Mauer getting elected in the 1st year on a more crowded ballot bodes well for him.

@jayjaffe.bsky.social what are the odds of you being swayed on Wright in the future?

He missed by 35 votes last year. He's gotten 6 so far with an estimated 22% of ballots revealed. One thing to note is that there are less opportunities for him to gain w/ public ballots since he performs better on them. Also his performance w/ new voters & the huge spike in them this year will help

If you read the article he explains the selection. He views him as a pioneer candidate, which does have some precedence.

For reference here's some benchmarks from last year:

Ballot #40 - 12/24
Ballot #50 - 12/26
Ballot #75 - 12/31
Ballot # 100 - 01/04
Ballot # 125- 01/10
Ballot # 150- 01/14
Ballot # 175 - 01/19
Ballot # 200 - 01/21
Ballot # 216 - 01/21 (216 total before announcement)

It always seems like that but we got ballot #30 on Dec. 19th last year. There's always a big flurry at the end of Dec. and the week before the announcement.

When posting his ballot he did mention that dropping Manny was solely strategic.

Everyone wondering why he dropped Utley, it's cuz he's clearly safe from falling off but also has zero shot to make it this year. The others are all more in danger of not getting 5%. This was just a strategic move. The Hall needs to get rid of the silly, arbitrary restrictions on voting.