel victory → tariffs cut in half, stability returns
• Loss → Mexican duties on US corn, Canadian hits on tech → 0.5% US GDP wipeout
Long-term: North America cedes manufacturing crown to Asia
🧵 8/10
Legal path still open: USMCA Chapter 31 allows binding arbitration panels. Mexico has already signaled intent to challenge. Article 32.10 demands transparency—breaches justify counter-tariffs (remember Mexico’s pork retaliation?). WTO escalation possible
Legal path still open: USMCA Chapter 31 allows binding arbitration panels. Mexico has already signaled intent to challenge. Article 32.10 demands transparency—breaches justify counter-tariffs (remember Mexico’s pork retaliation?). WTO escalation possible
November 18, 2025 at 6:49 PM
🧵 8/10
Legal path still open: USMCA Chapter 31 allows binding arbitration panels. Mexico has already signaled intent to challenge. Article 32.10 demands transparency—breaches justify counter-tariffs (remember Mexico’s pork retaliation?). WTO escalation possible
Legal path still open: USMCA Chapter 31 allows binding arbitration panels. Mexico has already signaled intent to challenge. Article 32.10 demands transparency—breaches justify counter-tariffs (remember Mexico’s pork retaliation?). WTO escalation possible
🧵 7/10
Diplomatic fallout: strained trilateral summits, Mexico & Canada openly exploring BRICS alternatives. A divided North America emboldens Russia and Iran while the West fights wars in Ukraine and the Middle East
Diplomatic fallout: strained trilateral summits, Mexico & Canada openly exploring BRICS alternatives. A divided North America emboldens Russia and Iran while the West fights wars in Ukraine and the Middle East
November 18, 2025 at 6:49 PM
🧵 7/10
Diplomatic fallout: strained trilateral summits, Mexico & Canada openly exploring BRICS alternatives. A divided North America emboldens Russia and Iran while the West fights wars in Ukraine and the Middle East
Diplomatic fallout: strained trilateral summits, Mexico & Canada openly exploring BRICS alternatives. A divided North America emboldens Russia and Iran while the West fights wars in Ukraine and the Middle East
🧵 6/10
The US 🇺🇸 “victory”? Short-term political points, long-term pain: higher inflation, slower factories, and alienated neighbors
The US 🇺🇸 “victory”? Short-term political points, long-term pain: higher inflation, slower factories, and alienated neighbors
November 18, 2025 at 6:49 PM
🧵 6/10
The US 🇺🇸 “victory”? Short-term political points, long-term pain: higher inflation, slower factories, and alienated neighbors
The US 🇺🇸 “victory”? Short-term political points, long-term pain: higher inflation, slower factories, and alienated neighbors
🧵 5/10
Decoupling in real time:
🇲🇽 Up to 500k manufacturing jobs at risk; Ford, GM, Stellantis supply chains collapse
🇨🇦 Alberta oil and lumber sectors bleed billions
Brexit-level disruption, but across a $20 trillion integrated economy
Decoupling in real time:
🇲🇽 Up to 500k manufacturing jobs at risk; Ford, GM, Stellantis supply chains collapse
🇨🇦 Alberta oil and lumber sectors bleed billions
Brexit-level disruption, but across a $20 trillion integrated economy
November 18, 2025 at 6:49 PM
🧵 5/10
Decoupling in real time:
🇲🇽 Up to 500k manufacturing jobs at risk; Ford, GM, Stellantis supply chains collapse
🇨🇦 Alberta oil and lumber sectors bleed billions
Brexit-level disruption, but across a $20 trillion integrated economy
Decoupling in real time:
🇲🇽 Up to 500k manufacturing jobs at risk; Ford, GM, Stellantis supply chains collapse
🇨🇦 Alberta oil and lumber sectors bleed billions
Brexit-level disruption, but across a $20 trillion integrated economy
🧵 4/10
Global Repercussions: This isn't just bilateral—it's a North American unraveling with worldwide echoes. China gains as manufacturers reroute via Asia, weakening USMCA's edge against global rivals
Global Repercussions: This isn't just bilateral—it's a North American unraveling with worldwide echoes. China gains as manufacturers reroute via Asia, weakening USMCA's edge against global rivals
November 18, 2025 at 6:49 PM
🧵 4/10
Global Repercussions: This isn't just bilateral—it's a North American unraveling with worldwide echoes. China gains as manufacturers reroute via Asia, weakening USMCA's edge against global rivals
Global Repercussions: This isn't just bilateral—it's a North American unraveling with worldwide echoes. China gains as manufacturers reroute via Asia, weakening USMCA's edge against global rivals
🧵 3/10
• Mexico (80% exports to US) risks recession
• Canada faces supply shocks and higher costs
• US consumers see pricier cars, appliances, groceries
• Mexico (80% exports to US) risks recession
• Canada faces supply shocks and higher costs
• US consumers see pricier cars, appliances, groceries
November 18, 2025 at 6:49 PM
🧵 3/10
• Mexico (80% exports to US) risks recession
• Canada faces supply shocks and higher costs
• US consumers see pricier cars, appliances, groceries
• Mexico (80% exports to US) risks recession
• Canada faces supply shocks and higher costs
• US consumers see pricier cars, appliances, groceries
🧵 2/10
These tariffs on cars and steel are sold as migration leverage, but they directly undermine the USMCA’s promise of integrated North American trade
These tariffs on cars and steel are sold as migration leverage, but they directly undermine the USMCA’s promise of integrated North American trade
November 18, 2025 at 6:49 PM
🧵 2/10
These tariffs on cars and steel are sold as migration leverage, but they directly undermine the USMCA’s promise of integrated North American trade
These tariffs on cars and steel are sold as migration leverage, but they directly undermine the USMCA’s promise of integrated North American trade
🧵 8/8
NYC doesn’t need another sequel.
You deserve policies that:
✅ Lift without trapping
✅ Grow without enslaving
Congrats Zohran!
NYC: learn from years of LatAm scars.
#ZohranMamdani
NYC doesn’t need another sequel.
You deserve policies that:
✅ Lift without trapping
✅ Grow without enslaving
Congrats Zohran!
NYC: learn from years of LatAm scars.
#ZohranMamdani
November 5, 2025 at 8:36 PM
🧵 8/8
NYC doesn’t need another sequel.
You deserve policies that:
✅ Lift without trapping
✅ Grow without enslaving
Congrats Zohran!
NYC: learn from years of LatAm scars.
#ZohranMamdani
NYC doesn’t need another sequel.
You deserve policies that:
✅ Lift without trapping
✅ Grow without enslaving
Congrats Zohran!
NYC: learn from years of LatAm scars.
#ZohranMamdani