Dr Verner Viisainen
@vernerviisas.bsky.social
Impact Research @sciencebasedtargets.org
ex-@carbonbrief.org
ex-Green Alliance
PhD in Engineering
he/him
Personal account. Views expressed are my own and not those of my employer
ex-@carbonbrief.org
ex-Green Alliance
PhD in Engineering
he/him
Personal account. Views expressed are my own and not those of my employer
*Assuming that production reduction continues linearly at the same rate between 2040-50 as between 2025-40 and that the emissions intensity of plastics stays the same throughout (simplified assumption as likely to see at least some reduction through decarbonisation measures - see below).
5/END
5/END
November 29, 2024 at 11:47 AM
*Assuming that production reduction continues linearly at the same rate between 2040-50 as between 2025-40 and that the emissions intensity of plastics stays the same throughout (simplified assumption as likely to see at least some reduction through decarbonisation measures - see below).
5/END
5/END
Thanks to Dan Gocher for the useful daily insights from on the ground in Busan!
Only a few days to go until negotiations wrap up on Sunday!
Read more of our analysis in the article we released earlier this week with @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org:
https://buff.ly/4g6vCP3
4/
Only a few days to go until negotiations wrap up on Sunday!
Read more of our analysis in the article we released earlier this week with @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org:
https://buff.ly/4g6vCP3
4/
November 29, 2024 at 11:44 AM
Thanks to Dan Gocher for the useful daily insights from on the ground in Busan!
Only a few days to go until negotiations wrap up on Sunday!
Read more of our analysis in the article we released earlier this week with @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org:
https://buff.ly/4g6vCP3
4/
Only a few days to go until negotiations wrap up on Sunday!
Read more of our analysis in the article we released earlier this week with @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org:
https://buff.ly/4g6vCP3
4/
In the chair's latest draft treaty text that came out this morning...
this Panama proposal has been added as an option under Article 6 on 'Supply/Sustainable Production'.
Let's see if it makes it into the final text.
https://buff.ly/3ZtNOwD
3/
this Panama proposal has been added as an option under Article 6 on 'Supply/Sustainable Production'.
Let's see if it makes it into the final text.
https://buff.ly/3ZtNOwD
3/
November 29, 2024 at 11:44 AM
In the chair's latest draft treaty text that came out this morning...
this Panama proposal has been added as an option under Article 6 on 'Supply/Sustainable Production'.
Let's see if it makes it into the final text.
https://buff.ly/3ZtNOwD
3/
this Panama proposal has been added as an option under Article 6 on 'Supply/Sustainable Production'.
Let's see if it makes it into the final text.
https://buff.ly/3ZtNOwD
3/
Building on this, on Weds, Panama published a new proposal on supply, backed by nearly 100 other countries.
It calls on countries to set a global target "to reduce the production primary plastic polymers to sustainable levels".
Momentum seems to be building.
https://buff.ly/49jT7lp
2/
It calls on countries to set a global target "to reduce the production primary plastic polymers to sustainable levels".
Momentum seems to be building.
https://buff.ly/49jT7lp
2/
November 29, 2024 at 11:44 AM
Building on this, on Weds, Panama published a new proposal on supply, backed by nearly 100 other countries.
It calls on countries to set a global target "to reduce the production primary plastic polymers to sustainable levels".
Momentum seems to be building.
https://buff.ly/49jT7lp
2/
It calls on countries to set a global target "to reduce the production primary plastic polymers to sustainable levels".
Momentum seems to be building.
https://buff.ly/49jT7lp
2/
Is a plastic production reduction target on the cards at #INC-5?
The PSIDS group submitted a proposal on Tues that calls for a 40x40 target (40%⬇️ on 2025 levels by 2040): https://buff.ly/4eUAXrs
We show that 40x40 could cut plastics cumu. emissions between 2024-50 by half* wrt to BAU.
1/
The PSIDS group submitted a proposal on Tues that calls for a 40x40 target (40%⬇️ on 2025 levels by 2040): https://buff.ly/4eUAXrs
We show that 40x40 could cut plastics cumu. emissions between 2024-50 by half* wrt to BAU.
1/
November 29, 2024 at 11:44 AM
Is a plastic production reduction target on the cards at #INC-5?
The PSIDS group submitted a proposal on Tues that calls for a 40x40 target (40%⬇️ on 2025 levels by 2040): https://buff.ly/4eUAXrs
We show that 40x40 could cut plastics cumu. emissions between 2024-50 by half* wrt to BAU.
1/
The PSIDS group submitted a proposal on Tues that calls for a 40x40 target (40%⬇️ on 2025 levels by 2040): https://buff.ly/4eUAXrs
We show that 40x40 could cut plastics cumu. emissions between 2024-50 by half* wrt to BAU.
1/
The 1.5C temperature goal from the Paris Agreement refers to a longer term global average temperature so we have not reached that yet even though we have passed 1.5C over the last year.
See this piece from my colleague Zeke:
www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the...
See this piece from my colleague Zeke:
www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the...
November 26, 2024 at 9:23 AM
The 1.5C temperature goal from the Paris Agreement refers to a longer term global average temperature so we have not reached that yet even though we have passed 1.5C over the last year.
See this piece from my colleague Zeke:
www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the...
See this piece from my colleague Zeke:
www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the...
The article has now also been updated with the corrected chart:
November 26, 2024 at 9:18 AM
The article has now also been updated with the corrected chart:
Reason 6: This treaty will define future successes.
Plastics are where climate was in 1992 with UNFCCC, defining the rules for future COPs to follow.
If the treaty is vague and actions not legally binding, future success could be limited.
Getting this right, inc voting rules, is critical.
7/
Plastics are where climate was in 1992 with UNFCCC, defining the rules for future COPs to follow.
If the treaty is vague and actions not legally binding, future success could be limited.
Getting this right, inc voting rules, is critical.
7/
November 25, 2024 at 9:24 PM
Reason 6: This treaty will define future successes.
Plastics are where climate was in 1992 with UNFCCC, defining the rules for future COPs to follow.
If the treaty is vague and actions not legally binding, future success could be limited.
Getting this right, inc voting rules, is critical.
7/
Plastics are where climate was in 1992 with UNFCCC, defining the rules for future COPs to follow.
If the treaty is vague and actions not legally binding, future success could be limited.
Getting this right, inc voting rules, is critical.
7/
Reason 5: Getting plastics to net zero will be tricky without addressing production.
A net zero plastics sector under BAU would require:
- Huge scale up of alternative feedstocks - limited by biomass and renewables availability
- V. high plastic recycling rates - challenging in practice
6/
A net zero plastics sector under BAU would require:
- Huge scale up of alternative feedstocks - limited by biomass and renewables availability
- V. high plastic recycling rates - challenging in practice
6/
November 25, 2024 at 9:24 PM
Reason 5: Getting plastics to net zero will be tricky without addressing production.
A net zero plastics sector under BAU would require:
- Huge scale up of alternative feedstocks - limited by biomass and renewables availability
- V. high plastic recycling rates - challenging in practice
6/
A net zero plastics sector under BAU would require:
- Huge scale up of alternative feedstocks - limited by biomass and renewables availability
- V. high plastic recycling rates - challenging in practice
6/
Reason 4: The treaty could set a cap on global plastics production, which could bring down emissions significantly.
Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4: future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU.
5/
Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4: future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU.
5/
November 25, 2024 at 9:24 PM
Reason 4: The treaty could set a cap on global plastics production, which could bring down emissions significantly.
Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4: future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU.
5/
Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4: future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU.
5/
Reason 3: Under BAU, plastics emissions are expected to double by 2050 and this could use up half our remaining carbon budget for 1.5C.
This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year.
Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year.
4/
This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year.
Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year.
4/
November 25, 2024 at 9:24 PM
Reason 3: Under BAU, plastics emissions are expected to double by 2050 and this could use up half our remaining carbon budget for 1.5C.
This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year.
Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year.
4/
This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year.
Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year.
4/
Reason 2: Plastics are driving the growth in oil demand and so propping up fossil fuel use
Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil.
According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates.
3/
Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil.
According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates.
3/
November 25, 2024 at 9:24 PM
Reason 2: Plastics are driving the growth in oil demand and so propping up fossil fuel use
Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil.
According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates.
3/
Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil.
According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates.
3/
Reason 1: Because plastics are a large source of GHGs -
around 5% of global emissions.
Across their whole lifecycle, plastics emit around 2.7 bn tCO2e per year.
This puts them above energy use related emissions from oil and gas extraction and aviation.
[UPDATE: corrected chart]
2/
around 5% of global emissions.
Across their whole lifecycle, plastics emit around 2.7 bn tCO2e per year.
This puts them above energy use related emissions from oil and gas extraction and aviation.
[UPDATE: corrected chart]
2/
November 25, 2024 at 9:24 PM
Reason 1: Because plastics are a large source of GHGs -
around 5% of global emissions.
Across their whole lifecycle, plastics emit around 2.7 bn tCO2e per year.
This puts them above energy use related emissions from oil and gas extraction and aviation.
[UPDATE: corrected chart]
2/
around 5% of global emissions.
Across their whole lifecycle, plastics emit around 2.7 bn tCO2e per year.
This puts them above energy use related emissions from oil and gas extraction and aviation.
[UPDATE: corrected chart]
2/
There was a mistake in this chart so it has been removed. The corrected chart is as follows:
Lifecycle Plastics emissions are still greater than energy related emissions in oil and gas and aviation, but only 75% of the emissions of energy use in buildings.
This will be corrected in the article.
Lifecycle Plastics emissions are still greater than energy related emissions in oil and gas and aviation, but only 75% of the emissions of energy use in buildings.
This will be corrected in the article.
November 25, 2024 at 9:03 PM
There was a mistake in this chart so it has been removed. The corrected chart is as follows:
Lifecycle Plastics emissions are still greater than energy related emissions in oil and gas and aviation, but only 75% of the emissions of energy use in buildings.
This will be corrected in the article.
Lifecycle Plastics emissions are still greater than energy related emissions in oil and gas and aviation, but only 75% of the emissions of energy use in buildings.
This will be corrected in the article.
Thanks to my CB colleagues:
- @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org for the article text.
- Kerry, @jjgoodman.bsky.social and @tomoprater.carbonbrief.org for charts and visuals.
And Daniela Duran Gonzalez (of CIEL) for her insights.
Read the full article below ⬇️
https://buff.ly/4g6vCP3
8/End
- @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org for the article text.
- Kerry, @jjgoodman.bsky.social and @tomoprater.carbonbrief.org for charts and visuals.
And Daniela Duran Gonzalez (of CIEL) for her insights.
Read the full article below ⬇️
https://buff.ly/4g6vCP3
8/End
November 25, 2024 at 3:37 PM
Thanks to my CB colleagues:
- @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org for the article text.
- Kerry, @jjgoodman.bsky.social and @tomoprater.carbonbrief.org for charts and visuals.
And Daniela Duran Gonzalez (of CIEL) for her insights.
Read the full article below ⬇️
https://buff.ly/4g6vCP3
8/End
- @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org for the article text.
- Kerry, @jjgoodman.bsky.social and @tomoprater.carbonbrief.org for charts and visuals.
And Daniela Duran Gonzalez (of CIEL) for her insights.
Read the full article below ⬇️
https://buff.ly/4g6vCP3
8/End
Reason 6: This treaty will define future successes.
Plastics are where climate was in 1992 with UNFCCC, defining the rules for future COPs to follow.
If the treaty is vague and actions not legally binding, future success could be limited.
Getting this right, inc voting rules, is critical.
7/
Plastics are where climate was in 1992 with UNFCCC, defining the rules for future COPs to follow.
If the treaty is vague and actions not legally binding, future success could be limited.
Getting this right, inc voting rules, is critical.
7/
November 25, 2024 at 3:37 PM
Reason 6: This treaty will define future successes.
Plastics are where climate was in 1992 with UNFCCC, defining the rules for future COPs to follow.
If the treaty is vague and actions not legally binding, future success could be limited.
Getting this right, inc voting rules, is critical.
7/
Plastics are where climate was in 1992 with UNFCCC, defining the rules for future COPs to follow.
If the treaty is vague and actions not legally binding, future success could be limited.
Getting this right, inc voting rules, is critical.
7/
Reason 5: Getting plastics to net zero will be tricky without addressing production.
A net zero plastics sector under BAU would require:
- Huge scale up of alternative feedstocks - limited by biomass and renewables availability
- V. high plastic recycling rates - challenging in practice
6/
A net zero plastics sector under BAU would require:
- Huge scale up of alternative feedstocks - limited by biomass and renewables availability
- V. high plastic recycling rates - challenging in practice
6/
November 25, 2024 at 3:37 PM
Reason 5: Getting plastics to net zero will be tricky without addressing production.
A net zero plastics sector under BAU would require:
- Huge scale up of alternative feedstocks - limited by biomass and renewables availability
- V. high plastic recycling rates - challenging in practice
6/
A net zero plastics sector under BAU would require:
- Huge scale up of alternative feedstocks - limited by biomass and renewables availability
- V. high plastic recycling rates - challenging in practice
6/
Reason 4: The treaty could set a cap on global plastics production, which could bring down emissions significantly.
Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4:
Future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU.
5/
Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4:
Future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU.
5/
November 25, 2024 at 3:37 PM
Reason 4: The treaty could set a cap on global plastics production, which could bring down emissions significantly.
Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4:
Future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU.
5/
Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4:
Future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU.
5/
Reason 3: Under BAU, plastics emissions are expected to double by 2050 and this could use up half our remaining carbon budget for 1.5C.
This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year.
Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year.
4/
This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year.
Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year.
4/
November 25, 2024 at 3:37 PM
Reason 3: Under BAU, plastics emissions are expected to double by 2050 and this could use up half our remaining carbon budget for 1.5C.
This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year.
Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year.
4/
This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year.
Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year.
4/
Reason 2: Plastics are driving the growth in oil demand and so propping up fossil fuel use
Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil.
According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates.
3/
Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil.
According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates.
3/
November 25, 2024 at 3:37 PM
Reason 2: Plastics are driving the growth in oil demand and so propping up fossil fuel use
Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil.
According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates.
3/
Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil.
According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates.
3/
Amidst #COP29, you might have missed it but, the most important environmental treaty since the #Paris is being negotiated THIS week!
At the #INC-5 in Busan, countries are hoping to strike an agreement on a global treaty to reduce #plastic pollution.
But why is this relevant for climate? A 🧵
1/
At the #INC-5 in Busan, countries are hoping to strike an agreement on a global treaty to reduce #plastic pollution.
But why is this relevant for climate? A 🧵
1/
November 25, 2024 at 3:37 PM
Reason 4: The treaty could set a cap on global plastics production, which could bring down emissions significantly.
Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4:
Future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU.
5/
Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4:
Future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU.
5/
November 25, 2024 at 3:29 PM
Reason 4: The treaty could set a cap on global plastics production, which could bring down emissions significantly.
Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4:
Future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU.
5/
Under Rwanda and Peru’s 40x40 proposal (40% reduction by 2040 on 2025 levels) from INC-4:
Future cumulative emissions from plastics could be halved by 2050 compared to BAU.
5/
Reason 3: Under BAU, plastics emissions are expected to double by 2050 and this could use up half our remaining carbon budget for 1.5C.
This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year.
Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year.
4/
This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year.
Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year.
4/
November 25, 2024 at 3:29 PM
Reason 3: Under BAU, plastics emissions are expected to double by 2050 and this could use up half our remaining carbon budget for 1.5C.
This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year.
Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year.
4/
This is based on OECD projections who estimate that plastics use grows at about 2.5% a year.
Others have suggested it could be closer to 4% a year.
4/
REASON 2: Plastics are driving the growth in oil demand and so propping up fossil fuel use
Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil.
According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates.
3/
Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil.
According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates.
3/
November 25, 2024 at 3:29 PM
REASON 2: Plastics are driving the growth in oil demand and so propping up fossil fuel use
Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil.
According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates.
3/
Most plastics are made from fossil fuels, including oil.
According to IEA, petrochemicals (read: mostly plastics) are the main driver of oil demand growth, as growth in other sectors stagnates.
3/
Reason 1: Because plastics are a large source of GHGs - around 5% of global emissions.
Across their whole lifecycle, plastics emit around 2.7 bn tCO2e per year.
This puts them above aviation, oil and gas extraction and energy use in buildings.
2/
Across their whole lifecycle, plastics emit around 2.7 bn tCO2e per year.
This puts them above aviation, oil and gas extraction and energy use in buildings.
2/
November 25, 2024 at 3:29 PM
Reason 1: Because plastics are a large source of GHGs - around 5% of global emissions.
Across their whole lifecycle, plastics emit around 2.7 bn tCO2e per year.
This puts them above aviation, oil and gas extraction and energy use in buildings.
2/
Across their whole lifecycle, plastics emit around 2.7 bn tCO2e per year.
This puts them above aviation, oil and gas extraction and energy use in buildings.
2/