Michael Bailey
@trulymably.bsky.social
I would like to take the course!
October 31, 2025 at 8:40 PM
I would like to take the course!
Reposted by Michael Bailey
7. The media industry is both unwilling and unable to cover this level of corruption rigorously. Treating Trump’s corruption scandals like those of previous presidents would make outlets appear “biased” and strain the resources of an industry that has been contracting over the past 25 years.
October 27, 2025 at 12:36 PM
7. The media industry is both unwilling and unable to cover this level of corruption rigorously. Treating Trump’s corruption scandals like those of previous presidents would make outlets appear “biased” and strain the resources of an industry that has been contracting over the past 25 years.
Such is the life in social science! My specification is pretty bog standard - and I sure don’t love the measure (Adam doesn’t either I suspect)
October 27, 2025 at 1:05 PM
Such is the life in social science! My specification is pretty bog standard - and I sure don’t love the measure (Adam doesn’t either I suspect)
Candidate ideology helps! It is not a cure-all - party label matters a ton! But candidate ideology helps roughly as much as incumbency (and that's even using the NYTimes' highly imperfect measure). Here's my take:
open.substack.com/pub/michaela...
open.substack.com/pub/michaela...
October 27, 2025 at 1:41 AM
The measures predict congressional voting quite well (that’s what they’re built to do btw)
October 21, 2025 at 2:02 AM
The measures predict congressional voting quite well (that’s what they’re built to do btw)
Here’s the full case for moderate effect of moderation
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Lmk what you think
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Lmk what you think
Ideological Moderation and Success in U.S. Elections, 2020-2022 *
Understanding how candidate ideology affects elections is crucial to understanding representation. We assess the influence of ideological positioning on electio
papers.ssrn.com
October 21, 2025 at 1:19 AM
Here’s the full case for moderate effect of moderation
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Lmk what you think
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Lmk what you think
Aren’t you saying the same thing as the NYT? That purple voters don’t like progressive candidates?
October 21, 2025 at 1:16 AM
Aren’t you saying the same thing as the NYT? That purple voters don’t like progressive candidates?
It’s in the Constitution ! Or are you not an originalist? Or was it in the Declaration of independence where they called out King George for not protecting pedophiles?
October 19, 2025 at 2:45 PM
It’s in the Constitution ! Or are you not an originalist? Or was it in the Declaration of independence where they called out King George for not protecting pedophiles?
Thanks Kevin. I might be more optimistic but still realistic- lots of work to be done !
June 18, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Thanks Kevin. I might be more optimistic but still realistic- lots of work to be done !
And we should bear in mind difference between growing electorate and shrinking it. Bonica et al argue room for Dems to increase by growing. Whatever one thinks about that, everyone agrees Dems benefit from shrinking electorate in midterm (right?) Is it really case that Dems win in both directions?
April 12, 2025 at 2:20 PM
And we should bear in mind difference between growing electorate and shrinking it. Bonica et al argue room for Dems to increase by growing. Whatever one thinks about that, everyone agrees Dems benefit from shrinking electorate in midterm (right?) Is it really case that Dems win in both directions?