Tom Kellogg
@tom-kellogg.bsky.social
Executive Director, @GeorgetownCAL. China hand, Hong Kong law expert, and Taiwan aficinado. Amateur Dylanologist, cinephile, and biblilophile.
I end with the thought that the end of the national security era will come someday, although it's hard to say exactly when. In the meantime, I fear that the on-the-ground situation in HK will get worse before it gets better - I am not optimistic abt the next 5 years, unfortunately! (4/end)
June 30, 2025 at 8:22 PM
I end with the thought that the end of the national security era will come someday, although it's hard to say exactly when. In the meantime, I fear that the on-the-ground situation in HK will get worse before it gets better - I am not optimistic abt the next 5 years, unfortunately! (4/end)
I try in the piece to suggest some developments we may see in the years to come: look, for example, for the HKG to push for new national security laws to deal with new problems and new targets. (3)
June 30, 2025 at 8:22 PM
I try in the piece to suggest some developments we may see in the years to come: look, for example, for the HKG to push for new national security laws to deal with new problems and new targets. (3)
Without doubt, the NSL has been catastrophic for human rights and the rule of law in HK; it has also dealt a death blow to HK's once-vaunted autonomy. (2)
June 30, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Without doubt, the NSL has been catastrophic for human rights and the rule of law in HK; it has also dealt a death blow to HK's once-vaunted autonomy. (2)
I will be following this case very closely, as will other experts and orgs. The handling of this case will be a key marker of the state of the rule of law in HK - further decline or perhaps (finally) some pushback from the courts? We will have to wait and see... (9/end)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
I will be following this case very closely, as will other experts and orgs. The handling of this case will be a key marker of the state of the rule of law in HK - further decline or perhaps (finally) some pushback from the courts? We will have to wait and see... (9/end)
There could well be consequences for failing to toe the line in this case. But now the courts have no choice - they are being asked to do something truly awful, something so fundamentally beyond the pale. They must say no. If they don't, expect more cases like this in the months to come. (8)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
There could well be consequences for failing to toe the line in this case. But now the courts have no choice - they are being asked to do something truly awful, something so fundamentally beyond the pale. They must say no. If they don't, expect more cases like this in the months to come. (8)
If the HKG moves forward with this prosecution, the courts should finally and unequivocally say no: they should refuse to sign off on this latest distortion of the rule of law, this latest effort to subvert constitutional human rights protections. This is a line that cannot be crossed. (7)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
If the HKG moves forward with this prosecution, the courts should finally and unequivocally say no: they should refuse to sign off on this latest distortion of the rule of law, this latest effort to subvert constitutional human rights protections. This is a line that cannot be crossed. (7)
The charging of Kwok Yin-sang represents a new and deeply troubling development: up to now, no relative of an overseas activist has been charged with a nat sec crime. An important line has been crossed, to the HKG's eternal shame. The parallels with Mainland China are all too clear. (6)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
The charging of Kwok Yin-sang represents a new and deeply troubling development: up to now, no relative of an overseas activist has been charged with a nat sec crime. An important line has been crossed, to the HKG's eternal shame. The parallels with Mainland China are all too clear. (6)
No doubt, the courts are under significant political pressure from the government. But there needs to be a rethink by the courts - can this blank check for the government continue? Human rights protections have been abandoned in nat sec cases, and public confidence in the courts has declined. (5)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
No doubt, the courts are under significant political pressure from the government. But there needs to be a rethink by the courts - can this blank check for the government continue? Human rights protections have been abandoned in nat sec cases, and public confidence in the courts has declined. (5)
The ongoing crackdown has put HK's courts in a difficult spot: how to respond? Thus far at least, the courts have given the HKG (almost) everything it has asked for - the govt has an almost-perfect conviction rate, and a near-perfect record on procedural questions as well. (4)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
The ongoing crackdown has put HK's courts in a difficult spot: how to respond? Thus far at least, the courts have given the HKG (almost) everything it has asked for - the govt has an almost-perfect conviction rate, and a near-perfect record on procedural questions as well. (4)
HK's once free and wide-open civil society has been dramatically reordered, and a robust free press has been put on a very short leash. The once-proud Legislative Council is now a rubber stamp for government initiatives, including new national security laws that further restrict basic rights. (3)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
HK's once free and wide-open civil society has been dramatically reordered, and a robust free press has been put on a very short leash. The once-proud Legislative Council is now a rubber stamp for government initiatives, including new national security laws that further restrict basic rights. (3)
Working closely with @ericyhlai.bsky.social, I have been tracking the implementation of HK's draconian NSL for almost five years now. Since then, nearly three hundred activists, politicians, lawyers, journalists, and everyday citizens have been imprisoned under the law. (2)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Working closely with @ericyhlai.bsky.social, I have been tracking the implementation of HK's draconian NSL for almost five years now. Since then, nearly three hundred activists, politicians, lawyers, journalists, and everyday citizens have been imprisoned under the law. (2)
I will also take Lepore's (implicit) advice to check out the Penguin 100 -- had seen them in bookstores before, but had not really given them any serious attention! We all need the consolations of literature (and music, and film, and yes even journalism) these days! (7/end)
April 30, 2025 at 5:59 PM
I will also take Lepore's (implicit) advice to check out the Penguin 100 -- had seen them in bookstores before, but had not really given them any serious attention! We all need the consolations of literature (and music, and film, and yes even journalism) these days! (7/end)
Last but not least, I'm also 100pp into @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social and @dkthomp.bsky.social's Abundance -- really enjoying it. I find it to be an antidote as well - let's have an informed conversation about the problems we face, rather than lots of attacks and corruption and awfulness! (6)
April 30, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Last but not least, I'm also 100pp into @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social and @dkthomp.bsky.social's Abundance -- really enjoying it. I find it to be an antidote as well - let's have an informed conversation about the problems we face, rather than lots of attacks and corruption and awfulness! (6)
For bookish escapism, I read and liked Han Kang's Vegetarian, but its epic brutality made me wonder: is this the literary escape for this moment? I'm not sure, but I'm glad I read it. (5)
April 30, 2025 at 5:59 PM
For bookish escapism, I read and liked Han Kang's Vegetarian, but its epic brutality made me wonder: is this the literary escape for this moment? I'm not sure, but I'm glad I read it. (5)
And don't forget movies, the primary escape mechanism of our time! Summer of Soul is at the top of my re-watch list, as the The Taking of Pelham 123 (1974 version, currently on Criterion).
April 30, 2025 at 5:59 PM
And don't forget movies, the primary escape mechanism of our time! Summer of Soul is at the top of my re-watch list, as the The Taking of Pelham 123 (1974 version, currently on Criterion).
But there's no doubt, we all need the consolations of culture. I recently re-listened to Elijah Wald's masterful Dylan Goes Electric, which took me back for a few days to a different time, and a different place, and a focus on some of the best music ever written and performed. Wonderful solace. (3)
April 30, 2025 at 5:59 PM
But there's no doubt, we all need the consolations of culture. I recently re-listened to Elijah Wald's masterful Dylan Goes Electric, which took me back for a few days to a different time, and a different place, and a focus on some of the best music ever written and performed. Wonderful solace. (3)
I understand the need to turn away from the news -- we all must do it from time to time these days, to keep our sanity. But for me, there's also a need to try not to look away, to see what our government is doing, and to try to understand. All of this is part of figuring out how to respond! (2)
April 30, 2025 at 5:59 PM
I understand the need to turn away from the news -- we all must do it from time to time these days, to keep our sanity. But for me, there's also a need to try not to look away, to see what our government is doing, and to try to understand. All of this is part of figuring out how to respond! (2)
don't forget the need to play to the domestic nationalist audience, which also likes the "get tough" rhetoric and the references to the Chairman. On the first prong, another parallel with today's GOP...
April 28, 2025 at 1:43 PM
don't forget the need to play to the domestic nationalist audience, which also likes the "get tough" rhetoric and the references to the Chairman. On the first prong, another parallel with today's GOP...
In any case, ES' piece is worth a read - very helpful in showing how we got to this moment. it's no criticism to say that she doesn't have a solution to the current FP crisis - none of us do! that said, many of her solutions are relevant to a rebuilding phase, if/when we get there... (11/end)
March 21, 2025 at 8:18 PM
In any case, ES' piece is worth a read - very helpful in showing how we got to this moment. it's no criticism to say that she doesn't have a solution to the current FP crisis - none of us do! that said, many of her solutions are relevant to a rebuilding phase, if/when we get there... (11/end)
GOP Congressional voices are either (a) silent or (b) half-heartedly suggesting that Trump's policy is meant to be some sort of tough love, eg for UKR and Europe. Not pretty, to say the least. (10)
March 21, 2025 at 8:18 PM
GOP Congressional voices are either (a) silent or (b) half-heartedly suggesting that Trump's policy is meant to be some sort of tough love, eg for UKR and Europe. Not pretty, to say the least. (10)
We're now witnessing the turbo-charging of many of the trends that ES talks about in the piece - US FP has reached a crisis point more quickly than I thought possible, with many key allies starting to think through what their FP should look like in the absence of US security guarantees. (9)
March 21, 2025 at 8:18 PM
We're now witnessing the turbo-charging of many of the trends that ES talks about in the piece - US FP has reached a crisis point more quickly than I thought possible, with many key allies starting to think through what their FP should look like in the absence of US security guarantees. (9)
I will have to think more about the question of elites and the lack of public engagement with foreign policy q's. It's true, but it creates problems - AID (eg) is (or was?) ever-vulnerable, in part b/c it doesn't have a public constituency. Once one party abandons it, it is in mortal danger. (8)
March 21, 2025 at 8:18 PM
I will have to think more about the question of elites and the lack of public engagement with foreign policy q's. It's true, but it creates problems - AID (eg) is (or was?) ever-vulnerable, in part b/c it doesn't have a public constituency. Once one party abandons it, it is in mortal danger. (8)