John V. Kane
@uptonorwell.bsky.social
Political Scientist. Professor at NYU’s Center for Global Affairs. Experiments, data analysis, guitar, drums, fan of comedy. Make guides for @statacorp.bsky.social users. Two boys and exhausted all the time. More at www.johnvkane.com
Pinned
John V. Kane
@uptonorwell.bsky.social
· Feb 20
More than meets the ITT: A guide for anticipating and investigating nonsignificant results in survey experiments | Journal of Experimental Political Science | Cambridge Core
More than meets the ITT: A guide for anticipating and investigating nonsignificant results in survey experiments
cup.org
🚨It's finally out AND #OpenAccess!!!
Do you do survey experiments? This article is for you! 7 things that increase the risk of null/non-significant results & how to detect/prevent them. It's one of my fav things I've ever written so I hope you enjoy ☺️ polisky
cup.org/3OQhKNv
Do you do survey experiments? This article is for you! 7 things that increase the risk of null/non-significant results & how to detect/prevent them. It's one of my fav things I've ever written so I hope you enjoy ☺️ polisky
cup.org/3OQhKNv
Always amazed how, each semester, teaching data analysis inevitably teaches me something new.
This week I learned that spatially correlated residuals in FE models (w/ data from Bailey's great book) probably doesn't require clustering SEs. Thx to @nickchk.com's AMAZING website--what a resource! 🙏
This week I learned that spatially correlated residuals in FE models (w/ data from Bailey's great book) probably doesn't require clustering SEs. Thx to @nickchk.com's AMAZING website--what a resource! 🙏
November 20, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Always amazed how, each semester, teaching data analysis inevitably teaches me something new.
This week I learned that spatially correlated residuals in FE models (w/ data from Bailey's great book) probably doesn't require clustering SEs. Thx to @nickchk.com's AMAZING website--what a resource! 🙏
This week I learned that spatially correlated residuals in FE models (w/ data from Bailey's great book) probably doesn't require clustering SEs. Thx to @nickchk.com's AMAZING website--what a resource! 🙏
I think a lot about how quant & qual methods relate/differ.
At its best, qual research feels like shining a huge light inside the black box that quant folks often ignore. 👍
At its worst, qual research feels like a scatterplot for which the researcher gets to choose which dots to show. 😬
At its best, qual research feels like shining a huge light inside the black box that quant folks often ignore. 👍
At its worst, qual research feels like a scatterplot for which the researcher gets to choose which dots to show. 😬
November 12, 2025 at 9:54 PM
I think a lot about how quant & qual methods relate/differ.
At its best, qual research feels like shining a huge light inside the black box that quant folks often ignore. 👍
At its worst, qual research feels like a scatterplot for which the researcher gets to choose which dots to show. 😬
At its best, qual research feels like shining a huge light inside the black box that quant folks often ignore. 👍
At its worst, qual research feels like a scatterplot for which the researcher gets to choose which dots to show. 😬
Reposted by John V. Kane
Join us tomorrow as we repeat ourselves.
Join us as we repeat ourselves tomorrow.
Tomorrow, we repeat ourselves. Join us!
Join us as we repeat ourselves tomorrow.
Tomorrow, we repeat ourselves. Join us!
November 10, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Join us tomorrow as we repeat ourselves.
Join us as we repeat ourselves tomorrow.
Tomorrow, we repeat ourselves. Join us!
Join us as we repeat ourselves tomorrow.
Tomorrow, we repeat ourselves. Join us!
Reposted by John V. Kane
Wrote up a little intervention post/explanation for my class about why using LLMs for trying to learn programming (as first time learners!) is bad and detrimental datavizf25.classes.andrewheiss.com/news/2025-11...
November 2, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Wrote up a little intervention post/explanation for my class about why using LLMs for trying to learn programming (as first time learners!) is bad and detrimental datavizf25.classes.andrewheiss.com/news/2025-11...
Reposted by John V. Kane
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
2016-2020-2024-panel-merged-study - ANES | American National Election Studies
electionstudies.org
November 1, 2025 at 8:47 PM
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
Halloween fun fact 🎃: "Skeleton" has its own IMDB page. 💀
In fact, it stars in one of my favorite horror movies as a kid: House on Haunted Hill (1959 version). Not necessarily the best performance in the film, but also not bad given that it lacks a central nervous system.
In fact, it stars in one of my favorite horror movies as a kid: House on Haunted Hill (1959 version). Not necessarily the best performance in the film, but also not bad given that it lacks a central nervous system.
October 31, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Halloween fun fact 🎃: "Skeleton" has its own IMDB page. 💀
In fact, it stars in one of my favorite horror movies as a kid: House on Haunted Hill (1959 version). Not necessarily the best performance in the film, but also not bad given that it lacks a central nervous system.
In fact, it stars in one of my favorite horror movies as a kid: House on Haunted Hill (1959 version). Not necessarily the best performance in the film, but also not bad given that it lacks a central nervous system.
🚨 I created a new guide on how to make nice dot charts. These can be really informative, yet remain weirdly underutilized. The examples are with @statacorp.bsky.social but the logic applies to all
software. Link in thread. 👇
Made it mostly for my students but hope you find it useful, too! 😁
software. Link in thread. 👇
Made it mostly for my students but hope you find it useful, too! 😁
October 15, 2025 at 9:36 PM
🚨 I created a new guide on how to make nice dot charts. These can be really informative, yet remain weirdly underutilized. The examples are with @statacorp.bsky.social but the logic applies to all
software. Link in thread. 👇
Made it mostly for my students but hope you find it useful, too! 😁
software. Link in thread. 👇
Made it mostly for my students but hope you find it useful, too! 😁
A short-and-sweet guide to developing research questions published in @nature.com.
Lots of good advice here 👍
Lots of good advice here 👍
October 8, 2025 at 3:35 PM
A short-and-sweet guide to developing research questions published in @nature.com.
Lots of good advice here 👍
Lots of good advice here 👍
Are you or one of your students considering doing a Ph.D. in a social science? I've spent a lot of time talking about this w/ students & finally wrote something up.
IMO, there are only 3 good reasons to do it. One of them needs to be true--otherwise, don't.
medium.com/the-quantast...
IMO, there are only 3 good reasons to do it. One of them needs to be true--otherwise, don't.
medium.com/the-quantast...
The Only Three Reasons to Do a Ph.D. in the Social Sciences
If none are true, don’t do it.
medium.com
September 24, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Are you or one of your students considering doing a Ph.D. in a social science? I've spent a lot of time talking about this w/ students & finally wrote something up.
IMO, there are only 3 good reasons to do it. One of them needs to be true--otherwise, don't.
medium.com/the-quantast...
IMO, there are only 3 good reasons to do it. One of them needs to be true--otherwise, don't.
medium.com/the-quantast...
🚨 Very flattered to have a piece, w/ the terrific
@miacosta.bsky.social, in the new @apsa.bsky.social Experiments Newsletter!
In it, we offer some thoughts on how to think about how "realistic" experimental results are. Might be useful for students 😁
connect.apsanet.org/s42/newslett...
@miacosta.bsky.social, in the new @apsa.bsky.social Experiments Newsletter!
In it, we offer some thoughts on how to think about how "realistic" experimental results are. Might be useful for students 😁
connect.apsanet.org/s42/newslett...
Newsletter: Main Page
connect.apsanet.org
August 28, 2025 at 3:58 PM
🚨 Very flattered to have a piece, w/ the terrific
@miacosta.bsky.social, in the new @apsa.bsky.social Experiments Newsletter!
In it, we offer some thoughts on how to think about how "realistic" experimental results are. Might be useful for students 😁
connect.apsanet.org/s42/newslett...
@miacosta.bsky.social, in the new @apsa.bsky.social Experiments Newsletter!
In it, we offer some thoughts on how to think about how "realistic" experimental results are. Might be useful for students 😁
connect.apsanet.org/s42/newslett...
Reposted by John V. Kane
If you use Stata and you want to make nice coefficient plots, this article by @uptonorwell.bsky.social is really fantastic!
medium.com/the-stata-ga...
medium.com/the-stata-ga...
Making Regression Coefficient Plots in Stata
Traditionally, researchers reported results of regression analyses using tables. A more visually appealing way of presenting these results is by using a coefficient plot. Unlike a typical scatterplot…
medium.com
August 24, 2025 at 2:10 PM
If you use Stata and you want to make nice coefficient plots, this article by @uptonorwell.bsky.social is really fantastic!
medium.com/the-stata-ga...
medium.com/the-stata-ga...
Just submitted book revisions 🥳 and wanted to write something a little more "fun."
I've been wanting to write this one for a long time and just posted it on Medium (no paywall 👍). For the profs out there, it might serve as a useful class reading (?). Hope you enjoy!
medium.com/@jvk221/3-st...
I've been wanting to write this one for a long time and just posted it on Medium (no paywall 👍). For the profs out there, it might serve as a useful class reading (?). Hope you enjoy!
medium.com/@jvk221/3-st...
3 Statistical Problems with Fate
We’ve all thought about whether particular events in our lives might have been due to Fate. Here are 3 statistical problems with doing that.
medium.com
August 5, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Just submitted book revisions 🥳 and wanted to write something a little more "fun."
I've been wanting to write this one for a long time and just posted it on Medium (no paywall 👍). For the profs out there, it might serve as a useful class reading (?). Hope you enjoy!
medium.com/@jvk221/3-st...
I've been wanting to write this one for a long time and just posted it on Medium (no paywall 👍). For the profs out there, it might serve as a useful class reading (?). Hope you enjoy!
medium.com/@jvk221/3-st...
Inflation was a big issue--maybe even *the* issue--in 2024.
But do citizens understand how to interpret inflation rates?
Using some new data from @verasight.bsky.social, the answer seems to be largely: no.
On top of that, Republicans show significantly less understanding than Democrats.
But do citizens understand how to interpret inflation rates?
Using some new data from @verasight.bsky.social, the answer seems to be largely: no.
On top of that, Republicans show significantly less understanding than Democrats.
July 28, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Inflation was a big issue--maybe even *the* issue--in 2024.
But do citizens understand how to interpret inflation rates?
Using some new data from @verasight.bsky.social, the answer seems to be largely: no.
On top of that, Republicans show significantly less understanding than Democrats.
But do citizens understand how to interpret inflation rates?
Using some new data from @verasight.bsky.social, the answer seems to be largely: no.
On top of that, Republicans show significantly less understanding than Democrats.
Truly wild to see that this just hit 300 citations on GS 🤯
It's a good lesson for PhD students--this started as a short homework assignment for a class on causal inference. At first I just wanted to know if MC placement matters. But over time, it turned into much more & led to several more papers.
It's a good lesson for PhD students--this started as a short homework assignment for a class on causal inference. At first I just wanted to know if MC placement matters. But over time, it turned into much more & led to several more papers.
July 21, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Truly wild to see that this just hit 300 citations on GS 🤯
It's a good lesson for PhD students--this started as a short homework assignment for a class on causal inference. At first I just wanted to know if MC placement matters. But over time, it turned into much more & led to several more papers.
It's a good lesson for PhD students--this started as a short homework assignment for a class on causal inference. At first I just wanted to know if MC placement matters. But over time, it turned into much more & led to several more papers.
My article on incumbency advantage in presidential elections is now out w/ issue and page numbers 🥳
Key finding: Being an incumbent president comes w/ inherent electoral advantages after 1 term. After 2 terms, a party is not inherently *dis*advantaged--just no more incumbency advantage.
Key finding: Being an incumbent president comes w/ inherent electoral advantages after 1 term. After 2 terms, a party is not inherently *dis*advantaged--just no more incumbency advantage.
July 14, 2025 at 6:25 PM
My article on incumbency advantage in presidential elections is now out w/ issue and page numbers 🥳
Key finding: Being an incumbent president comes w/ inherent electoral advantages after 1 term. After 2 terms, a party is not inherently *dis*advantaged--just no more incumbency advantage.
Key finding: Being an incumbent president comes w/ inherent electoral advantages after 1 term. After 2 terms, a party is not inherently *dis*advantaged--just no more incumbency advantage.
A look at partisanship in the U.S. right now--what partisans will tolerate, what they won't, and where the parties differ.
(From an ongoing project with @iganson.bsky.social; n = ~1,100; graph made in @statacorp.bsky.social 😊)
(From an ongoing project with @iganson.bsky.social; n = ~1,100; graph made in @statacorp.bsky.social 😊)
June 18, 2025 at 4:35 PM
A look at partisanship in the U.S. right now--what partisans will tolerate, what they won't, and where the parties differ.
(From an ongoing project with @iganson.bsky.social; n = ~1,100; graph made in @statacorp.bsky.social 😊)
(From an ongoing project with @iganson.bsky.social; n = ~1,100; graph made in @statacorp.bsky.social 😊)
Hard to express what a relief it is to have just submitted the first complete draft of my book manuscript to @ucpress.bsky.social 😮💨🥳
5+ years in the making.
249 pages.
82,000 words.
0 ChatGPT. 😉
A million thanks to all those who gave me guidance and inspired me along the way! 🙏
5+ years in the making.
249 pages.
82,000 words.
0 ChatGPT. 😉
A million thanks to all those who gave me guidance and inspired me along the way! 🙏
June 3, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Hard to express what a relief it is to have just submitted the first complete draft of my book manuscript to @ucpress.bsky.social 😮💨🥳
5+ years in the making.
249 pages.
82,000 words.
0 ChatGPT. 😉
A million thanks to all those who gave me guidance and inspired me along the way! 🙏
5+ years in the making.
249 pages.
82,000 words.
0 ChatGPT. 😉
A million thanks to all those who gave me guidance and inspired me along the way! 🙏
Reposted by John V. Kane
Rs forgetting about the deficit is a classic case of what Kane & Anson call "deficit attention disorder." Their classic article: link.springer.com/article/10.1... @uptonorwell.bsky.social @iganson.bsky.social
‘Nobody’s talking about it’: Republicans’ incredible shrinking deficit talk
Only a few fiscal hawks raised debt worries, before almost all of them fell in line on the tax and spending megabill.
www.semafor.com
May 23, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Rs forgetting about the deficit is a classic case of what Kane & Anson call "deficit attention disorder." Their classic article: link.springer.com/article/10.1... @uptonorwell.bsky.social @iganson.bsky.social
For those currently writing and/or grading papers, always good to keep this distinction in mind
April 26, 2025 at 5:01 PM
For those currently writing and/or grading papers, always good to keep this distinction in mind
Do most people understand how inflation works? That drops in the inflation rate don't mean drops in prices? 🤔
No. And misunderstanding is significantly associated with vote choice in 2024.
Thanks to @verasight.bsky.social and @peterenns.bsky.social
for letting me field this question 🙏
No. And misunderstanding is significantly associated with vote choice in 2024.
Thanks to @verasight.bsky.social and @peterenns.bsky.social
for letting me field this question 🙏
April 22, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Do most people understand how inflation works? That drops in the inflation rate don't mean drops in prices? 🤔
No. And misunderstanding is significantly associated with vote choice in 2024.
Thanks to @verasight.bsky.social and @peterenns.bsky.social
for letting me field this question 🙏
No. And misunderstanding is significantly associated with vote choice in 2024.
Thanks to @verasight.bsky.social and @peterenns.bsky.social
for letting me field this question 🙏
Had a great time presenting in @stecula.bsky.social 's PhD class on null results in experiments. Thank you again, Dom!
If anyone who teaches experiments would like me to present for a course in the Fall, just email or DM me--happy to do it! 😁
If anyone who teaches experiments would like me to present for a course in the Fall, just email or DM me--happy to do it! 😁
April 21, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Had a great time presenting in @stecula.bsky.social 's PhD class on null results in experiments. Thank you again, Dom!
If anyone who teaches experiments would like me to present for a course in the Fall, just email or DM me--happy to do it! 😁
If anyone who teaches experiments would like me to present for a course in the Fall, just email or DM me--happy to do it! 😁
Had a great time presenting on null / non-significant results in survey experiments to Samara Klar's Ph.D. class at University of Arizona! 😁
🚨If you teach a course on experiments in the Fall and would like me to present, feel free to email/DM me--I'd be happy to do it!
polisky
🚨If you teach a course on experiments in the Fall and would like me to present, feel free to email/DM me--I'd be happy to do it!
polisky
April 10, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Had a great time presenting on null / non-significant results in survey experiments to Samara Klar's Ph.D. class at University of Arizona! 😁
🚨If you teach a course on experiments in the Fall and would like me to present, feel free to email/DM me--I'd be happy to do it!
polisky
🚨If you teach a course on experiments in the Fall and would like me to present, feel free to email/DM me--I'd be happy to do it!
polisky
Reposted by John V. Kane
🚨New WP! What is political bias in its most extreme form? What factors are associated with it? And how can it be reduced?
At next week's @MPSAnet conf., @iganson.bsky.social & I will present our paper "Rejoining the Cult" that offers answers these questions: go.shr.lc/4j9bg9j 🧵
At next week's @MPSAnet conf., @iganson.bsky.social & I will present our paper "Rejoining the Cult" that offers answers these questions: go.shr.lc/4j9bg9j 🧵
March 28, 2025 at 3:07 PM
🚨New WP! What is political bias in its most extreme form? What factors are associated with it? And how can it be reduced?
At next week's @MPSAnet conf., @iganson.bsky.social & I will present our paper "Rejoining the Cult" that offers answers these questions: go.shr.lc/4j9bg9j 🧵
At next week's @MPSAnet conf., @iganson.bsky.social & I will present our paper "Rejoining the Cult" that offers answers these questions: go.shr.lc/4j9bg9j 🧵
Reposted by John V. Kane
Happy to share a new working paper with @uptonorwell.bsky.social! The subject of partisan bias is only increasing in its importance, and in this paper we conceptually distinguish "blatant bias:" i.e., nothing can dissuade a partisan's support for a leader. preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/...
Rejoining the Cult: Understanding and Reducing Blatant Political Bias
Partisan bias poses serious challenges for democracies. Yet scholars rarely study the determinants of partisan bias directly. Further, despite individual-level bias existing in degrees, extant scholar...
preprints.apsanet.org
March 31, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Happy to share a new working paper with @uptonorwell.bsky.social! The subject of partisan bias is only increasing in its importance, and in this paper we conceptually distinguish "blatant bias:" i.e., nothing can dissuade a partisan's support for a leader. preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/...
🚨New WP! What is political bias in its most extreme form? What factors are associated with it? And how can it be reduced?
At next week's @MPSAnet conf., @iganson.bsky.social & I will present our paper "Rejoining the Cult" that offers answers these questions: go.shr.lc/4j9bg9j 🧵
At next week's @MPSAnet conf., @iganson.bsky.social & I will present our paper "Rejoining the Cult" that offers answers these questions: go.shr.lc/4j9bg9j 🧵
March 28, 2025 at 3:07 PM
🚨New WP! What is political bias in its most extreme form? What factors are associated with it? And how can it be reduced?
At next week's @MPSAnet conf., @iganson.bsky.social & I will present our paper "Rejoining the Cult" that offers answers these questions: go.shr.lc/4j9bg9j 🧵
At next week's @MPSAnet conf., @iganson.bsky.social & I will present our paper "Rejoining the Cult" that offers answers these questions: go.shr.lc/4j9bg9j 🧵