90-day avg VP200 anomalies since April show how forcing aloft has evolved from spring into summer.

🟢 Rising motion over west Africa has waned

🟤 Sinking motion has increased over West IO (-IOD)

🟢 Rising has increased over maritime continent (-ENSO)

🟤 Sinking has increased over the Amazon

TS #Chantal has gradually deepened since the last recon flight yesterday despite being quite lopsided due to SW wind shear.

While the west side is barren, the eastern side will be capable of gusty winds in excess of 50 mph and heavy rainfall as it moves into the Carolinas on Sunday.

#Invest92L continues to gradually organize and AF recon has identified a closed surface center on the west edge of the deep convection.

A subtropical or tropical cyclone is forming, and some strengthening could occur before SE US landfall this weekend.

Next 🌀 name is Chantal.

Convection continues to become more concentrated and organized on the tail-end of a decaying front, and a broad low is developing as a result.

Despite SW shear, dry air, and limited time over water, a TC could develop over the weekend before impacting the SE US with heavy rain and gusty winds.

Global models are gradually coming into better agreement that another shorter-lived TC could develop from the tail-end of a stalling front off the SE CONUS this weekend.

Moderate SW wind shear, dry air, and land interaction will be impediments to development/strengthening of a TC.

In Bay of Campeche fashion, the curvature of the coast is enhancing sfc vorticity & a small low is developing near the coast under the deep convection.

This weak low will rotate up the wave axis, paralleling the Veracruz coast, buying itself time for TCG.

Next 🌀 name is Barry.

The Atlantic is on the verge of its quietest start since 2014 with 0 storms thus far.

About the only chance for development the next 7 days comes from this lingering trough SE of Bermuda.

Models are latching onto a weak low developing from this convection, but it will struggle to be well-defined.

It appears the more active East Pacific has won the CAG tug of war with the Caribbean and a TC will consolidate near Central America in the coming days.

📈 There are some hints of rapid intensification being possible if a more compact TC can form before landfall in Mexico.

The next 🌀 name is Erick.

East Pacific tropics have been active in response to upward motion associated with a CCKW.

This CCKW will soon cross into the Caribbean where it will enhance gyre activity near Central America.

Land interaction will likely impede TC formation, but it remains possible a brief TC forms in 5-7 days.

🌀 Man-yi in the West Pacific is well on its way to becoming the 3rd Super Typhoon (4th typhoon in total) to strike the Philippines in less than 10 days.

Quite uncommon to see such a well choreographed train of typhoons that track over nearly the same area.

🚂🌀 West Pacific Typhoon Train

Yet another typhoon is gathering strength in the WPAC and aiming toward Luzon, Philippines. Man-yi is forecast to be the 4th typhoon in just 10 days to impact the area.

Super Typhoon Yinxing 11/7
Typhoon Toraji 11/11
Super Typhoon Usagi 11/14