Valentin Smoliak
@valentinsmoliak.bsky.social
Geopolitical analyst, musicologist, composer, researcher & writer
🇺🇦🇪🇺🇺🇸🇫🇷🇲🇩
Works:
https://linktr.ee/valentinsmoliak?utm_source=linktree_profile_share<sid=68fd646e-8436-4d9b-bb75-1b7393770a4d
🇺🇦🇪🇺🇺🇸🇫🇷🇲🇩
Works:
https://linktr.ee/valentinsmoliak?utm_source=linktree_profile_share<sid=68fd646e-8436-4d9b-bb75-1b7393770a4d
💡Empires do not rely on force alone. They endure by occupying symbols — long after the guns are heard.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
The Illusion of Apolitical Art: How Russian Soft Power Operates in Europe
Originally published in Kyivdesk. © All rights reserved
substack.com
February 9, 2026 at 9:20 AM
💡Empires do not rely on force alone. They endure by occupying symbols — long after the guns are heard.
substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com/home/post/p-...
Cette « culture apolitique » en temps de guerre est une illusion.
L’ambassade d’Ukraine a demandé l’annulation de concerts d’artistes russes proches du régime. La réponse — “liberté artistique” — masque un désaccord plus profond : la culture peut servir de soft power, même sans artillerie. ⬇️
L’ambassade d’Ukraine a demandé l’annulation de concerts d’artistes russes proches du régime. La réponse — “liberté artistique” — masque un désaccord plus profond : la culture peut servir de soft power, même sans artillerie. ⬇️
February 8, 2026 at 6:43 PM
Cette « culture apolitique » en temps de guerre est une illusion.
L’ambassade d’Ukraine a demandé l’annulation de concerts d’artistes russes proches du régime. La réponse — “liberté artistique” — masque un désaccord plus profond : la culture peut servir de soft power, même sans artillerie. ⬇️
L’ambassade d’Ukraine a demandé l’annulation de concerts d’artistes russes proches du régime. La réponse — “liberté artistique” — masque un désaccord plus profond : la culture peut servir de soft power, même sans artillerie. ⬇️
1/3 🔥 This war isn’t only about territory — it’s about identity.
For Russia, Ukraine is about control and historical dominance. For Eastern Europe, Ukraine’s survival is existential, shaped by memories of empire, occupation, and repression.
Full text link in comments.
For Russia, Ukraine is about control and historical dominance. For Eastern Europe, Ukraine’s survival is existential, shaped by memories of empire, occupation, and repression.
Full text link in comments.
February 2, 2026 at 6:59 PM
1/3 🔥 This war isn’t only about territory — it’s about identity.
For Russia, Ukraine is about control and historical dominance. For Eastern Europe, Ukraine’s survival is existential, shaped by memories of empire, occupation, and repression.
Full text link in comments.
For Russia, Ukraine is about control and historical dominance. For Eastern Europe, Ukraine’s survival is existential, shaped by memories of empire, occupation, and repression.
Full text link in comments.
Putin is not seeking peace — he’s betting on time.
Moscow treats diplomacy as a tactical game, not a way to end the war, using negotiations to delay real pressure. Talks like Abu Dhabi are labeled “constructive” but function mainly to buy time, not resolve conflict.
Full text link in the comments.
Moscow treats diplomacy as a tactical game, not a way to end the war, using negotiations to delay real pressure. Talks like Abu Dhabi are labeled “constructive” but function mainly to buy time, not resolve conflict.
Full text link in the comments.
January 31, 2026 at 11:46 AM
Putin is not seeking peace — he’s betting on time.
Moscow treats diplomacy as a tactical game, not a way to end the war, using negotiations to delay real pressure. Talks like Abu Dhabi are labeled “constructive” but function mainly to buy time, not resolve conflict.
Full text link in the comments.
Moscow treats diplomacy as a tactical game, not a way to end the war, using negotiations to delay real pressure. Talks like Abu Dhabi are labeled “constructive” but function mainly to buy time, not resolve conflict.
Full text link in the comments.
💡Putin is not seeking peace. He is betting on exhaustion – of Ukraine, its army, and Western political will. In this logic, negotiations are not a path to compromise but a tool to buy time and reshape the battlefield in Russia’s favour.
January 30, 2026 at 8:39 PM
💡Putin is not seeking peace. He is betting on exhaustion – of Ukraine, its army, and Western political will. In this logic, negotiations are not a path to compromise but a tool to buy time and reshape the battlefield in Russia’s favour.
💡Public statements suggesting that Ukraine could join the European Union as early as 2027 should be understood primarily as political rhetoric. They serve above all as short-term signals of encouragement rather than as a reflection of a realistic integration pathway.
January 29, 2026 at 7:54 PM
💡Public statements suggesting that Ukraine could join the European Union as early as 2027 should be understood primarily as political rhetoric. They serve above all as short-term signals of encouragement rather than as a reflection of a realistic integration pathway.
1/3
💡Ukraine won’t join the EU in 2027.
Accession talk is political hope, not reality. The EU does not admit countries with active or frozen conflicts. Even Montenegro — at peace, euro-using, reforming — still faces delays beyond 2028. War blocks membership.
💡Ukraine won’t join the EU in 2027.
Accession talk is political hope, not reality. The EU does not admit countries with active or frozen conflicts. Even Montenegro — at peace, euro-using, reforming — still faces delays beyond 2028. War blocks membership.
January 29, 2026 at 10:17 AM
1/3
💡Ukraine won’t join the EU in 2027.
Accession talk is political hope, not reality. The EU does not admit countries with active or frozen conflicts. Even Montenegro — at peace, euro-using, reforming — still faces delays beyond 2028. War blocks membership.
💡Ukraine won’t join the EU in 2027.
Accession talk is political hope, not reality. The EU does not admit countries with active or frozen conflicts. Even Montenegro — at peace, euro-using, reforming — still faces delays beyond 2028. War blocks membership.
💡And while Europe talks about pressure, it still buys Russian fertilizers, LNG keeps flowing until late 2026, and oil moves via a “shadow fleet.”
This isn’t isolation — it’s managed endurance. The war economy survives because the back door stays open.
Full: ⬇️
This isn’t isolation — it’s managed endurance. The war economy survives because the back door stays open.
Full: ⬇️
January 25, 2026 at 6:56 PM
💡And while Europe talks about pressure, it still buys Russian fertilizers, LNG keeps flowing until late 2026, and oil moves via a “shadow fleet.”
This isn’t isolation — it’s managed endurance. The war economy survives because the back door stays open.
Full: ⬇️
This isn’t isolation — it’s managed endurance. The war economy survives because the back door stays open.
Full: ⬇️
⚡️A quiet turning point in the war:
in January 2026, Ukraine, the US, and Russia held their first substantive trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi. The shift matters — the process moved from public rhetoric to real discussions about possible settlement mechanics. ⬇️
in January 2026, Ukraine, the US, and Russia held their first substantive trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi. The shift matters — the process moved from public rhetoric to real discussions about possible settlement mechanics. ⬇️
January 24, 2026 at 8:53 PM
⚡️A quiet turning point in the war:
in January 2026, Ukraine, the US, and Russia held their first substantive trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi. The shift matters — the process moved from public rhetoric to real discussions about possible settlement mechanics. ⬇️
in January 2026, Ukraine, the US, and Russia held their first substantive trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi. The shift matters — the process moved from public rhetoric to real discussions about possible settlement mechanics. ⬇️
1/3
Since 2014, Russia’s war against Ukraine has become more than a conflict. It is the foundation of the Kremlin’s power. For Putin’s system, war legitimizes repression, unity, and control. Peace would expose corruption, economic decay, and state failure.
Since 2014, Russia’s war against Ukraine has become more than a conflict. It is the foundation of the Kremlin’s power. For Putin’s system, war legitimizes repression, unity, and control. Peace would expose corruption, economic decay, and state failure.
January 20, 2026 at 8:08 PM
1/3
Since 2014, Russia’s war against Ukraine has become more than a conflict. It is the foundation of the Kremlin’s power. For Putin’s system, war legitimizes repression, unity, and control. Peace would expose corruption, economic decay, and state failure.
Since 2014, Russia’s war against Ukraine has become more than a conflict. It is the foundation of the Kremlin’s power. For Putin’s system, war legitimizes repression, unity, and control. Peace would expose corruption, economic decay, and state failure.
Dans cet entretien avec Kyiv Desk, je parle de la musique ukrainienne.
J’évoque aussi la question de l’appropriation de la culture ukrainienne par la Russie, et le rôle de la musique comme espace de mémoire et de résistance symbolique dans le contexte actuel.
Full : premier commentaire 👇
J’évoque aussi la question de l’appropriation de la culture ukrainienne par la Russie, et le rôle de la musique comme espace de mémoire et de résistance symbolique dans le contexte actuel.
Full : premier commentaire 👇
January 20, 2026 at 12:12 PM
Dans cet entretien avec Kyiv Desk, je parle de la musique ukrainienne.
J’évoque aussi la question de l’appropriation de la culture ukrainienne par la Russie, et le rôle de la musique comme espace de mémoire et de résistance symbolique dans le contexte actuel.
Full : premier commentaire 👇
J’évoque aussi la question de l’appropriation de la culture ukrainienne par la Russie, et le rôle de la musique comme espace de mémoire et de résistance symbolique dans le contexte actuel.
Full : premier commentaire 👇
Trump is reshaping the North Atlantic — and allies are caught in the crossfire.
Under America First, the US has become unpredictable, forcing partners like Canada to pivot toward China as an alternative. This isn’t a strategic choice but a hybrid survival response to peeling apart old alliances ⬇️
Under America First, the US has become unpredictable, forcing partners like Canada to pivot toward China as an alternative. This isn’t a strategic choice but a hybrid survival response to peeling apart old alliances ⬇️
January 19, 2026 at 8:55 PM
Trump is reshaping the North Atlantic — and allies are caught in the crossfire.
Under America First, the US has become unpredictable, forcing partners like Canada to pivot toward China as an alternative. This isn’t a strategic choice but a hybrid survival response to peeling apart old alliances ⬇️
Under America First, the US has become unpredictable, forcing partners like Canada to pivot toward China as an alternative. This isn’t a strategic choice but a hybrid survival response to peeling apart old alliances ⬇️
1/2 North Atlantic chaos under Trump
Trump’s fanatical America First approach has turned allies like Canada into unstable partners. Ottawa pivots to China as an economic lifeline, blending democratic principles with growing dependence on an authoritarian power. Follow for deeper analysis 👇
Trump’s fanatical America First approach has turned allies like Canada into unstable partners. Ottawa pivots to China as an economic lifeline, blending democratic principles with growing dependence on an authoritarian power. Follow for deeper analysis 👇
January 19, 2026 at 10:31 AM
1/2 North Atlantic chaos under Trump
Trump’s fanatical America First approach has turned allies like Canada into unstable partners. Ottawa pivots to China as an economic lifeline, blending democratic principles with growing dependence on an authoritarian power. Follow for deeper analysis 👇
Trump’s fanatical America First approach has turned allies like Canada into unstable partners. Ottawa pivots to China as an economic lifeline, blending democratic principles with growing dependence on an authoritarian power. Follow for deeper analysis 👇
1/3 🔥 Le « mur de drones » européen : illusion ou protection ?
L’UE planifie un réseau pour contrer les drones et menaces hybrides, mais sans coordination totale avec l’Ukraine, ce système risque d’être plus symbolique que réel.
L’article complet ⬇️
L’UE planifie un réseau pour contrer les drones et menaces hybrides, mais sans coordination totale avec l’Ukraine, ce système risque d’être plus symbolique que réel.
L’article complet ⬇️
January 18, 2026 at 9:30 PM
1/3 🔥 Le « mur de drones » européen : illusion ou protection ?
L’UE planifie un réseau pour contrer les drones et menaces hybrides, mais sans coordination totale avec l’Ukraine, ce système risque d’être plus symbolique que réel.
L’article complet ⬇️
L’UE planifie un réseau pour contrer les drones et menaces hybrides, mais sans coordination totale avec l’Ukraine, ce système risque d’être plus symbolique que réel.
L’article complet ⬇️
1/3 🎶 L’Ukraine, source musicale oubliée?
Dans une Suite ukrainienne, Valentin Smoliak retrace l’histoire de la musique classique en Ukraine du XVIIᵉ siècle à aujourd’hui. Kyiv a longtemps influencé — et non importé — des formes musicales majeures. Suivez pour plus d’analyses 👇
Dans une Suite ukrainienne, Valentin Smoliak retrace l’histoire de la musique classique en Ukraine du XVIIᵉ siècle à aujourd’hui. Kyiv a longtemps influencé — et non importé — des formes musicales majeures. Suivez pour plus d’analyses 👇
January 18, 2026 at 11:31 AM
1/3 🎶 L’Ukraine, source musicale oubliée?
Dans une Suite ukrainienne, Valentin Smoliak retrace l’histoire de la musique classique en Ukraine du XVIIᵉ siècle à aujourd’hui. Kyiv a longtemps influencé — et non importé — des formes musicales majeures. Suivez pour plus d’analyses 👇
Dans une Suite ukrainienne, Valentin Smoliak retrace l’histoire de la musique classique en Ukraine du XVIIᵉ siècle à aujourd’hui. Kyiv a longtemps influencé — et non importé — des formes musicales majeures. Suivez pour plus d’analyses 👇
1/4 🧵
Trump now admits the global deadlock—especially over Ukraine—is far more complex than expected.
He still leaves room for a “minimal deal,” assuming Putin might compromise. But Moscow’s behavior signals something else: Russia believes time and momentum are on its side.
Trump now admits the global deadlock—especially over Ukraine—is far more complex than expected.
He still leaves room for a “minimal deal,” assuming Putin might compromise. But Moscow’s behavior signals something else: Russia believes time and momentum are on its side.
January 17, 2026 at 4:21 PM
1/4 🧵
Trump now admits the global deadlock—especially over Ukraine—is far more complex than expected.
He still leaves room for a “minimal deal,” assuming Putin might compromise. But Moscow’s behavior signals something else: Russia believes time and momentum are on its side.
Trump now admits the global deadlock—especially over Ukraine—is far more complex than expected.
He still leaves room for a “minimal deal,” assuming Putin might compromise. But Moscow’s behavior signals something else: Russia believes time and momentum are on its side.
1/3 Europe under pressure
The “great replacement” myth predates COVID. With Trump’s 2025 return, it’s back — now echoed in US policy debates. Migration isn’t Europe’s main threat. External backing of radical-right movements is.
Follow for deeper analysis 👇
The “great replacement” myth predates COVID. With Trump’s 2025 return, it’s back — now echoed in US policy debates. Migration isn’t Europe’s main threat. External backing of radical-right movements is.
Follow for deeper analysis 👇
January 15, 2026 at 9:35 PM
1/3 Europe under pressure
The “great replacement” myth predates COVID. With Trump’s 2025 return, it’s back — now echoed in US policy debates. Migration isn’t Europe’s main threat. External backing of radical-right movements is.
Follow for deeper analysis 👇
The “great replacement” myth predates COVID. With Trump’s 2025 return, it’s back — now echoed in US policy debates. Migration isn’t Europe’s main threat. External backing of radical-right movements is.
Follow for deeper analysis 👇
1️⃣
Trump’s second term runs on a paradox: abroad, cold America First realism — sanctions, coercion, control of resources. At home, managed populist chaos and permanent mobilization. Two logics operating at once.
Trump’s second term runs on a paradox: abroad, cold America First realism — sanctions, coercion, control of resources. At home, managed populist chaos and permanent mobilization. Two logics operating at once.
January 13, 2026 at 10:03 PM
1️⃣
Trump’s second term runs on a paradox: abroad, cold America First realism — sanctions, coercion, control of resources. At home, managed populist chaos and permanent mobilization. Two logics operating at once.
Trump’s second term runs on a paradox: abroad, cold America First realism — sanctions, coercion, control of resources. At home, managed populist chaos and permanent mobilization. Two logics operating at once.
1️⃣ 🚨 Le second mandat de Trump repose sur un paradoxe clair.
À l’extérieur : une stratégie America First cohérente (coercition économique, contrôle des ressources, pression ciblée).
À l’intérieur : un chaos politique maîtrisé fondé sur le populisme et la mobilisation permanente.
À l’extérieur : une stratégie America First cohérente (coercition économique, contrôle des ressources, pression ciblée).
À l’intérieur : un chaos politique maîtrisé fondé sur le populisme et la mobilisation permanente.
January 13, 2026 at 5:55 PM
1️⃣ 🚨 Le second mandat de Trump repose sur un paradoxe clair.
À l’extérieur : une stratégie America First cohérente (coercition économique, contrôle des ressources, pression ciblée).
À l’intérieur : un chaos politique maîtrisé fondé sur le populisme et la mobilisation permanente.
À l’extérieur : une stratégie America First cohérente (coercition économique, contrôle des ressources, pression ciblée).
À l’intérieur : un chaos politique maîtrisé fondé sur le populisme et la mobilisation permanente.
1️⃣ 🧠 Trump has set the stage for a new, tougher sanctions regime on Russia.
Congress-backed secondary sanctions — including tariffs on countries still importing Russian energy — signal a shift from symbolic measures to concrete geopolitical pressure.
Congress-backed secondary sanctions — including tariffs on countries still importing Russian energy — signal a shift from symbolic measures to concrete geopolitical pressure.
January 12, 2026 at 9:18 PM
1️⃣ 🧠 Trump has set the stage for a new, tougher sanctions regime on Russia.
Congress-backed secondary sanctions — including tariffs on countries still importing Russian energy — signal a shift from symbolic measures to concrete geopolitical pressure.
Congress-backed secondary sanctions — including tariffs on countries still importing Russian energy — signal a shift from symbolic measures to concrete geopolitical pressure.
1️⃣ The Epstein Affair isn’t just a scandal — it’s a crisis of trust.
Even without a “client list,” patterns of elite access and long-standing associations with powerful figures have left many questioning whether the wealthy and connected play by the same rules as everyone else.
Even without a “client list,” patterns of elite access and long-standing associations with powerful figures have left many questioning whether the wealthy and connected play by the same rules as everyone else.
January 12, 2026 at 10:21 AM
1️⃣ The Epstein Affair isn’t just a scandal — it’s a crisis of trust.
Even without a “client list,” patterns of elite access and long-standing associations with powerful figures have left many questioning whether the wealthy and connected play by the same rules as everyone else.
Even without a “client list,” patterns of elite access and long-standing associations with powerful figures have left many questioning whether the wealthy and connected play by the same rules as everyone else.
1️⃣ ♟️ Trump’s approach aligns with Europe’s strategy on Ukraine.
A U.S. withdrawal risks repeating Afghanistan — far costlier and damaging to America’s credibility. Maintaining pressure preserves leverage.
A U.S. withdrawal risks repeating Afghanistan — far costlier and damaging to America’s credibility. Maintaining pressure preserves leverage.
January 11, 2026 at 11:01 PM
1️⃣ ♟️ Trump’s approach aligns with Europe’s strategy on Ukraine.
A U.S. withdrawal risks repeating Afghanistan — far costlier and damaging to America’s credibility. Maintaining pressure preserves leverage.
A U.S. withdrawal risks repeating Afghanistan — far costlier and damaging to America’s credibility. Maintaining pressure preserves leverage.
1/5
2026 Paris Declaration echoes 1919:
post-WWI treaties aimed at stability but fueled WWII via punishment & blind spots. Now Macron, Starmer & Zelenskyy plan post-ceasefire troops in Ukraine — hubs, monitoring, EU/NATO ties. Real security or diplomatic show? History warns: words need will. ⬇️
2026 Paris Declaration echoes 1919:
post-WWI treaties aimed at stability but fueled WWII via punishment & blind spots. Now Macron, Starmer & Zelenskyy plan post-ceasefire troops in Ukraine — hubs, monitoring, EU/NATO ties. Real security or diplomatic show? History warns: words need will. ⬇️
January 11, 2026 at 8:09 PM
1/5
2026 Paris Declaration echoes 1919:
post-WWI treaties aimed at stability but fueled WWII via punishment & blind spots. Now Macron, Starmer & Zelenskyy plan post-ceasefire troops in Ukraine — hubs, monitoring, EU/NATO ties. Real security or diplomatic show? History warns: words need will. ⬇️
2026 Paris Declaration echoes 1919:
post-WWI treaties aimed at stability but fueled WWII via punishment & blind spots. Now Macron, Starmer & Zelenskyy plan post-ceasefire troops in Ukraine — hubs, monitoring, EU/NATO ties. Real security or diplomatic show? History warns: words need will. ⬇️
1️⃣ ♟️ U.S. policy toward Venezuela has entered a new phase.
Years of sanctions and symbolic diplomacy failed to change power dynamics in Caracas. The latest operation signals the end of managed stalemate — and the start of a riskier strategy.
Years of sanctions and symbolic diplomacy failed to change power dynamics in Caracas. The latest operation signals the end of managed stalemate — and the start of a riskier strategy.
January 10, 2026 at 11:20 PM
1️⃣ ♟️ U.S. policy toward Venezuela has entered a new phase.
Years of sanctions and symbolic diplomacy failed to change power dynamics in Caracas. The latest operation signals the end of managed stalemate — and the start of a riskier strategy.
Years of sanctions and symbolic diplomacy failed to change power dynamics in Caracas. The latest operation signals the end of managed stalemate — and the start of a riskier strategy.
Performative solidarity on social media:
“I’m in the Netherlands/US, saw the video, and support the Iranian/Ukrainian people” creates dissonance: personal safety vs others’ suffering.
That’s performative activism — comfort empathy, no risk, an implicit “I’m safe, you’re not.”
#introduction
“I’m in the Netherlands/US, saw the video, and support the Iranian/Ukrainian people” creates dissonance: personal safety vs others’ suffering.
That’s performative activism — comfort empathy, no risk, an implicit “I’m safe, you’re not.”
#introduction
January 10, 2026 at 3:36 PM
Performative solidarity on social media:
“I’m in the Netherlands/US, saw the video, and support the Iranian/Ukrainian people” creates dissonance: personal safety vs others’ suffering.
That’s performative activism — comfort empathy, no risk, an implicit “I’m safe, you’re not.”
#introduction
“I’m in the Netherlands/US, saw the video, and support the Iranian/Ukrainian people” creates dissonance: personal safety vs others’ suffering.
That’s performative activism — comfort empathy, no risk, an implicit “I’m safe, you’re not.”
#introduction