If you jumped on Tesla shared around or after the election you aren't too pleased at the moment....
#Tesla #Elon

Hurt a chunk last time we did this

This is always a great sign....

While we wait excitedly for the US official inflation data for February in about a week - here is the Cleveland Fed's latest nowcast (Real-time economic forecasting model) of where we are....around 4%

And not really since Reagan/Vietnam War

Ignoring the huge build up during Reagan, that then immediately phased out after his term, the US hasn't spent above 5% since the Vietnam War (even after 9/11). You could argue the Reagan build up was to challenge the USSR at least, but Trump wants to withdraw from being the world's policeman...

One great way to ensure we can't afford social security is to tank growth

The "Economic Policy Uncertainty Index" is creeping up (essentially measures of economic uncertainty mentioned in the news....under the assumption you get your news from...the news)

Initial Claims - as promised, though to be fair they have not particularly jumped this week. However, it is worth noting many of the Federal workers let go may not appear in this yet.

New data on new claims for jobless benefits comes out today (i.e. the claim people make when they first separate from an employer to determine eligibility). This is what it looks like at the moment - we'll update as new data is released. #economy #trump #trumpconomy

@piie.com produced some nice analysis on the GDP and price impact of the trade wars. Worth noting primarily that while the impact on the US is much smaller, it isn't nothing, and will be felt even more depending on how countries retaliate

USDA data on export markets for soybeans - see the dropoff in the last tariff war in 2018 (not even close to offset by other markets) #trump #economy #exports

Just over half of US soybean exports go to China (around $12bn). Last time we did this in 2018 it dropped to $3bn. Prices fell the last week

US BEA shows consumer spending down slightly in January (February figures will be a better measure but won't be out until March 28th). #trump #economy #consumption #gdp

Inflation expectations had a small pickup in February - this data from the Federal Reserve gives what people think inflation will be one year from now. Small pick up is not too significant, but we will keep tracking. #trump #economy #inflation

Tracking with the most real time data we can get how much worse Trump is making the economy - Atlanta Fed revises down significantly growth estimates in nowcast model for US economy. (www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...)