@tonkimon.bsky.social
She's cheer captain and I'm on the bleachers /
Emotional motion sickness / The spirit of a hustler and the swagger of a college kid / Bluffin with my muffin / I like my beats fast and my bass down low
Emotional motion sickness / The spirit of a hustler and the swagger of a college kid / Bluffin with my muffin / I like my beats fast and my bass down low
He’s not the hardest realist. He’s just someone with a compulsive need to be contrarian.
January 19, 2026 at 2:56 AM
He’s not the hardest realist. He’s just someone with a compulsive need to be contrarian.
No. Some of it's Ro.
January 18, 2026 at 1:16 AM
No. Some of it's Ro.
Fine. No Seelowe and no Barbarossa?
January 16, 2026 at 6:46 PM
Fine. No Seelowe and no Barbarossa?
Fine. If no Sea Lion *and* no Barbarossa…?
January 16, 2026 at 6:46 PM
Fine. If no Sea Lion *and* no Barbarossa…?
That's the problem - overdetermination. Nazi grand strategy was flawed. The Nazi military-industrial base was flawed. The deconstruction of the Tiger versus the Sherman shows Nazi operational and tactical prowess was limited too. Yet if Sea Lion had been executed and Barbarossa had not...?
January 16, 2026 at 4:38 AM
That's the problem - overdetermination. Nazi grand strategy was flawed. The Nazi military-industrial base was flawed. The deconstruction of the Tiger versus the Sherman shows Nazi operational and tactical prowess was limited too. Yet if Sea Lion had been executed and Barbarossa had not...?
I know this is cheap anecdote of the type you're railing against, but I come back to Mike Vickers telling Charlie Wilson that what matters isn't the individual weapon but the combined arms system they create. Is your argument that the Allies were markedly better at creating combined arms system*s*?
January 16, 2026 at 4:33 AM
I know this is cheap anecdote of the type you're railing against, but I come back to Mike Vickers telling Charlie Wilson that what matters isn't the individual weapon but the combined arms system they create. Is your argument that the Allies were markedly better at creating combined arms system*s*?
Good job. I'd throw in Overy, Why the Allies Won - the Nazi military industrial complex was deeply flawed, couldn't agree on standards and thus didn't exploit economies of scale. Also, Field on Economic Consequences has more on WW II models being based on pre-war prototypes.
January 16, 2026 at 4:26 AM
Good job. I'd throw in Overy, Why the Allies Won - the Nazi military industrial complex was deeply flawed, couldn't agree on standards and thus didn't exploit economies of scale. Also, Field on Economic Consequences has more on WW II models being based on pre-war prototypes.
Funny, I thought of him too.
January 14, 2026 at 12:07 AM
Funny, I thought of him too.
Raises the question: who is the greatest military strategist *today*?
January 13, 2026 at 5:17 PM
Raises the question: who is the greatest military strategist *today*?
He did write a good column for (I think) Slate (!) once. Basically, he was Gust Avrakotos: we want people who speak the same language as the people they're spying on. But at the same time, we don't need to stick to only Mormons: it's okay if you had a wild junior year abroad in Prague.
January 13, 2026 at 4:57 PM
He did write a good column for (I think) Slate (!) once. Basically, he was Gust Avrakotos: we want people who speak the same language as the people they're spying on. But at the same time, we don't need to stick to only Mormons: it's okay if you had a wild junior year abroad in Prague.
His record of predictions is...not great.
January 13, 2026 at 4:55 PM
His record of predictions is...not great.
I can see how you deduced that he (?) was SIGINT, but how Coast Guard?
January 12, 2026 at 3:40 PM
I can see how you deduced that he (?) was SIGINT, but how Coast Guard?
Austin has good live comedy, too, I think (as befits a college town). Just saying.
January 10, 2026 at 5:44 AM
Austin has good live comedy, too, I think (as befits a college town). Just saying.
1) Neoliberalism is bad. What's good?
2) It's simpler to just say "racist."
2) Isn't it ironic that the neoconservatives were also neoliberals? It's almost as if words lack meaning.
3) Yeah, the Congo really benefited from colonialism. Per capita GDP and mortality rates are through the roof.
2) It's simpler to just say "racist."
2) Isn't it ironic that the neoconservatives were also neoliberals? It's almost as if words lack meaning.
3) Yeah, the Congo really benefited from colonialism. Per capita GDP and mortality rates are through the roof.
January 5, 2026 at 8:45 PM
1) Neoliberalism is bad. What's good?
2) It's simpler to just say "racist."
2) Isn't it ironic that the neoconservatives were also neoliberals? It's almost as if words lack meaning.
3) Yeah, the Congo really benefited from colonialism. Per capita GDP and mortality rates are through the roof.
2) It's simpler to just say "racist."
2) Isn't it ironic that the neoconservatives were also neoliberals? It's almost as if words lack meaning.
3) Yeah, the Congo really benefited from colonialism. Per capita GDP and mortality rates are through the roof.
Again, the symmetry of starting the book in the Mekong, saying the best weapon is a knife, and ending in the Highlands, calling in B52s - captures so much
January 4, 2026 at 2:54 AM
Again, the symmetry of starting the book in the Mekong, saying the best weapon is a knife, and ending in the Highlands, calling in B52s - captures so much
I never saw the movie, which is ironic as I really liked the book, but especially like that they made Ellsberg a composite character and played by Eric Bogosian no less. :)
I'm a lifelong civilian who never deployed (but worked for DOD), but yeah, reading about Komer really makes me think of GWOT.
I'm a lifelong civilian who never deployed (but worked for DOD), but yeah, reading about Komer really makes me think of GWOT.
January 4, 2026 at 2:45 AM
I never saw the movie, which is ironic as I really liked the book, but especially like that they made Ellsberg a composite character and played by Eric Bogosian no less. :)
I'm a lifelong civilian who never deployed (but worked for DOD), but yeah, reading about Komer really makes me think of GWOT.
I'm a lifelong civilian who never deployed (but worked for DOD), but yeah, reading about Komer really makes me think of GWOT.
Bright Shining Lie is great (but wrong?), but JPV the serially unfaithful bad husband and father married to two women at the same time? (Also, who was going to fiddle with his personnel file?). Love how BSL ended - the counterinsurgent calling in Arc Lights.
January 4, 2026 at 2:38 AM
Bright Shining Lie is great (but wrong?), but JPV the serially unfaithful bad husband and father married to two women at the same time? (Also, who was going to fiddle with his personnel file?). Love how BSL ended - the counterinsurgent calling in Arc Lights.
Also: Pete could read (assign!?) this, and/or Google Scholar the authors and their work, but reading journal articles is for nerds and takes away from time that could be used CrossFitting (went back to my first CrossFits this week!).
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Introducing the Women’s Activities in Armed Rebellion (WAAR) project, 1946–2015 - Meredith Loken, Hilary Matfess, 2024
This article introduces the Women’s Activities in Armed Rebellion (WAAR) project, a multi-methods project that includes a cross-sectional dataset of women’s par...
journals.sagepub.com
January 3, 2026 at 9:34 PM
Also: Pete could read (assign!?) this, and/or Google Scholar the authors and their work, but reading journal articles is for nerds and takes away from time that could be used CrossFitting (went back to my first CrossFits this week!).
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Yes - to achieve Unity of Effort, you may have to work with the woman at the NGO or State Department or USAID who went to Berkeley, where she majored in Women, Gender and Sexuality Studies
January 3, 2026 at 9:14 PM
Yes - to achieve Unity of Effort, you may have to work with the woman at the NGO or State Department or USAID who went to Berkeley, where she majored in Women, Gender and Sexuality Studies
I’m guessing FM 3-24 is going to get dusted off. I’m not advocating for or against it, but doesn’t it use the term “whole of government” once or twice? (I’m finishing a biography of Robert Blowtorch Komer, who ran CORDS.)
January 3, 2026 at 9:02 PM
I’m guessing FM 3-24 is going to get dusted off. I’m not advocating for or against it, but doesn’t it use the term “whole of government” once or twice? (I’m finishing a biography of Robert Blowtorch Komer, who ran CORDS.)