Trevor Tombe
@trevortombe.bsky.social
Professor of Economics, University of Calgary | Director, Fiscal/Econ Policy, The School of Public Policy | Alum U of T & SFU | Inflation, carbon taxes, equalization, internal trade, R, and more! | 💻 📊 📝 🍻
Strong jobs report from StatCan this morning. Employment rose 54k in November, and unemployment fell to 6.5%, down 0.6 points from its peak.
More details here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon
More details here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon
December 5, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Strong jobs report from StatCan this morning. Employment rose 54k in November, and unemployment fell to 6.5%, down 0.6 points from its peak.
More details here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon
More details here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon
Today's data: GDP growth for the third quarter of 2025. Positive growth of 0.6% compared to Q2 (annualized rate of 2.6%). A strong report overall, headline growth beat expectations.
Details from StatCan here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon
Details from StatCan here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon
November 28, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Today's data: GDP growth for the third quarter of 2025. Positive growth of 0.6% compared to Q2 (annualized rate of 2.6%). A strong report overall, headline growth beat expectations.
Details from StatCan here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon
Details from StatCan here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon
Today's data: inflation 📈 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu...
Consumer prices rose 2.2% since October 2024. But since it matters what you buy, experiences vary. Lower-income, single renters faced highest increases. Relevant to understand affordability concerns. #cdnecon #cdnpoli
Consumer prices rose 2.2% since October 2024. But since it matters what you buy, experiences vary. Lower-income, single renters faced highest increases. Relevant to understand affordability concerns. #cdnecon #cdnpoli
November 17, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Today's data: inflation 📈 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu...
Consumer prices rose 2.2% since October 2024. But since it matters what you buy, experiences vary. Lower-income, single renters faced highest increases. Relevant to understand affordability concerns. #cdnecon #cdnpoli
Consumer prices rose 2.2% since October 2024. But since it matters what you buy, experiences vary. Lower-income, single renters faced highest increases. Relevant to understand affordability concerns. #cdnecon #cdnpoli
The federal budget hopes to boost growth by ~0.7%/yr (+3.5% by 2030). Even if we exceed U.S. growth by that much, we won't regain our pre-2015 position until 2050.
My latest for @TheHubCanada on our long-term challenge ahead: thehub.ca/2025/11/12/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
My latest for @TheHubCanada on our long-term challenge ahead: thehub.ca/2025/11/12/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
November 12, 2025 at 5:55 PM
The federal budget hopes to boost growth by ~0.7%/yr (+3.5% by 2030). Even if we exceed U.S. growth by that much, we won't regain our pre-2015 position until 2050.
My latest for @TheHubCanada on our long-term challenge ahead: thehub.ca/2025/11/12/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
My latest for @TheHubCanada on our long-term challenge ahead: thehub.ca/2025/11/12/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
In the short term, though, they do see growth in Q3 this year (so no two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction that some consider a "recession"). They see QoQ growth of 0.5%.
October 29, 2025 at 2:07 PM
In the short term, though, they do see growth in Q3 this year (so no two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction that some consider a "recession"). They see QoQ growth of 0.5%.
And much of this is due to persistently lower trade volumes between Canada and the US. They anticipate non-commodity exports to be nearly 6% lower than would otherwise have been the case by end of next year. (Assuming no worsening of trade policy.)
October 29, 2025 at 2:07 PM
And much of this is due to persistently lower trade volumes between Canada and the US. They anticipate non-commodity exports to be nearly 6% lower than would otherwise have been the case by end of next year. (Assuming no worsening of trade policy.)
From the Bank's detailed analysis (their "MPR") this morning, they estimate that the U.S. trade policy changes (up to Oct 22) will make Canada's economy ~1.5% smaller than it would otherwise be. That's large (roughly $1.1k per capita!). www.bankofcanada.ca/publication... #cdnecon
October 29, 2025 at 2:07 PM
From the Bank's detailed analysis (their "MPR") this morning, they estimate that the U.S. trade policy changes (up to Oct 22) will make Canada's economy ~1.5% smaller than it would otherwise be. That's large (roughly $1.1k per capita!). www.bankofcanada.ca/publication... #cdnecon
This morning the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate to 2.25%, down 0.25 points, and projects relatively slow growth ahead.
Announcement: www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/10/fad...
Detailed analysis: www.bankofcanada.ca/publication... #cdnecon
Announcement: www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/10/fad...
Detailed analysis: www.bankofcanada.ca/publication... #cdnecon
October 29, 2025 at 1:52 PM
This morning the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate to 2.25%, down 0.25 points, and projects relatively slow growth ahead.
Announcement: www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/10/fad...
Detailed analysis: www.bankofcanada.ca/publication... #cdnecon
Announcement: www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/10/fad...
Detailed analysis: www.bankofcanada.ca/publication... #cdnecon
Looking forward to @tonykeller1's Max Bell lecture this evening on his new book Borderline Chaos! sutherlandhousebooks.com/product/bor... #cdnpoli
October 28, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Looking forward to @tonykeller1's Max Bell lecture this evening on his new book Borderline Chaos! sutherlandhousebooks.com/product/bor... #cdnpoli
Did today's data release change anything for the Bank of Canada's rate decision next week? Probably not. Recent changes in the three core measures are similar in September to where they were in August.
October 21, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Did today's data release change anything for the Bank of Canada's rate decision next week? Probably not. Recent changes in the three core measures are similar in September to where they were in August.
But this doesn't mean energy is higher this year than last. Those items are still a net negative on the overall inflation rate in Canada, just not as large a negative as they were in August.
October 21, 2025 at 2:30 PM
But this doesn't mean energy is higher this year than last. Those items are still a net negative on the overall inflation rate in Canada, just not as large a negative as they were in August.
Excluding food/energy, the rate is 2.4% in September and unchanged from 2.4% in August. Decomposing the change, it's almost all due to energy prices.
October 21, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Excluding food/energy, the rate is 2.4% in September and unchanged from 2.4% in August. Decomposing the change, it's almost all due to energy prices.
Today's data: inflation! 📈 Consumer prices in September are up 2.4% compared to Sept 2024. Up from a 1.9% inflation rate in August. What's behind the increase? www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon
October 21, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Today's data: inflation! 📈 Consumer prices in September are up 2.4% compared to Sept 2024. Up from a 1.9% inflation rate in August. What's behind the increase? www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon
It was great to be a part of this important conversation! Thanks to @thewalrus.ca for hosting it!
thewalrus.ca/the-walrus-t...
thewalrus.ca/the-walrus-t...
October 7, 2025 at 4:52 PM
It was great to be a part of this important conversation! Thanks to @thewalrus.ca for hosting it!
thewalrus.ca/the-walrus-t...
thewalrus.ca/the-walrus-t...
Canada to move all future budgets to the Fall: www.cbc.ca/news/politi...
For context, here's the timing of every federal budget since 1867. Nearly 80% of of all budgets were released by May; 68% by April. #cdnecon #cdnpoli
For context, here's the timing of every federal budget since 1867. Nearly 80% of of all budgets were released by May; 68% by April. #cdnecon #cdnpoli
October 6, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Canada to move all future budgets to the Fall: www.cbc.ca/news/politi...
For context, here's the timing of every federal budget since 1867. Nearly 80% of of all budgets were released by May; 68% by April. #cdnecon #cdnpoli
For context, here's the timing of every federal budget since 1867. Nearly 80% of of all budgets were released by May; 68% by April. #cdnecon #cdnpoli
Is Canada already in a recession?
My latest for @TheHubCanada explores the latest data thehub.ca/2025/09/17/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
My latest for @TheHubCanada explores the latest data thehub.ca/2025/09/17/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
September 17, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Is Canada already in a recession?
My latest for @TheHubCanada explores the latest data thehub.ca/2025/09/17/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
My latest for @TheHubCanada explores the latest data thehub.ca/2025/09/17/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
From today's jobs report, Canada's unemployment rate rises to 7.1% (up 0.5 points this year). Alberta has seen a notable increase to 8.4% (the highest since 2017, excl. covid).
More from StatCan here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
More from StatCan here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
September 5, 2025 at 2:04 PM
From today's jobs report, Canada's unemployment rate rises to 7.1% (up 0.5 points this year). Alberta has seen a notable increase to 8.4% (the highest since 2017, excl. covid).
More from StatCan here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
More from StatCan here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
Canada’s 5 percent of GDP defence spending commitment comes with a fiscal reckoning. And it's more than an 'operating budget' problem.
My latest for @TheHubCanada explores the future of the federal budget: thehub.ca/2025/07/10/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
My latest for @TheHubCanada explores the future of the federal budget: thehub.ca/2025/07/10/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
July 10, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Canada’s 5 percent of GDP defence spending commitment comes with a fiscal reckoning. And it's more than an 'operating budget' problem.
My latest for @TheHubCanada explores the future of the federal budget: thehub.ca/2025/07/10/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
My latest for @TheHubCanada explores the future of the federal budget: thehub.ca/2025/07/10/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
Did retaliatory tariffs affect Canadian imports from the U.S.? And what about consumer boycotts? Some new data provides some early answers.
My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2025/06/25/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2025/06/25/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
June 25, 2025 at 7:29 PM
Did retaliatory tariffs affect Canadian imports from the U.S.? And what about consumer boycotts? Some new data provides some early answers.
My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2025/06/25/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2025/06/25/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
What a higher NATO military spending target means for Canada's finances. My latest for @TheHubCanada on the potential for a 3.5%+1.5% target for NATO members: thehub.ca/2025/06/12/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
June 12, 2025 at 5:48 PM
What a higher NATO military spending target means for Canada's finances. My latest for @TheHubCanada on the potential for a 3.5%+1.5% target for NATO members: thehub.ca/2025/06/12/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
How much did the carbon tax actually impact inflation?
My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2025/05/22/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2025/05/22/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
May 22, 2025 at 4:02 PM
How much did the carbon tax actually impact inflation?
My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2025/05/22/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2025/05/22/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
It's been a month since Canada's federal consumer carbon price was eliminated. With the latest data from this morning, the effect on gasoline prices remains clear: nearly the full value of tax cut was passed to consumers. #cdnecon
May 5, 2025 at 7:30 PM
It's been a month since Canada's federal consumer carbon price was eliminated. With the latest data from this morning, the effect on gasoline prices remains clear: nearly the full value of tax cut was passed to consumers. #cdnecon
In an uncertain world, with no shortage of future demands on public finances, Canada would benefit from a credible & sustainable fiscal strategy. Unfortunately, the LPC platform would take us further from that goal.
My latest for @TheHubCanada here: thehub.ca/2025/04/21/... #cdnpoli #cdnecon
My latest for @TheHubCanada here: thehub.ca/2025/04/21/... #cdnpoli #cdnecon
April 21, 2025 at 5:01 PM
In an uncertain world, with no shortage of future demands on public finances, Canada would benefit from a credible & sustainable fiscal strategy. Unfortunately, the LPC platform would take us further from that goal.
My latest for @TheHubCanada here: thehub.ca/2025/04/21/... #cdnpoli #cdnecon
My latest for @TheHubCanada here: thehub.ca/2025/04/21/... #cdnpoli #cdnecon
The S&P 500 has lost 10.5% of its value in two days.
Since 1980, we've only seen larger declines three other times: the '87 crash, Nov 2008, and Mar 2020. And those weren't due to policy choices.
This may be the largest self-imposed destruction of wealth ever.
Since 1980, we've only seen larger declines three other times: the '87 crash, Nov 2008, and Mar 2020. And those weren't due to policy choices.
This may be the largest self-imposed destruction of wealth ever.
April 4, 2025 at 11:22 PM
The S&P 500 has lost 10.5% of its value in two days.
Since 1980, we've only seen larger declines three other times: the '87 crash, Nov 2008, and Mar 2020. And those weren't due to policy choices.
This may be the largest self-imposed destruction of wealth ever.
Since 1980, we've only seen larger declines three other times: the '87 crash, Nov 2008, and Mar 2020. And those weren't due to policy choices.
This may be the largest self-imposed destruction of wealth ever.
How bad was today's stock market decline?
Of the 11,406 trading days since January 1980, only 29 had larger declines.
Of the 11,406 trading days since January 1980, only 29 had larger declines.
April 3, 2025 at 8:51 PM
How bad was today's stock market decline?
Of the 11,406 trading days since January 1980, only 29 had larger declines.
Of the 11,406 trading days since January 1980, only 29 had larger declines.