Thomas Pope
@tompope.bsky.social
Deputy Chief Economist @instituteforgov.bsky.social
On Twitter @tompope0
On Twitter @tompope0
Nice thread James. Do you know which other taxes are driving this £4bn undershoot vs forecast?
September 19, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Nice thread James. Do you know which other taxes are driving this £4bn undershoot vs forecast?
Local government received a relatively good settlement. And this will help to improve services and keep councils afloat. Councils will still be looking for more comprehensive reform in the coming weeks and months 6/7
June 11, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Local government received a relatively good settlement. And this will help to improve services and keep councils afloat. Councils will still be looking for more comprehensive reform in the coming weeks and months 6/7
This means most public services should have enough funding to meet demand over the course of the parliament, though given increases in court and probation funding prisons looks like a relative loser.
Productivity improvements will be needed to transform performance 3/7
Productivity improvements will be needed to transform performance 3/7
June 11, 2025 at 5:59 PM
This means most public services should have enough funding to meet demand over the course of the parliament, though given increases in court and probation funding prisons looks like a relative loser.
Productivity improvements will be needed to transform performance 3/7
Productivity improvements will be needed to transform performance 3/7
Overall, govt prioritisation was similar to last Autumn: more money for health, local gov and justice, less for aid and home office.
Within day-to-day spend, public services have been relatively protected, leaving big cuts elsewhere. Many depts still below 2010/11 real levels 2/7
Within day-to-day spend, public services have been relatively protected, leaving big cuts elsewhere. Many depts still below 2010/11 real levels 2/7
June 11, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Overall, govt prioritisation was similar to last Autumn: more money for health, local gov and justice, less for aid and home office.
Within day-to-day spend, public services have been relatively protected, leaving big cuts elsewhere. Many depts still below 2010/11 real levels 2/7
Within day-to-day spend, public services have been relatively protected, leaving big cuts elsewhere. Many depts still below 2010/11 real levels 2/7
And on public services:
June 11, 2025 at 3:45 PM
And on public services:
Some top level views on the SR from me and other @instituteforgovernment.org.uk colleagues 1/2
June 11, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Some top level views on the SR from me and other @instituteforgovernment.org.uk colleagues 1/2
And sign up for our on-the-day webinar to get our instant reaction www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/2025-s... 9/9
June 6, 2025 at 11:19 AM
And sign up for our on-the-day webinar to get our instant reaction www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/2025-s... 9/9
6. What will the SR mean for local government? This is one service area that is struggling with growing demands. We might also see reforms to how local government is funded, including new integrated settlements for mayors and more concrete commitments to simpler funding 7/9
June 6, 2025 at 11:19 AM
6. What will the SR mean for local government? This is one service area that is struggling with growing demands. We might also see reforms to how local government is funded, including new integrated settlements for mayors and more concrete commitments to simpler funding 7/9
4. How will the government allocate capital budgets? Many of the government's missions, like growth and decarbonisation, rely on govt investment. Investment budgets are quite large, but the demands from departments are greater. Where will the govt focus, and will we see a clear strategy? 5/9
June 6, 2025 at 11:19 AM
4. How will the government allocate capital budgets? Many of the government's missions, like growth and decarbonisation, rely on govt investment. Investment budgets are quite large, but the demands from departments are greater. Where will the govt focus, and will we see a clear strategy? 5/9
2. Will the settlements be enough to improve public services? Our work has highlighted problems in many services. Will the govt put enough additional day-to-day spending in to meet demand in struggling areas like health, justice and local govt? 3/9
June 6, 2025 at 11:19 AM
2. Will the settlements be enough to improve public services? Our work has highlighted problems in many services. Will the govt put enough additional day-to-day spending in to meet demand in struggling areas like health, justice and local govt? 3/9
1. Where will the government choose to prioritise? Spending settlements are tight, and this is the point where the govt needs to confront inevitable trade-offs. Will the 'winners' be those that have tended to be best historically - like health - or will the govt prioritise differently? 2/9
June 6, 2025 at 11:19 AM
1. Where will the government choose to prioritise? Spending settlements are tight, and this is the point where the govt needs to confront inevitable trade-offs. Will the 'winners' be those that have tended to be best historically - like health - or will the govt prioritise differently? 2/9
One dog that didn't bark was on departmental spending. Rumours in advance that a spending squeeze would put unprotected spending in an even tighter spot ahead of the SR, but the outlook for those departments' allocations in June is mostly unchanged 4/5
March 26, 2025 at 5:07 PM
One dog that didn't bark was on departmental spending. Rumours in advance that a spending squeeze would put unprotected spending in an even tighter spot ahead of the SR, but the outlook for those departments' allocations in June is mostly unchanged 4/5
That meant Reeves was on course to miss her main fiscal rule, but only by less than £1bn. We argue that it would have been better to refrain from rushed policy announcements to restore headroom and instead wait until Autumn.
But at least there were no tax measures! 3/5
But at least there were no tax measures! 3/5
March 26, 2025 at 5:07 PM
That meant Reeves was on course to miss her main fiscal rule, but only by less than £1bn. We argue that it would have been better to refrain from rushed policy announcements to restore headroom and instead wait until Autumn.
But at least there were no tax measures! 3/5
But at least there were no tax measures! 3/5
First, the growth forecast is mostly unchanged in later years, but the fiscal forecast is worse due to higher gilt yields.
Both of these are key risks around the forecast heading into the Autumn - the OBR looks increasingly like an optimistic outlier on growth compared to others 2/5
Both of these are key risks around the forecast heading into the Autumn - the OBR looks increasingly like an optimistic outlier on growth compared to others 2/5
March 26, 2025 at 5:07 PM
First, the growth forecast is mostly unchanged in later years, but the fiscal forecast is worse due to higher gilt yields.
Both of these are key risks around the forecast heading into the Autumn - the OBR looks increasingly like an optimistic outlier on growth compared to others 2/5
Both of these are key risks around the forecast heading into the Autumn - the OBR looks increasingly like an optimistic outlier on growth compared to others 2/5
One of the key (downside?) risks around this latest OBR forecast is shown in this chart. The OBR is more optimistic about productivity growth than any other forecaster it includes in its external average
Let's hope they're right
Let's hope they're right
March 26, 2025 at 1:44 PM
One of the key (downside?) risks around this latest OBR forecast is shown in this chart. The OBR is more optimistic about productivity growth than any other forecaster it includes in its external average
Let's hope they're right
Let's hope they're right
Our definition of 'fiscal fine-tuning' in our report on the fiscal framework last year.
Today's statement is a textbook example (albeit capital budgets were protected this time)
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Today's statement is a textbook example (albeit capital budgets were protected this time)
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
March 26, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Our definition of 'fiscal fine-tuning' in our report on the fiscal framework last year.
Today's statement is a textbook example (albeit capital budgets were protected this time)
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
Today's statement is a textbook example (albeit capital budgets were protected this time)
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...
If what this official says is true, then Rachel Reeves had basically a 50% chance of needing to take action this March given her starting headroom is so low...
Seems like a very flimsy commitment to a single fiscal event per year.
www.ft.com/content/2f72...
Seems like a very flimsy commitment to a single fiscal event per year.
www.ft.com/content/2f72...
March 19, 2025 at 6:17 PM
If what this official says is true, then Rachel Reeves had basically a 50% chance of needing to take action this March given her starting headroom is so low...
Seems like a very flimsy commitment to a single fiscal event per year.
www.ft.com/content/2f72...
Seems like a very flimsy commitment to a single fiscal event per year.
www.ft.com/content/2f72...
Furthermore, the biggest budget top-ups in specific departments have almost all come in the last few years, pointing to systematic problems with forecasting spend in areas like asylum and transport 7/8
January 16, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Furthermore, the biggest budget top-ups in specific departments have almost all come in the last few years, pointing to systematic problems with forecasting spend in areas like asylum and transport 7/8
The answer? Yes. Between 2004/05 and 2017/18, HMT almost always managed to keep final spending below the initial budget. That has not happened once since 5/8
January 16, 2025 at 2:32 PM
The answer? Yes. Between 2004/05 and 2017/18, HMT almost always managed to keep final spending below the initial budget. That has not happened once since 5/8
But even with a big injection this year, spending increases 2021/22 to 2024/25 more or less match the initial plans announced at Spending Review 2021, before inflation eroded those budgets.
That big Reeves injection more or less restored the initial Sunak plan 3/8
That big Reeves injection more or less restored the initial Sunak plan 3/8
January 16, 2025 at 2:32 PM
But even with a big injection this year, spending increases 2021/22 to 2024/25 more or less match the initial plans announced at Spending Review 2021, before inflation eroded those budgets.
That big Reeves injection more or less restored the initial Sunak plan 3/8
That big Reeves injection more or less restored the initial Sunak plan 3/8
First, the Autumn Budget was a decisive change in the planned path for departmental spending and means big increases this year and next. 2/8
January 16, 2025 at 2:32 PM
First, the Autumn Budget was a decisive change in the planned path for departmental spending and means big increases this year and next. 2/8
If you don't want to read all that, here it is summarised in a couple of sentences
December 16, 2024 at 5:29 PM
If you don't want to read all that, here it is summarised in a couple of sentences
Those are just initial thoughts... for more detailed reflections, and those of my excellent colleagues, do join our webinar on Wednesday morning
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/labour...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/labour...
December 16, 2024 at 5:25 PM
Those are just initial thoughts... for more detailed reflections, and those of my excellent colleagues, do join our webinar on Wednesday morning
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/labour...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/labour...
This graphic sets out the sequencing that we think is needed for the plans to be effective
October 23, 2024 at 9:22 AM
This graphic sets out the sequencing that we think is needed for the plans to be effective