Vincent Ledvina
@vincentledvina.bsky.social
📷”The Aurora Guy”
🌌Space Physics Ph.D. student
📍North Pole, Alaska
🫂Participatory science, science comm.
🌀 Professional aurora chaser
👨💻Views my own
🌌Space Physics Ph.D. student
📍North Pole, Alaska
🫂Participatory science, science comm.
🌀 Professional aurora chaser
👨💻Views my own
Pinned
SWPC has only ever issued a handful of G4 watches, and we have now for Nov 12 due to three incoming CMEs. Storming may begin on Nov 11 with the impact of the first CME with two more close behind it.
If the forecast verifies, much of the U.S. may see the aurora Tue/Wed nights.
If the forecast verifies, much of the U.S. may see the aurora Tue/Wed nights.
Chilly walk today at 3 pm as the sun was setting here in North Pole, AK. Important to soak up a little vitamin D even if the Sun only gets six degrees above the horizon.
November 17, 2025 at 7:15 AM
Chilly walk today at 3 pm as the sun was setting here in North Pole, AK. Important to soak up a little vitamin D even if the Sun only gets six degrees above the horizon.
There were a few nice substorms tonight pushing auroral visibility to the U.S.-Canada border with bright pilars on the horizon. Here is one of those substorms below with the associated spike in GOES Mag highlighted.
November 17, 2025 at 5:39 AM
There were a few nice substorms tonight pushing auroral visibility to the U.S.-Canada border with bright pilars on the horizon. Here is one of those substorms below with the associated spike in GOES Mag highlighted.
There's a slight glow of aurora at Isle Royale, MI currently. Perhaps this could be photographed from near the U.S.-Canada border, but it looks like it wouldn't be naked-eye visible. Nice night regardless.
theauroraguy.com/pages/webcams
theauroraguy.com/pages/webcams
November 17, 2025 at 3:32 AM
There's a slight glow of aurora at Isle Royale, MI currently. Perhaps this could be photographed from near the U.S.-Canada border, but it looks like it wouldn't be naked-eye visible. Nice night regardless.
theauroraguy.com/pages/webcams
theauroraguy.com/pages/webcams
Also, even though the Nov 12 storm was impressive, take a look at another "G4 storm," the Oct 10, 2024 event. By nearly all metrics except the Kp, the October event was stronger - Ap (daily average Kp), Dst, Hp 30, etc. How we define a geomagnetic storm strength matters.
November 16, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Also, even though the Nov 12 storm was impressive, take a look at another "G4 storm," the Oct 10, 2024 event. By nearly all metrics except the Kp, the October event was stronger - Ap (daily average Kp), Dst, Hp 30, etc. How we define a geomagnetic storm strength matters.
Here are the top four geomagnetic storms this cycle in terms of Hp 30. The Apr 23, 2023 storm reached a max Hp 30=9.0, although it was stronger in terms of Dst than the Jan 1, 2025 storm (by 1 nT). The only storm to have officially reached the G5 mark is the May 2024 event.
November 16, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Here are the top four geomagnetic storms this cycle in terms of Hp 30. The Apr 23, 2023 storm reached a max Hp 30=9.0, although it was stronger in terms of Dst than the Jan 1, 2025 storm (by 1 nT). The only storm to have officially reached the G5 mark is the May 2024 event.
All this wasted potential… tonight could have seen G1-G2 storming with the elevated IMF and speed IF (and it’s a big if) the Bz were pointed south. Instead, we currently have Kp 3+ conditions and only a slight glow along the U.S.-Canada border looking north. Bz matters!
November 16, 2025 at 7:53 AM
All this wasted potential… tonight could have seen G1-G2 storming with the elevated IMF and speed IF (and it’s a big if) the Bz were pointed south. Instead, we currently have Kp 3+ conditions and only a slight glow along the U.S.-Canada border looking north. Bz matters!
Pillars going up in Ely, MN. If you're above the 45th parallel and have clear and dark (low light pollution) skies, you might be able to see something on the northern horizon.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
November 16, 2025 at 5:37 AM
Pillars going up in Ely, MN. If you're above the 45th parallel and have clear and dark (low light pollution) skies, you might be able to see something on the northern horizon.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
There is a green glow to the north in Ely, MN indicating some aurora building as a result of this minor CME impact. Views could build slightly, especially if we see more south Bz.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
November 16, 2025 at 4:18 AM
There is a green glow to the north in Ely, MN indicating some aurora building as a result of this minor CME impact. Views could build slightly, especially if we see more south Bz.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
I am watching the Maine cam right now waiting for any auroral activity to appear due to the favorable Bz conditions. The early parts of a CME impact are typically jumpy like this with Bz oscillations. Maybe we will see something soon, though.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
November 16, 2025 at 3:23 AM
I am watching the Maine cam right now waiting for any auroral activity to appear due to the favorable Bz conditions. The early parts of a CME impact are typically jumpy like this with Bz oscillations. Maybe we will see something soon, though.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
The Bz is now pointing south around -10 nT with speeds ~600 km/s. We may see a bit of mid-latitude activity now that conditions have favorably flipped in the right direction. If you're above the 45th parallel, start monitoring for substorm activity.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
November 16, 2025 at 3:18 AM
The Bz is now pointing south around -10 nT with speeds ~600 km/s. We may see a bit of mid-latitude activity now that conditions have favorably flipped in the right direction. If you're above the 45th parallel, start monitoring for substorm activity.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
A small CME has impacted our upstream satellites at L1. There isn't really anything that will change as a result of this, but it could be the X4 CME that was supposed to make a glancing blow impact. So far, the Bz is pinned north.
November 16, 2025 at 1:51 AM
A small CME has impacted our upstream satellites at L1. There isn't really anything that will change as a result of this, but it could be the X4 CME that was supposed to make a glancing blow impact. So far, the Bz is pinned north.
Auroral activity at mid-latitudes is quiet so far, but there is perhaps the slightest chance of a glow along the U.S.-Canada border due to the predominantly south Bz and slightly high wind speed > 500 km/s.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
November 16, 2025 at 1:17 AM
Auroral activity at mid-latitudes is quiet so far, but there is perhaps the slightest chance of a glow along the U.S.-Canada border due to the predominantly south Bz and slightly high wind speed > 500 km/s.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
So you're telling me we have a chance! HUXt gives the X4.0 CME a 3% chance of hitting. An updated NASA model also shows a slim chance of a glancing blow around Nov 16 midday UTC. NOAA still believes the CME will pass west of Earth. Let's see what happens at L1 tomorrow.
November 15, 2025 at 5:19 PM
So you're telling me we have a chance! HUXt gives the X4.0 CME a 3% chance of hitting. An updated NASA model also shows a slim chance of a glancing blow around Nov 16 midday UTC. NOAA still believes the CME will pass west of Earth. Let's see what happens at L1 tomorrow.
This is wild! Here is a mosaic image combining satellite passes from NOAA 21, Suomi NPP, and NOAA 20 showing the auroral oval very extended during the geomagnetic storm earlier this week. I have annotated where the typical auroral oval rests over the north geomagnetic pole.
November 15, 2025 at 4:59 PM
This is wild! Here is a mosaic image combining satellite passes from NOAA 21, Suomi NPP, and NOAA 20 showing the auroral oval very extended during the geomagnetic storm earlier this week. I have annotated where the typical auroral oval rests over the north geomagnetic pole.
Current view from North Pole, Alaska. This photo represents pretty accurately what the aurora looks like to my naked eye right now. The bright outdoor lights on the side of the house accentuate the colors in the sky (cone activation) but diminish the brightness of the aurora (rod suppression).
November 15, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Current view from North Pole, Alaska. This photo represents pretty accurately what the aurora looks like to my naked eye right now. The bright outdoor lights on the side of the house accentuate the colors in the sky (cone activation) but diminish the brightness of the aurora (rod suppression).
Decent growth-phase arc setup over Fairbanks right now! Clear skies for the rest of the night as well, so if you're chasing this, make sure to stay out and be patient. The expansion phase WILL eventually come with dancing and vibrant colors.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
November 15, 2025 at 7:03 AM
Decent growth-phase arc setup over Fairbanks right now! Clear skies for the rest of the night as well, so if you're chasing this, make sure to stay out and be patient. The expansion phase WILL eventually come with dancing and vibrant colors.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
With the X4.0 CME a miss, our next chances of mid-latitude aurora barring any unexpected activity come on Nov 16-17 due to fast solar wind from a northern-hemisphere, negative-polarity coronal hole.
November 15, 2025 at 2:32 AM
With the X4.0 CME a miss, our next chances of mid-latitude aurora barring any unexpected activity come on Nov 16-17 due to fast solar wind from a northern-hemisphere, negative-polarity coronal hole.
Wow! I am looking at some scientific imager data, and here is an all-sky timelapse movie from El Leoncito, Argentina at 6300 Å. You can see the aurora really flare up around 2:35 UT looking on the southern horizon of the image.
November 14, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Wow! I am looking at some scientific imager data, and here is an all-sky timelapse movie from El Leoncito, Argentina at 6300 Å. You can see the aurora really flare up around 2:35 UT looking on the southern horizon of the image.
Current solar wind data are not conducive for mid-latitude aurora with the Bz essentially pinned north, "turning off" the light switch for the aurora except for at very high latitudes. Tonight is another night to catch up on sleep it seems!
November 14, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Current solar wind data are not conducive for mid-latitude aurora with the Bz essentially pinned north, "turning off" the light switch for the aurora except for at very high latitudes. Tonight is another night to catch up on sleep it seems!
According to NOAA SWPC, the X4 CME will have little to no impact at Earth. The time indicated is roughly the time we could see any enhancement in the solar wind due to CME influences. I expect basically nothing from this event, but we the coronal hole coming in a few days.
November 14, 2025 at 6:47 PM
According to NOAA SWPC, the X4 CME will have little to no impact at Earth. The time indicated is roughly the time we could see any enhancement in the solar wind due to CME influences. I expect basically nothing from this event, but we the coronal hole coming in a few days.
SDO AIA 193 Å imagery beside GOES X-rays showing the first CME due to the minor M-flare followed by the wide coronal EUV wave (shockwave) due to the X4 event. This CME may produce a glancing impact at Earth around 12 UT on Nov 16 based on preliminary modeling.
November 14, 2025 at 4:08 PM
SDO AIA 193 Å imagery beside GOES X-rays showing the first CME due to the minor M-flare followed by the wide coronal EUV wave (shockwave) due to the X4 event. This CME may produce a glancing impact at Earth around 12 UT on Nov 16 based on preliminary modeling.
An early model of the X4 CME has been released by the NASA M2M office. It shows a weak glancing blow at Earth around midday UT on Nov 16. The CME could enhance the coronal hole influences around that time. Maybe G1-G2 storming is possible with high uncertainty in my opinion.
#heliophysics
#heliophysics
November 14, 2025 at 4:02 PM
An early model of the X4 CME has been released by the NASA M2M office. It shows a weak glancing blow at Earth around midday UT on Nov 16. The CME could enhance the coronal hole influences around that time. Maybe G1-G2 storming is possible with high uncertainty in my opinion.
#heliophysics
#heliophysics
The X4 CME from AR 4274 generated a nice coronal mass ejection (CME), but most of the blast is headed away from our planet. This is because the active region is positioned on the Sun's limb and not facing Earth like it was last week. Still, we may see a clip from this CME.
#heliophysics
#heliophysics
November 14, 2025 at 3:54 PM
The X4 CME from AR 4274 generated a nice coronal mass ejection (CME), but most of the blast is headed away from our planet. This is because the active region is positioned on the Sun's limb and not facing Earth like it was last week. Still, we may see a clip from this CME.
#heliophysics
#heliophysics
The ongoing X4 flare from AR 4274 is eruptive from the first few frames on GOES SUVI 284 Å. You can see a blast wave beginning to propagate away from the area, indicating a CME has erupted. If the CME is wide enough, Earth could get a glancing blow, but it's too early to say...
November 14, 2025 at 8:41 AM
The ongoing X4 flare from AR 4274 is eruptive from the first few frames on GOES SUVI 284 Å. You can see a blast wave beginning to propagate away from the area, indicating a CME has erupted. If the CME is wide enough, Earth could get a glancing blow, but it's too early to say...
We've reached the peak! X4.05 from AR 4274. It seemed like only a matter of time until we got another big one from this active region, and wow is it a beautiful flare! Monitoring for any CME activity now, but unfortunately the bulk will of any will be directed away from Earth...
November 14, 2025 at 8:37 AM
We've reached the peak! X4.05 from AR 4274. It seemed like only a matter of time until we got another big one from this active region, and wow is it a beautiful flare! Monitoring for any CME activity now, but unfortunately the bulk will of any will be directed away from Earth...