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Texas National Security Review
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A rigorous, policy-relevant journal on national & international security, brought to you by The University of Texas System | tnsr.org
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Today, TNSR honors all US veterans for their service and sacrifice. We particularly recognize the veterans within our community of readers, authors, and contributors. Your experience and dedication profoundly enrich the vital discussions on national security and foreign policy. #VeteransDay
Veterans Day: Honoring All Who Served | Texas National Security Review
November 11, 2025 at 5:09 PM
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Our directors, the Clements Center's Joseph Maguire and the Strauss Center's Adam Klein, introduce our new design & vision for TNSR and its role in public life. They also preview the articles in our winter issue.

Read their introduction: tnsr.org/2025/11/the-...
"The Changing Face of War—And of Our Work" by Adam Klein and Joseph Maguire | Foundation article
November 10, 2025 at 8:01 PM
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Are U.S. export controls on AI chips working?

DeepSeek AI suggests maybe not. Jennifer Lind (@proflind.bsky.social) explains how China achieved a breakthrough they were not supposed to be able to accomplish.
November 6, 2025 at 5:28 PM
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𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿!

Today, we’re introducing the new face of the Texas National Security Review. Our new logo, fonts, and colors are designed to be bolder, clearer, and more accessible.
TNSR | Texas National Security Review
November 5, 2025 at 5:18 PM
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Are today's tech export controls against China just a repeat of the Cold War?

Not quite. It was "Hard then Harder Now," argue @dartmouthartsci.bsky.social scholars Jennifer Lind – @proflind.bsky.social and Michael Mastanduno.
Cold War Lessons for Export Controls Against China with Jennifer Lind and Michael Mastanduno
November 4, 2025 at 5:21 PM
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How does the Trump administration's "unpredictability" impact US credibility with allies?

@laurensukin.bsky.social from @ox.ac.uk and @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social joined us to discuss the current global nuclear landscape wherein she described the "nexus point" for European partners.
October 22, 2025 at 9:27 PM
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The old nuclear rulebook is out of date. From China's growing arsenal to a "crisis of faith" in US alliances, the world is facing a new, more complex nuclear landscape.

Our discussion on all this and more with
@laurensukin.bsky.social and Nicola Leveringhaus: tnsr.org/horns-of-a-d...
Navigating the New Nuclear Map with Lauren Sukin and Nicola Leveringhaus
October 21, 2025 at 8:58 PM
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Chris Walsh from the George W. Bush Institute joined us for our most recent podcast episode and shared a long-term strategy to counter oppressive regimes by empowering the people they rule.
October 9, 2025 at 5:04 PM
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Has US policy toward North Korea been a failure? In our latest podcast episode, Igor Khrestin and Chris Walsh from the George W. Bush Institute break down sanctions, trilateral security, and why human rights must be tied to policy moving forward.
"Addressing the North Korean Conundrum" with Igor Khrestin and Chris Walsh
October 7, 2025 at 8:02 PM
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The TNSR leadership team recently met with our friends at @utexaspress.bsky.social, whose tireless efforts ensure that our work is published and distributed. We would also be remiss if we didn't acknowledge the support of our directors at the Clements Center and Strauss Center. Thank you!
October 3, 2025 at 5:49 PM
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How does Latin America’s nuclear-free zone offer lessons for global nonproliferation? @jluisrodriguez.com explores the region’s unique approach to managing nuclear risks.

📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...
"Latin America and Contemporary Nuclear Challenges" by J. Luis Rodriguez Latin American approaches to managing nuclear risks emphasize communal efforts promoting arms control, disarmament, and the irreversibility of nuclear nonproliferation. For these countries, nuclear weapons are not necessary for their security but, instead, represent the primary source of nuclear risks, regardless of who possesses them or how a possessor behaves. As a result, these countries have decided not to acquire these arsenals—but this decision is not automatic. Latin American countries have used the regional and global nonproliferation regimes to lock in this calculus and secure their access to peaceful atomic technologies. It would be a mistake, however, to take these institutions for granted and assume that they will keep managing nuclear risk automatically. The regional approaches may face challenges stemming from the intrinsic difficulties of utilizing peaceful nuclear technologies, the modernization efforts of nuclear powers, and escalating geopolitical tensions among great powers, especially if arms races extend to Latin America.
September 30, 2025 at 4:50 PM
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Does NATO have a credible nuclear deterrent—or does consensus decision-making undermine it? Jacklyn Majnemer dives into the tensions between credibility and alliance unity.

📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...
"A Nuclear Veto? The Credibility–Consensus Trade-Off and NATO Nuclear Use Procedures" by Jacklyn Majnemer Do NATO allies have a veto over the use of American nuclear weapons stationed in Europe? While the alliance has publicly indicated that a NATO nuclear mission would require consensus approval from the Nuclear Planning Group, NATO allies have limited practical means to veto American unilateral use of these weapons. The authorization procedures within NATO for the use of American nuclear weapons stationed in Europe pose inherent trade-offs between credibility and consensus. Meaningful consensus decision-making undermines the credibility of the American nuclear weapons on European soil, but enhancing credibility raises the risk of American nuclear use emanating from Europe that is unwanted by NATO allies. Given the recent erosion of the security environment and allies’ trust in the US, there are reasons to think that the tension between credibility and consensus might become more salient within NATO.
September 30, 2025 at 4:50 PM
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From Iran’s nuclear ambitions to great power competition over energy, this essay by @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and Jane Darby Menton examines the complex nuclear dynamics shaping the Middle East and North Africa.

📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...
"MENA at the Threshold? Proliferation Risks and Great Power Competition" by Nicole Grajewski and Jane Darby Menton This article situates the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the global nuclear order, emphasizing how the region has both challenged and spurred adaptations in international nuclear governance for decades. It then examines two pressing contemporary issues: the uncertain trajectory of Iran’s nuclear program after Israeli and US military strikes in June 2025, and the anticipated expansion of nuclear energy across MENA, which could also result in more countries with capabilities that would be conducive to pursuing the bomb. Both developments underscore the difficulties of managing nuclear latency in a conflict-prone region, where tensions among local actors inflect nuclear decision-making. While there are opportunities to mitigate these challenges, and principles that policymakers should follow in addressing them, nuclear aspirations are likely to remain a prominent feature of MENA’s security landscape so long as underlying tensions between regional actors remain unresolved.
September 30, 2025 at 4:50 PM
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How is U.S.—China rivalry fueling a dangerous cascade of nuclear proliferation across Southern Asia? @debak.bsky.social explores the ripple effects of AUKUS and regional competition.

📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...
"Cascades of Competition: Southern Asia, the Indo-Pacific, and AUKUS" by Debak Das Nuclear stability in Southern Asia is being shaped by different layers of competition in the Indo-Pacific. This article highlights two dynamics that are shaping nuclear competition in the region. The first, within Southern Asia, is states finding space to escalate at lower levels of conflict to address nuclear and military asymmetry. Pakistan is seeking to create space to escalate at lower levels of conflict against India, while India is doing the same against Pakistan on one side and China on the other. The second dynamic is a cascade of reactionary vertical proliferation that is occurring in the Indo-Pacific as a result of China and the United States’ strategic competition. While Washington and Beijing are responding to each other’s nuclear arsenals, India is responding to China’s arsenal, and Pakistan is responding to India’s nuclear modernization. The technology transfers and submarine proliferation in the Indo-Pacific precipitated by AUKUS are intensifying this dynamic.
September 30, 2025 at 4:50 PM
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China’s nuclear expansion isn’t just about strategy—it’s deeply tied to domestic politics under Xi Jinping. Learn how centralization and internal priorities are shaping Beijing’s nuclear decisions in this essay by Nicola Leveringhaus.

📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...
"The Domestic Politics Behind China’s Strategic Force Improvements" by Nicola Leveringhaus China’s nuclear expansion is occurring at a time of major domestic political change, with implications for its nuclear weapons strategy. Domestic changes of note include defense reforms, a contraction and politicization of China’s strategic community, as well as sustained top-down interest in commemoration of China’s nuclear weapons past, such as the “Two Bombs, One Satellite” program. These domestic political changes represent an unprecedented elevation of the national, social, and political value of China’s nuclear weapons by the CCP in the Xi era. How should others in the region and beyond best respond to these changes? The article ends with some thoughts on foreign state engagement with China as Beijing expands and elevates the domestic importance of its nuclear arsenal.
September 30, 2025 at 4:50 PM
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Why is South Korea losing confidence in U.S. extended deterrence? @doyoung-lee.bsky.social unpacks how Pyongyang’s aggressive nuclear posture is driving a wedge between allies.

📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...
"Growing Divergence: North Korea’s Evolving Nuclear Strategy and the US–South Korea Alliance" by Do Young Lee In response to North Korea’s escalating nuclear and missile threats, the US and South Korea have taken measures to reinforce extended deterrence: the Washington Declaration, the Nuclear Consultative Group, and the enhanced visibility of US strategic assets around the Korean Peninsula. Despite these steps, South Korea’s public confidence in US extended deterrence commitments has declined. This article argues that this decline is rooted in growing divergence between US and South Korean interpretations of North Korea’s evolving nuclear strategy and the appropriate responses to it.
September 30, 2025 at 4:50 PM
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How are alliances like AUKUS and cooperation between Russia, China, and North Korea reshaping the nuclear order? @laurensukin.bsky.social and @rohanmukherjee.bsky.social introduce the essays and explore the effects of domestic politics and global competition.

📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...
"The Evolving Global Landscape of Nuclear Security" by Lauren Sukin and Rohan Mukherjee
September 30, 2025 at 4:50 PM
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Our latest piece explores a multi-pronged strategy that includes diplomatic engagement, sanctions, and military options, while also considering the growing alliances between North Korea, Russia, China, and Iran.
"US Policy Toward North Korea: Quo Vadis?" by Cory Gardner, Igor Khrestin, and Chris Walsh. Quote: "The United States cannot simply give up and accept decades of failure as permanent."
September 27, 2025 at 5:01 PM
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Jeff Friedman explores how overconfidence and other cognitive biases impair the judgment of even the most seasoned national security professionals in our latest podcast episode.
September 26, 2025 at 4:14 PM
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What does it mean to contain North Korea in today’s geopolitical landscape? Former US Senator Cory Gardner co-authors our latest article exploring the challenges, strategies, and stakes for US policy toward Pyongyang.
"As the Trump administration recalibrates America’s global priorities, containing Pyongyang should be at the top of its agenda." Quote from "US Policy Toward North Korea: Quo Vadis?" by Cory Gardner, Igor Khrestin, and Chris Walsh
September 25, 2025 at 5:01 PM
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In the quest to deny China advanced military capabilities with export controls, Jennifer Lind (@proflind.bsky.social) and Michael Mastanduno warn that US action to expand the control yard could backfire.
"In preparing for the long haul, the more US officials resist the inevitable temptation to expand the control yard, the better their chances at keeping the supplier coalition together . . ." quote by Jennifer Lind and Michael Mastanduno from ". . . CoCom's Lessons and the Challenge of Crafting Effective Export Controls Against China"
September 17, 2025 at 7:55 PM
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The US is trying a "high fence around a small yard" approach to tech controls on China. Will it work?

@proflind.bsky.social and Mastanduno argue that the lessons from the Cold War's CoCom suggest a tough road ahead, with risks to alliances and long-term effectiveness.

tnsr.org/2025/09/hard...
“CoCom did not prevent the USSR from accessing key technologies. The current regime is similarly porous, and China is a more adept target.” quote from ". . . CoCom’s Lessons and the Challenge of Crafting Effective Export Controls Against China" by Jennifer Lind and Michael Mastanduno
September 16, 2025 at 8:09 PM
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In the high-stakes world of national security, overconfidence can lead to disastrous outcomes. In Jeffrey Friedman's latest TNSR article, he reveals how just a little bit of training can help address this issue.

#NationalSecurity #CognitiveBias #Overconfidence #Leadership
"If just two minutes of training can substantially mitigate national security officials’ overconfidence, then national security bureaucracies can almost certainly identify and combat cognitive biases at large scales." Quote by Jeffrey Friedman from "The World Is More Uncertain than You Think . . ."
September 12, 2025 at 5:03 PM
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Mariya Grinberg discusses her view that trade can only dissuade long existentially threatening conflicts and not necessarily prevent wars among great powers with secure second-strike nuclear capabilities. #nationalsecurity #deterrence #trade #war
September 11, 2025 at 5:04 PM
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In high-stakes environments, we rely on expert judgment. But how reliable is that judgment?

Jeffrey Friedman tackles this question by assessing cognitive bias among 2,000 national security officials. His findings remind us that expertise is not a shield against overconfidence.
"Despite having strong incentives to make accurate assessments of uncertainty, national security officials share biases that are widespread among the general public." Quote by Jeffrey A. Friedman from "The World Is More Uncertain than You Think . . ."
September 10, 2025 at 5:23 PM