Conclusions
- AD prize structure is less top-heavy
- AD EV is roughly the same if you assume that packs are full value
- YMMV depending on how you value prize boxes, tax implications, Arena packs, time, etc.

4/x

EV under previous prize structure @ 72% WR: $25
EV under new prize structure @ 72% WR: $25

72% used as the win rate based on the grindiest, trophiest Arena Direct players tracked on 17L

3/x

EV under previous prize structure @ 60% WR: -$2.27
EV under new prize structure @60% WR: -$1.19

2/x

imo chance they'll incorrectly ban Malevolent Rumble instead of Underworld Breach, or in conjunction with

Here's a helpful token for Taigam players to print out @hanweirgarrison.bsky.social

Fact or Fiction is in this cube surely

Looks like almost all the UIDs happened on day 1, with several R9 IDs at 5-1-2 tables. The second UID is the one that people should be working to combat, but it is also the most likely to happen since they're in the UID bracket.

Cards to ban in modern
Ugin's Labyrinth - fast mana
Orcish Bowmasters - oppresses X/1s and draw spells
Gemstone Caverns - doesn't create any worthwhile patterns, confused for mana acceleration by many players
10/x

Safe modern unbans
Dig Through Time - 2 mana > 1 mana. It's'n't Treasure Cruise
Fury - died for Grief's sins
Umezawa's Jitte - like global warming, this isn't as scary to people like it was a generation ago
9/x

Psychic Frog and Vexing Bauble banned in Legacy
Good. I don't play Legacy much, but these cards are warping
I don't think Legacy will ever reach the stable state of yesteryear ever again. Or modern, for that matter
8/x

Splinter Twin unbanned in Modern
Concerning. This is the panic button unban
The attendance numbers must have been obscenely bad for WotC to make this move
7/x

Faithless Looting unbanned in Modern
Good. Died for Hogaak's sins. Powerful enabler but that's fine in Modern
We have Endurance, Emperor of Bones, other new GY hate since it left
6/x

Green Sun's Zenith unbanned in Modern
Good? Haven't played with it, but incentivizes toolboxing and interaction
Green has been noticeably absent from Modern since MH3 (Tron doesn't count)
5/x

Mox Opal unbanned in Modern
Bad. Dangerous mana accelerant, though we now have hate like Force of Vigor, Meltdown
More concerning are the implications. This reverses the removing of fast mana from modern
Opal replaces TOR as the most expensive card in the format and desperately needs a reprint

Amped Raptor banned in Modern

Good. Cheating on mana is fundamentally the most broken thing in Magic
But the designers are willing to push the limits on free spells, trying to balance effects on the other side of the cast
Energy probably still high tiered
3/x

The One Ring banned in Modern

Good. Either takes over the game or does nothing. No in between unless both players have TOR
Raw power level is simply too high, and the gameplay isn't actually engaging
2/x

Jegantha banned in Pioneer & Modern

Good. Companions were a mistake. One of the worst in all Magic history
Instead of creating fun and interesting deckbuilding they incentivized homogenization
+ annoying tournament policy implications
Just scrap Companion like Stickers
1/x

Dove into this:
R10 2 9-0s, 18 8-1s. T1 IDs
R11 2 9-0-1s, 9 9-1s. Not a clean cut
9-0s shouldn't have ID'd imo, or at least understood that they were creating unsafe R11 IDs aka not a clean cut
R11 Prisoner's dilemma on T2/T3
+ Very_D got rekt on OMW in R11, opponents racked up 5 losses + ID