Tiago Ferraz
@tpferraz.bsky.social
Researcher at CERP/USP | PhD Economics @uspoficial.bsky.social
Labor | Education | Urban Economics
https://sites.google.com/site/tiagopontesferraz
Labor | Education | Urban Economics
https://sites.google.com/site/tiagopontesferraz
Vai ser ótimo ter um feedback seu, quando vc puder, claro.
August 5, 2025 at 12:46 AM
Vai ser ótimo ter um feedback seu, quando vc puder, claro.
In short, migration transformed Brazil’s cities, and Evangelical churches were uniquely positioned to respond. This wasn’t just about belief! It was about market adaptation.
You can check the paper here: github.com/tiagopferraz...
Feel free to contact us and talk about it!
You can check the paper here: github.com/tiagopferraz...
Feel free to contact us and talk about it!
github.com
August 4, 2025 at 2:18 PM
In short, migration transformed Brazil’s cities, and Evangelical churches were uniquely positioned to respond. This wasn’t just about belief! It was about market adaptation.
You can check the paper here: github.com/tiagopferraz...
Feel free to contact us and talk about it!
You can check the paper here: github.com/tiagopferraz...
Feel free to contact us and talk about it!
🟣 To explain the observed Evangelical rise via income alone, wages would’ve had to fall between 60% and 80%, which is unlikely.
🟢 But a 20% increase in Evangelical temples, holding income fixed, is sufficient to replicate the observed shift in Evangelical affiliation.
🟢 But a 20% increase in Evangelical temples, holding income fixed, is sufficient to replicate the observed shift in Evangelical affiliation.
August 4, 2025 at 2:18 PM
🟣 To explain the observed Evangelical rise via income alone, wages would’ve had to fall between 60% and 80%, which is unlikely.
🟢 But a 20% increase in Evangelical temples, holding income fixed, is sufficient to replicate the observed shift in Evangelical affiliation.
🟢 But a 20% increase in Evangelical temples, holding income fixed, is sufficient to replicate the observed shift in Evangelical affiliation.
To unpack the contribution of each mechanism, we have a structural model of religious choice, which suggests that the supply-side response was the main driver of migration-induced Evangelical growth. Our counterfactual exercises show that:
August 4, 2025 at 2:18 PM
To unpack the contribution of each mechanism, we have a structural model of religious choice, which suggests that the supply-side response was the main driver of migration-induced Evangelical growth. Our counterfactual exercises show that:
The difference comes down to institutional flexibility.
Evangelical churches usually have lower fixed costs and decentralized leadership, while the Catholic Church is more centralized and capital-intensive, requiring long priest training and dedicated buildings.
Evangelical churches usually have lower fixed costs and decentralized leadership, while the Catholic Church is more centralized and capital-intensive, requiring long priest training and dedicated buildings.
August 4, 2025 at 2:18 PM
The difference comes down to institutional flexibility.
Evangelical churches usually have lower fixed costs and decentralized leadership, while the Catholic Church is more centralized and capital-intensive, requiring long priest training and dedicated buildings.
Evangelical churches usually have lower fixed costs and decentralized leadership, while the Catholic Church is more centralized and capital-intensive, requiring long priest training and dedicated buildings.
Why? Two main mechanisms:
🔸 Demand-side: migration reduced local wages, especially among informal workers, making Evangelical churches, known for community support, more attractive.
🔸 Supply-side: Evangelical churches rapidly expanded in response to growing urban populations.
🔸 Demand-side: migration reduced local wages, especially among informal workers, making Evangelical churches, known for community support, more attractive.
🔸 Supply-side: Evangelical churches rapidly expanded in response to growing urban populations.
August 4, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Why? Two main mechanisms:
🔸 Demand-side: migration reduced local wages, especially among informal workers, making Evangelical churches, known for community support, more attractive.
🔸 Supply-side: Evangelical churches rapidly expanded in response to growing urban populations.
🔸 Demand-side: migration reduced local wages, especially among informal workers, making Evangelical churches, known for community support, more attractive.
🔸 Supply-side: Evangelical churches rapidly expanded in response to growing urban populations.
We find:
✅ Migration led to a decline in Catholic affiliation while simultaneously leading to an increase in Evangelical affiliation
✅ It explains ~23% of the rise in Evangelicalism over the period
✅ Migration led to a decline in Catholic affiliation while simultaneously leading to an increase in Evangelical affiliation
✅ It explains ~23% of the rise in Evangelicalism over the period
August 4, 2025 at 2:18 PM
We find:
✅ Migration led to a decline in Catholic affiliation while simultaneously leading to an increase in Evangelical affiliation
✅ It explains ~23% of the rise in Evangelicalism over the period
✅ Migration led to a decline in Catholic affiliation while simultaneously leading to an increase in Evangelical affiliation
✅ It explains ~23% of the rise in Evangelicalism over the period
We use exogenous variation in migration flows driven by international commodity price shocks to isolate the impact from other confounding factors and alleviate concerns about migrants' self-selection. We then ask: how did it affect the people already living in destination cities?
August 4, 2025 at 2:18 PM
We use exogenous variation in migration flows driven by international commodity price shocks to isolate the impact from other confounding factors and alleviate concerns about migrants' self-selection. We then ask: how did it affect the people already living in destination cities?
A popular explanation for this? Migration. Millions of people moved to urban centers where Evangelical churches were emerging. But was migration the cause of this religious transformation? And if so, how?
August 4, 2025 at 2:18 PM
A popular explanation for this? Migration. Millions of people moved to urban centers where Evangelical churches were emerging. But was migration the cause of this religious transformation? And if so, how?
Between 1980 and 2010, Brazil saw one of the most striking religious shifts in the world:
- Catholic affiliation fell from ~90% to ~65%.
- Evangelical affiliation more than tripled.
This reshaped politics, identity, and community life.
- Catholic affiliation fell from ~90% to ~65%.
- Evangelical affiliation more than tripled.
This reshaped politics, identity, and community life.
August 4, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Between 1980 and 2010, Brazil saw one of the most striking religious shifts in the world:
- Catholic affiliation fell from ~90% to ~65%.
- Evangelical affiliation more than tripled.
This reshaped politics, identity, and community life.
- Catholic affiliation fell from ~90% to ~65%.
- Evangelical affiliation more than tripled.
This reshaped politics, identity, and community life.
Additionally, our work relates to a recent paper by
@gulyssea.bsky.social and Clément Imbert, which shows that workers transition from informal to formal jobs over the long run, driven by increased formal firms and job opportunities. (9/n)
@gulyssea.bsky.social and Clément Imbert, which shows that workers transition from informal to formal jobs over the long run, driven by increased formal firms and job opportunities. (9/n)
May 4, 2025 at 2:18 AM
Additionally, our work relates to a recent paper by
@gulyssea.bsky.social and Clément Imbert, which shows that workers transition from informal to formal jobs over the long run, driven by increased formal firms and job opportunities. (9/n)
@gulyssea.bsky.social and Clément Imbert, which shows that workers transition from informal to formal jobs over the long run, driven by increased formal firms and job opportunities. (9/n)
In our research, we show that incoming migration results in a reduction in formal employment that closely matches the increase in informality and decreases in total compensation in the formal sector (earnings and non-wage benefits) and the earnings of informal workers. (8/n)
May 4, 2025 at 2:18 AM
In our research, we show that incoming migration results in a reduction in formal employment that closely matches the increase in informality and decreases in total compensation in the formal sector (earnings and non-wage benefits) and the earnings of informal workers. (8/n)
...of the effects of labor supply shocks on native workers, particularly in the formal sector. For instance, studies by Kleemans & Magruder (2018) and El-Badaoui et al. (2017) find that immigration increases informality and reduces earnings among native informal workers. (7/n)
May 4, 2025 at 2:18 AM
...of the effects of labor supply shocks on native workers, particularly in the formal sector. For instance, studies by Kleemans & Magruder (2018) and El-Badaoui et al. (2017) find that immigration increases informality and reduces earnings among native informal workers. (7/n)
...in the Semiarid region and existing migrant networks to forecast the number of incoming workers at their destinations. Much of the current empirical literature overlooks other adjustment margins beyond unemployment or wages, which can lead to an underestimation... (6/n)
May 4, 2025 at 2:18 AM
...in the Semiarid region and existing migrant networks to forecast the number of incoming workers at their destinations. Much of the current empirical literature overlooks other adjustment margins beyond unemployment or wages, which can lead to an underestimation... (6/n)