Peter
@treadingwater1.bsky.social
Maine Retired... Interests: Science, Reading, Investing, Sailing, Love Baseball No DM
Banks have started to act funky which should be cause of concern. Banks are early cyclicals and have performed well, especially given the new deregulations on the industry by the Trump administration. $JPM has formed a small head and shoulders pattern which deserves watching.
August 16, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Banks have started to act funky which should be cause of concern. Banks are early cyclicals and have performed well, especially given the new deregulations on the industry by the Trump administration. $JPM has formed a small head and shoulders pattern which deserves watching.
Another data report of significance will be the Non Farm payroll report due Thursday. A low or negative number would indicate a weakening economy and potentially set the stage for a rate cut at the JULY FED meeting.
June 29, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Another data report of significance will be the Non Farm payroll report due Thursday. A low or negative number would indicate a weakening economy and potentially set the stage for a rate cut at the JULY FED meeting.
Something we may want to keep an eye on in the weeks ahead is credit spreads.
June 29, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Something we may want to keep an eye on in the weeks ahead is credit spreads.
Effect of tariffs on consumer households!
April 2, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Effect of tariffs on consumer households!
$PGR This is the best Property and Casualty Insur. company in the US. They are very analytical in assessing risk and have 2% of California residential insurance. I bought a lot of this in the premarket as it was trading in the low 230's. At a 16X next yr EPS and premiums will be going up.
January 11, 2025 at 5:43 PM
$PGR This is the best Property and Casualty Insur. company in the US. They are very analytical in assessing risk and have 2% of California residential insurance. I bought a lot of this in the premarket as it was trading in the low 230's. At a 16X next yr EPS and premiums will be going up.
$AAPL This stock had almost 20 days of straight up performance, and now analysts are saying the AI boost to an upgrade cycle is an empty catalyst. How the hell did all the street analysts get this so wrong? China sales are terrible.
January 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
$AAPL This stock had almost 20 days of straight up performance, and now analysts are saying the AI boost to an upgrade cycle is an empty catalyst. How the hell did all the street analysts get this so wrong? China sales are terrible.
The MAG 7 valuations are a big constraint on any out performance of the major indices this year. It was great on the way up, but now their gravitational pull is tough.
January 11, 2025 at 5:25 PM
The MAG 7 valuations are a big constraint on any out performance of the major indices this year. It was great on the way up, but now their gravitational pull is tough.
$UST10Y The ten year bond continues to climb higher and is approaching 5%. However was the last 15 years just reflective of a real low growth environment and China imports keeping pressure on inflation and we are returning to a more normal rate environment?
January 11, 2025 at 5:04 PM
$UST10Y The ten year bond continues to climb higher and is approaching 5%. However was the last 15 years just reflective of a real low growth environment and China imports keeping pressure on inflation and we are returning to a more normal rate environment?
AAII Bull Bear ratio is starting a more negative sentiment which would be health!
January 11, 2025 at 4:51 PM
AAII Bull Bear ratio is starting a more negative sentiment which would be health!
$SPY Th equity put/call ratio hit .7 yesterday, it is usually around .8 that would measure a significant oversold reading.
January 11, 2025 at 4:49 PM
$SPY Th equity put/call ratio hit .7 yesterday, it is usually around .8 that would measure a significant oversold reading.
$SPY The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the the 50 day moving average sits around 25%, which is where should see a bounce in an up trending market.
January 11, 2025 at 4:47 PM
$SPY The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the the 50 day moving average sits around 25%, which is where should see a bounce in an up trending market.
$SPY $QQQ Some macro data. The Oscillator after recent bounce, went right back negative. The summation index continues to get more deeply negative at -411. The long term uptrend since 2023 bottom is being tested.
January 11, 2025 at 4:45 PM
$SPY $QQQ Some macro data. The Oscillator after recent bounce, went right back negative. The summation index continues to get more deeply negative at -411. The long term uptrend since 2023 bottom is being tested.
$SPY $QQQ Yesterday's advances are being unwound and then some. NYSE advance/decline is heavily negative with the oscillator now about -5, with the summation index likely headed lower. 10 year bond is 4.68% and wants higher rate.
January 7, 2025 at 5:51 PM
$SPY $QQQ Yesterday's advances are being unwound and then some. NYSE advance/decline is heavily negative with the oscillator now about -5, with the summation index likely headed lower. 10 year bond is 4.68% and wants higher rate.
$SPY $QQQ The market had a good day on Friday, all major indexes advanced. This week, CES will be watched closely for AI names, and Fridays advance may have been front running the event. FED minutes, Jobs report on Friday will dominate news. The summation index turned up, still negative.
January 5, 2025 at 11:23 PM
$SPY $QQQ The market had a good day on Friday, all major indexes advanced. This week, CES will be watched closely for AI names, and Fridays advance may have been front running the event. FED minutes, Jobs report on Friday will dominate news. The summation index turned up, still negative.
$ACN Company posted earnings about 8 days ago. They reduced guidance and the stock went up, but not for long.
January 2, 2025 at 6:29 PM
$ACN Company posted earnings about 8 days ago. They reduced guidance and the stock went up, but not for long.
$AAPL This does not look so good.
January 2, 2025 at 6:26 PM
$AAPL This does not look so good.
$QQQ Head and shoulder top?
January 2, 2025 at 6:25 PM
$QQQ Head and shoulder top?
The AAII BULL BEAR Index peaked at 51 bulls right on time for a rather negative December. If not for $AAPL and $TSLA, things would have been worse. The index obscures the pain that occurred in many of the non MAG 7 Stocks. $UNH suffered almost a 20% loss, or over $100 bil.
Happy New Year!
Happy New Year!
January 1, 2025 at 4:00 PM
The AAII BULL BEAR Index peaked at 51 bulls right on time for a rather negative December. If not for $AAPL and $TSLA, things would have been worse. The index obscures the pain that occurred in many of the non MAG 7 Stocks. $UNH suffered almost a 20% loss, or over $100 bil.
Happy New Year!
Happy New Year!
$SPY Now below the 10. 20 and 50 day MA. Not good!
December 31, 2024 at 4:30 AM
$SPY Now below the 10. 20 and 50 day MA. Not good!
$QQQ This is a negative chart. Below the 10, 20 Day MA and 50 day coming up.
December 31, 2024 at 4:28 AM
$QQQ This is a negative chart. Below the 10, 20 Day MA and 50 day coming up.
$SPY Some thoughts on a potential pullback, caveat: I know nothing. A pullback to the 200 day moving average would be at 553. Correcting the entire move at a 38% retracement off of 2022 October low would be about 500, or -18%. This would be a normal correction within a secular bull.
December 31, 2024 at 3:34 AM
$SPY Some thoughts on a potential pullback, caveat: I know nothing. A pullback to the 200 day moving average would be at 553. Correcting the entire move at a 38% retracement off of 2022 October low would be about 500, or -18%. This would be a normal correction within a secular bull.
$SPY $QQQ This market looks awful.
December 31, 2024 at 2:14 AM
$SPY $QQQ This market looks awful.
$SPY $QQQ The Oscillators continue to be negative, the summation Index is -308 and declining. It's a very narrow market. Few stocks holding the index up and mag 7 have significant overvaluations given the projected growth rates. Bond rates are climbing, not the underpinnings of a bull market.
December 30, 2024 at 3:03 AM
$SPY $QQQ The Oscillators continue to be negative, the summation Index is -308 and declining. It's a very narrow market. Few stocks holding the index up and mag 7 have significant overvaluations given the projected growth rates. Bond rates are climbing, not the underpinnings of a bull market.
The ten year bond: Since Dec 6th, this has gone in just one direction, UP.
December 27, 2024 at 6:34 PM
The ten year bond: Since Dec 6th, this has gone in just one direction, UP.
$BA Boeing is positive, one of the few. Am long since $150.
December 27, 2024 at 6:32 PM
$BA Boeing is positive, one of the few. Am long since $150.