Stephanie Shaw
@uwsteph.bsky.social
UW Softball Season Ticket Holder; Former Director of the Force of Will World Judge Program. Pharmacist in Training. #GoDawgs
AZ-06 and a California seat were called for Republicans yesterday. A California seat was called for Democrats. With five California seats + Alaska At-Large still out, Republicans lead 219-210 and have clinched the US House (although may be under a majority post-Speaker with all the elevations)
November 12, 2024 at 7:48 PM
AZ-06 and a California seat were called for Republicans yesterday. A California seat was called for Democrats. With five California seats + Alaska At-Large still out, Republicans lead 219-210 and have clinched the US House (although may be under a majority post-Speaker with all the elevations)
CO-08 was called for Republicans in the House.
Democrats need to sweep the table (AK-AL, AZ-06, and seven California seats) in order to win the House at this point.
217-209 R
Democrats need to sweep the table (AK-AL, AZ-06, and seven California seats) in order to win the House at this point.
217-209 R
November 11, 2024 at 11:31 PM
CO-08 was called for Republicans in the House.
Democrats need to sweep the table (AK-AL, AZ-06, and seven California seats) in order to win the House at this point.
217-209 R
Democrats need to sweep the table (AK-AL, AZ-06, and seven California seats) in order to win the House at this point.
217-209 R
AZ called for Gallego (Democrat).
53-47 Republicans is the final result in the Senate.
53-47 Republicans is the final result in the Senate.
November 10, 2024 at 4:16 AM
AZ called for Gallego (Democrat).
53-47 Republicans is the final result in the Senate.
53-47 Republicans is the final result in the Senate.
CA-49 called for Democrats.
10 seats remaining, 216-209 Republicans. 218 needed for control.
10 seats remaining, 216-209 Republicans. 218 needed for control.
November 10, 2024 at 2:30 AM
CA-49 called for Democrats.
10 seats remaining, 216-209 Republicans. 218 needed for control.
10 seats remaining, 216-209 Republicans. 218 needed for control.
If you're curious, here are the US House seats Decision Desk has not called yet:
AK-AL
AZ-06
CA-09
CA-13
CA-21
CA-27
CA-41
CA-45
CA-47
CA-49
CO-08
Lot of votes left from the California seats, and late votes lean Democratic. Republicans are leading in the three non-CA seats / need two for control.
AK-AL
AZ-06
CA-09
CA-13
CA-21
CA-27
CA-41
CA-45
CA-47
CA-49
CO-08
Lot of votes left from the California seats, and late votes lean Democratic. Republicans are leading in the three non-CA seats / need two for control.
November 9, 2024 at 9:15 AM
If you're curious, here are the US House seats Decision Desk has not called yet:
AK-AL
AZ-06
CA-09
CA-13
CA-21
CA-27
CA-41
CA-45
CA-47
CA-49
CO-08
Lot of votes left from the California seats, and late votes lean Democratic. Republicans are leading in the three non-CA seats / need two for control.
AK-AL
AZ-06
CA-09
CA-13
CA-21
CA-27
CA-41
CA-45
CA-47
CA-49
CO-08
Lot of votes left from the California seats, and late votes lean Democratic. Republicans are leading in the three non-CA seats / need two for control.
Democrats received great news today in the House from the West Coast. They had four seats called for them today and are at 208-216.
Republicans need to win the last AZ seat and AK for a one seat majority if they don’t hold the CA seats.
DecisionDesk: 81.8% R, 18.2% D
Republicans need to win the last AZ seat and AK for a one seat majority if they don’t hold the CA seats.
DecisionDesk: 81.8% R, 18.2% D
November 9, 2024 at 2:36 AM
Democrats received great news today in the House from the West Coast. They had four seats called for them today and are at 208-216.
Republicans need to win the last AZ seat and AK for a one seat majority if they don’t hold the CA seats.
DecisionDesk: 81.8% R, 18.2% D
Republicans need to win the last AZ seat and AK for a one seat majority if they don’t hold the CA seats.
DecisionDesk: 81.8% R, 18.2% D
Pennsylvania Senate was called for Casey’s opponent. I expect the Senate to be 53-47 R.
November 9, 2024 at 2:33 AM
Pennsylvania Senate was called for Casey’s opponent. I expect the Senate to be 53-47 R.
As for the House, Decision Desk has actually called 216 seats for Republicans, two seats away from control. That being said, Democrats' chances of winning the House -rose- due to better returns in California. Even a minor movement in California could sweep every remaining seat.
1/2
1/2
November 8, 2024 at 2:56 AM
As for the House, Decision Desk has actually called 216 seats for Republicans, two seats away from control. That being said, Democrats' chances of winning the House -rose- due to better returns in California. Even a minor movement in California could sweep every remaining seat.
1/2
1/2
Neither race has officially been called, but I do expect Casey (D) to lose PA at this point and Gallego (D) to win AZ, which would give Republicans a 53-47 Senate majority.
November 8, 2024 at 2:55 AM
Neither race has officially been called, but I do expect Casey (D) to lose PA at this point and Gallego (D) to win AZ, which would give Republicans a 53-47 Senate majority.
For the Senate, Trump successfully carried Ohio for Bernie Moreno, but Tammy Baldwin (WI) and Elissa Slotkin (MI) have won. Arizona is also looking good for Gallegos. Casey is likely headed to a recount, and Nevada does not have sufficient returns yet.
~52-54 R - 46-48 D likely result
~52-54 R - 46-48 D likely result
November 7, 2024 at 12:39 AM
For the Senate, Trump successfully carried Ohio for Bernie Moreno, but Tammy Baldwin (WI) and Elissa Slotkin (MI) have won. Arizona is also looking good for Gallegos. Casey is likely headed to a recount, and Nevada does not have sufficient returns yet.
~52-54 R - 46-48 D likely result
~52-54 R - 46-48 D likely result
Just got home from school.
House projections have been -wild- today. They started at 57% Democratic chances this morning, then huge swings across the board caused the House to go as far as ~95% Republican chances, and now Democratic gains have lowered it to 88% Republican chance for control.
House projections have been -wild- today. They started at 57% Democratic chances this morning, then huge swings across the board caused the House to go as far as ~95% Republican chances, and now Democratic gains have lowered it to 88% Republican chance for control.
November 7, 2024 at 12:36 AM
Just got home from school.
House projections have been -wild- today. They started at 57% Democratic chances this morning, then huge swings across the board caused the House to go as far as ~95% Republican chances, and now Democratic gains have lowered it to 88% Republican chance for control.
House projections have been -wild- today. They started at 57% Democratic chances this morning, then huge swings across the board caused the House to go as far as ~95% Republican chances, and now Democratic gains have lowered it to 88% Republican chance for control.
Alright I'm headed to bed, but the NY Times has just pushed Trump's % over 90%. We are likely facing a Democratic House, Republican Senate (possibly by up to 5 seats), and Donald Trump as President.
November 6, 2024 at 5:21 AM
Alright I'm headed to bed, but the NY Times has just pushed Trump's % over 90%. We are likely facing a Democratic House, Republican Senate (possibly by up to 5 seats), and Donald Trump as President.
Hawaii Senate called for Democrats.
51-43 R
51-43 R
November 6, 2024 at 5:03 AM
Hawaii Senate called for Democrats.
51-43 R
51-43 R
Hawaii (4) called for Harris.
232-216 Trump.
232-216 Trump.
November 6, 2024 at 5:02 AM
Hawaii (4) called for Harris.
232-216 Trump.
232-216 Trump.
NE-02 (1) called for Harris.
232-212 Trump.
232-212 Trump.
November 6, 2024 at 4:53 AM
NE-02 (1) called for Harris.
232-212 Trump.
232-212 Trump.
Nebraska - 2 called for Fischer (R). Republicans avoid a costly loss and have clinched the Senate.
51-42 R
51-42 R
November 6, 2024 at 4:51 AM
Nebraska - 2 called for Fischer (R). Republicans avoid a costly loss and have clinched the Senate.
51-42 R
51-42 R
Virginia (13) called for Harris.
232-211 Trump.
232-211 Trump.
November 6, 2024 at 4:47 AM
Virginia (13) called for Harris.
232-211 Trump.
232-211 Trump.
In better news, the House looks great for Democrats. They will likely control one chamber of Congress. As for the Senate, they will likely lose Montana but have three additional rough races they could lose. I wouldn't be surprised if they lose 2-3 of them. Nebraska is still unclear.
November 6, 2024 at 4:45 AM
In better news, the House looks great for Democrats. They will likely control one chamber of Congress. As for the Senate, they will likely lose Montana but have three additional rough races they could lose. I wouldn't be surprised if they lose 2-3 of them. Nebraska is still unclear.
I do not think it mathematically feasible for Harris to win Pennsylvania anymore - she would likely need to win close to 100% of this mail-in ballot dump at midnight EST.
Headed to bed for an exam right after the ballot dump, but I think the election will be called for Trump within an hour.
Headed to bed for an exam right after the ballot dump, but I think the election will be called for Trump within an hour.
November 6, 2024 at 4:44 AM
I do not think it mathematically feasible for Harris to win Pennsylvania anymore - she would likely need to win close to 100% of this mail-in ballot dump at midnight EST.
Headed to bed for an exam right after the ballot dump, but I think the election will be called for Trump within an hour.
Headed to bed for an exam right after the ballot dump, but I think the election will be called for Trump within an hour.
New Mexico (5) called for Harris.
232-198 Trump.
232-198 Trump.
November 6, 2024 at 4:43 AM
New Mexico (5) called for Harris.
232-198 Trump.
232-198 Trump.
North Carolina (16) called for Trump by the AP.
232-193 Trump.
232-193 Trump.
November 6, 2024 at 4:24 AM
North Carolina (16) called for Trump by the AP.
232-193 Trump.
232-193 Trump.
Bernie Moreno (R) wins the Senate race and flips a second seat for republicans.
50-42 R
50-42 R
November 6, 2024 at 4:09 AM
Bernie Moreno (R) wins the Senate race and flips a second seat for republicans.
50-42 R
50-42 R
Fox News projects Oregon (8) and Washington (12) for Harris.
216-193 Trump.
216-193 Trump.
November 6, 2024 at 4:03 AM
Fox News projects Oregon (8) and Washington (12) for Harris.
216-193 Trump.
216-193 Trump.
Washington and California Senate seats called for Democrats.
49-42 R
49-42 R
November 6, 2024 at 4:01 AM
Washington and California Senate seats called for Democrats.
49-42 R
49-42 R
California (54) called for Harris and Idaho (4) called for Trump.
216-173 Trump.
216-173 Trump.
November 6, 2024 at 4:01 AM
California (54) called for Harris and Idaho (4) called for Trump.
216-173 Trump.
216-173 Trump.