Tom Calver
@tomcalver.bsky.social
Data Editor, @thetimes.com
I write a weekly data column called Go Figure
🔗 https://www.thetimes.com/profile/tom-calver
📧 thomas.calver@the-times.co.uk
I write a weekly data column called Go Figure
🔗 https://www.thetimes.com/profile/tom-calver
📧 thomas.calver@the-times.co.uk
There are plenty of reasons why. EU funding plus currency independence; thriving tech and defence sectors; lower taxes for young Poles so less brain drain, etc.
But Poland also has a very different attitude to building things.
More in my column
www.thetimes.com/article/52a8...
But Poland also has a very different attitude to building things.
More in my column
www.thetimes.com/article/52a8...
October 12, 2025 at 11:59 AM
There are plenty of reasons why. EU funding plus currency independence; thriving tech and defence sectors; lower taxes for young Poles so less brain drain, etc.
But Poland also has a very different attitude to building things.
More in my column
www.thetimes.com/article/52a8...
But Poland also has a very different attitude to building things.
More in my column
www.thetimes.com/article/52a8...
Since 2019, the UK economy has barely grown if we adjust for immigration. Poland’s, however, has grown by more than 18% - and is set to overtake Japan in the early 2030s
2/3
2/3
October 12, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Since 2019, the UK economy has barely grown if we adjust for immigration. Poland’s, however, has grown by more than 18% - and is set to overtake Japan in the early 2030s
2/3
2/3
When we think rationally about the data we do have, we simply cannot say that migrants as a whole are more likely to commit crime than everyone else.
We await better data. Until then, bad data and bad interpretations threaten to fill the void
www.thetimes.com/article/72b6...
We await better data. Until then, bad data and bad interpretations threaten to fill the void
www.thetimes.com/article/72b6...
Does anyone know whether migrants really commit more crimes?
News reports suggest asylum seekers are more likely to break the law than people born in the UK — so what does the data show?
www.thetimes.com
August 17, 2025 at 9:39 AM
When we think rationally about the data we do have, we simply cannot say that migrants as a whole are more likely to commit crime than everyone else.
We await better data. Until then, bad data and bad interpretations threaten to fill the void
www.thetimes.com/article/72b6...
We await better data. Until then, bad data and bad interpretations threaten to fill the void
www.thetimes.com/article/72b6...
Denominators matter. This is even more of an issue when looking at hard-to-measure populations. Take Afghans: depending on which denominator you use, they either have a wildly high crime rate or a more normal one.
This is the issue with “migrant crime league tables”
7/8
This is the issue with “migrant crime league tables”
7/8
August 17, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Denominators matter. This is even more of an issue when looking at hard-to-measure populations. Take Afghans: depending on which denominator you use, they either have a wildly high crime rate or a more normal one.
This is the issue with “migrant crime league tables”
7/8
This is the issue with “migrant crime league tables”
7/8
But there’s another adjustment we should make if we want to answer the question properly
Migrants are younger, and most crime is committed by young people. If migrants had the same crime as everyone else, we’d expect them to be responsible for between 15 and 22% of crimes!
6/8
Migrants are younger, and most crime is committed by young people. If migrants had the same crime as everyone else, we’d expect them to be responsible for between 15 and 22% of crimes!
6/8
August 17, 2025 at 9:39 AM
But there’s another adjustment we should make if we want to answer the question properly
Migrants are younger, and most crime is committed by young people. If migrants had the same crime as everyone else, we’d expect them to be responsible for between 15 and 22% of crimes!
6/8
Migrants are younger, and most crime is committed by young people. If migrants had the same crime as everyone else, we’d expect them to be responsible for between 15 and 22% of crimes!
6/8
In other words, it looks like this data actually shows convictions by a combination of either nationality OR country of birth.
This sounds like splitting hairs but it really matters. While foreign nationals are 11.2% of adults, about 17.3% of adults were born overseas…
5/8
This sounds like splitting hairs but it really matters. While foreign nationals are 11.2% of adults, about 17.3% of adults were born overseas…
5/8
August 17, 2025 at 9:39 AM
In other words, it looks like this data actually shows convictions by a combination of either nationality OR country of birth.
This sounds like splitting hairs but it really matters. While foreign nationals are 11.2% of adults, about 17.3% of adults were born overseas…
5/8
This sounds like splitting hairs but it really matters. While foreign nationals are 11.2% of adults, about 17.3% of adults were born overseas…
5/8
I don’t think that’s quite the right denominator. A closer look at the data released by the Home Office to the Centre for Migration Control, based on recorded nationality at time of arrest, has some oddities.
Namely, it lists several countries that no longer exist!
4/8
Namely, it lists several countries that no longer exist!
4/8
August 17, 2025 at 9:39 AM
I don’t think that’s quite the right denominator. A closer look at the data released by the Home Office to the Centre for Migration Control, based on recorded nationality at time of arrest, has some oddities.
Namely, it lists several countries that no longer exist!
4/8
Namely, it lists several countries that no longer exist!
4/8
Is 12.9% a lot? The ONS does provide a figure for the number of foreign nationals (people living in Britain but citizens of another country), and in 2023, it was 11.2% of adults.
But…
3/8
But…
3/8
August 17, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Is 12.9% a lot? The ONS does provide a figure for the number of foreign nationals (people living in Britain but citizens of another country), and in 2023, it was 11.2% of adults.
But…
3/8
But…
3/8
The Home Office hasn’t released crimes by immigration status, so we have to make do with “nationality” recorded on arrest
Home Office data suggests foreign nationals were behind 12.9% of criminal convictions in 2023. Now….
2/8
Home Office data suggests foreign nationals were behind 12.9% of criminal convictions in 2023. Now….
2/8
August 17, 2025 at 9:39 AM
The Home Office hasn’t released crimes by immigration status, so we have to make do with “nationality” recorded on arrest
Home Office data suggests foreign nationals were behind 12.9% of criminal convictions in 2023. Now….
2/8
Home Office data suggests foreign nationals were behind 12.9% of criminal convictions in 2023. Now….
2/8