Toby Nangle
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tobyn.bsky.social
Toby Nangle
@tobyn.bsky.social
FT Alphaville reporter. Ex-“veteran” fund manager. Resolution Foundation Assoc. Baring Foundation Trustee.
And nothing to stop EM Local yields trading through DM bond yields for other reasons.
November 11, 2025 at 8:22 AM
I guess it makes some sense if you reckon: a) spiralling debt in one or more big DMs lead to debt monetisation, w/ intl bond mkts collapsing; b) mkt dynamic doesn’t spill over into EM local.
November 11, 2025 at 8:10 AM
The whole thing is written on the premise that Local Currency Yield = f(Debt/GDP).

This is demonstrably false as the author knows.
November 11, 2025 at 8:07 AM
Haha - weird formatting thing that sometimes happens when popped into a particular section of FT homepage.
November 10, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Just for fun I downloaded the August Press Gazette numbers and charted them here. I've removed the log scale for effect. public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
Press Gazette numbers
A Flourish data visualization by Toby Nangle
public.flourish.studio
November 10, 2025 at 10:46 AM
A lot of the messiness is due to small sample sizes. Marimekko charting makes this clearer:
November 10, 2025 at 10:36 AM
How does the 10yr record look across agencies?

Messy?
November 10, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Looking at S&P's default study, cumulative default rates for lower ratings have been higher over both short and long time horizons, which is exactly what you’d hope
November 10, 2025 at 10:32 AM
Qn as to what to do with legacy of poor design has been explored failedarchitecture.com/architecture...
Architecture After Excess: The Palaces of Saddam’s Baghdad - Failed Architecture
In times of anxiety and constriction, despots build. But what to do with the architectural heritage they leave behind?
failedarchitecture.com
November 6, 2025 at 10:59 PM
How many analysts does each agency have, and how many issuers does each analyst rate?
November 6, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Global HQs of the 4 largest raters of corporations
November 6, 2025 at 6:21 PM
#1 rater of corporate issuers in the world? S&P

#2? Egan-Jones
November 6, 2025 at 6:19 PM
National speed limits? Optional. Class C drugs? Be discreet. Parking on yellow lines? Just be quick. Honestly don’t know.
November 6, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Maybe being a nation of modest law-breakers is a good thing? Maybe the idea that every law should be obeyed breeds a kind of servility to some potential future bad leader with autocratic tendencies?
November 6, 2025 at 6:13 PM
And tbh, I’m pretty much totally fine with this outcome. Apart from the notion it inculcates that laws are just, like, your opinion.
November 6, 2025 at 6:11 PM
On motorways, pretty much everyone drives like ‘yeah, 70-75mph is fine, though on a clear day with little traffic 80mph is ok too’.
November 6, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Existence of GPS does make me wonder whether it’s time to reappraise the national speed limit.
November 6, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Boston Fed reckons disconnect of realised and expected inflation is the fault of Other
November 6, 2025 at 3:22 PM