Another important takeaway on tipping points of single systems:

These jumps just overrun thresholds...

Main current question is in how far the upper oceans temperatures and SST patterns can couple with the cloud feedback forming a vicious cycle?

In 2023 this seemed to have happened

One study sees the early warning of a tipping point between upper ocean and atmosphere

Circulations important too

The last discussion on the mechanics tells us that these jumps will continue to happen, driven by ocean heat, cloud cover feedbacks, and various other systems contributing increasingly to these jumps

So the trillion dollar question is when will the next one happen?

Track OHC and you will know...

There exist three fundamentally different discussions on the recent temp. development: one statistical discussion, one model based, and one on the mechanics

The former two are irrelevant e.g. current models can't simulate SOx as they can not simulate aerosol driven evaporation of clouds

That's the issue: Are these jumps an outcome of ENSO driven natural variability - random noise - or are they forced variability driven by ocean heat uptake rates?

If it's the later we are fucked if recent GHG increases are to be taken seriously...

SOx "just" increases the baseline...

It's SOx, so nothing to worry, irony out!

Just checked it, could also be you...

Question: the message "Post blocked" means I'm blocked?

If so whose account is it?

Just curios...

That's the reason I posted theses studies of aerosol drying of clouds - MHWs is high pressure, low cloud cover which then are made more susceptible by aerosols to be dried out

This effect is based on observations, not simulated by models, it would mean SOx supports MHWs to some extent - net effect?

what you did - post is blocked :D

At least for me...

The thing is, that do not only enter the phase of masked warming, but the feedback driven phase

The moment we come near or cross 2°C of warming this system goes AMOC ;)

Just non-linear marine heatwave expansion its a clusterfuck

I think scientists inside the system have no time to realize all these recent changes that happen now in the system

And the more you observe and what is discussed of what is changing the more worrisome it becomes...

Understood two new principles:

1: The faster you warm the climate the larger the areas affected by new record events at the same time.

2: The faster you warm the climate the more feedbacks happen at once as slow feedbacks become faster feedbacks...

They had massive gradients the last years on the continents

It seems that these massive gradients also occur now more often in the SH,as the circulation gets as fucked up as in the NH

Antarctic heatwaves the last years and see ice losses are strong indications that this should happen, as they are as much a result as a cause of zonal circulation disturbances

Also a nice gradient

Heroes of our time!

When anti-fascism is re-framed as antisemitism we live in really crazy times!

Jews are NOT Nethanyahu, and are as easily manipulated by right wing fascist as everywhere else, sad as it is!

Thou, one thing all Jews should understand: the fascists in Israel are destroying Israels future to the same extent they erase GAZA...

To love Israel means: FUCK YOU NETHANYAHU!