TMC Research
@tmcresearch.bsky.social
TMC Research is a unit of The Milwaukee Co. (themilwaukeecompany.com), a wealth manager and investment adviser to The Brinsmere ETFs, a pair of systematically risk-managed asset allocation funds: thebrinsmerefunds.com
An early Christmas present? The S&P 500 Index is trading at a new record high:
December 23, 2025 at 7:46 PM
An early Christmas present? The S&P 500 Index is trading at a new record high:
The delayed US Q3 GDP report beat expectations, posting a strong 4.3% increase -- highest in 2 years. In some respects this is old news--nowcasts have been anticipating a solid rise. The real question is how Q4 compares amid signs of a slowdown in hiring.
December 23, 2025 at 3:21 PM
The delayed US Q3 GDP report beat expectations, posting a strong 4.3% increase -- highest in 2 years. In some respects this is old news--nowcasts have been anticipating a solid rise. The real question is how Q4 compares amid signs of a slowdown in hiring.
Will Inflation Uncertainty Remain A Speed Bump For Rate Cuts In 2026? www.tmcresearch.com/p/will-infla...
December 23, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Will Inflation Uncertainty Remain A Speed Bump For Rate Cuts In 2026? www.tmcresearch.com/p/will-infla...
Gold (GLD) has fully recovered from its recent pullback and is breaking out to a new high:
December 22, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Gold (GLD) has fully recovered from its recent pullback and is breaking out to a new high:
Small cap stocks (IWM) have narrowed the performance gap vis a vis large caps (SPY), but lesser-size shares are still on track to trail their larger-cap brethren for 2025:
December 19, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Small cap stocks (IWM) have narrowed the performance gap vis a vis large caps (SPY), but lesser-size shares are still on track to trail their larger-cap brethren for 2025:
Yesterday's softer than expected inflation data for Nov gives the Fed more space, in theory, for cutting rates at next month's policy meeting. But Fed funds futures are pricing high odds for no change: cmegroup.com/markets/inte... Betting markets agree: polymarket.com/event/fed-de...
December 19, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Yesterday's softer than expected inflation data for Nov gives the Fed more space, in theory, for cutting rates at next month's policy meeting. But Fed funds futures are pricing high odds for no change: cmegroup.com/markets/inte... Betting markets agree: polymarket.com/event/fed-de...
Disinflation looks stronger: US consumer inflation eased more than expected in Nov, the Bureau of Labor Stats reports. Headline CPI dipped to a 2.7% annual pace. Core CPI, a clearer measure of the trend, slipped to 2.6%, well below the 3.0% rate expected: www.cnbc.com/2025/12/18/c...
December 18, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Disinflation looks stronger: US consumer inflation eased more than expected in Nov, the Bureau of Labor Stats reports. Headline CPI dipped to a 2.7% annual pace. Core CPI, a clearer measure of the trend, slipped to 2.6%, well below the 3.0% rate expected: www.cnbc.com/2025/12/18/c...
Widening Spread Between Fed Funds Rate and 30-Year Treasury Yield Signals Rising Policy Risk: www.tmcresearch.com/p/widening-s...
December 17, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Widening Spread Between Fed Funds Rate and 30-Year Treasury Yield Signals Rising Policy Risk: www.tmcresearch.com/p/widening-s...
US economic activity slowed in December, dipping to a 6mo low, according to the Composite PMI, a survey-based GDP proxy. The current reading reflects moderate growth, but suggests the recent pickup in output has downshifted at the end of the year: shorturl.at/Qfor2
December 16, 2025 at 6:25 PM
US economic activity slowed in December, dipping to a 6mo low, according to the Composite PMI, a survey-based GDP proxy. The current reading reflects moderate growth, but suggests the recent pickup in output has downshifted at the end of the year: shorturl.at/Qfor2
US payrolls fell sharply in Oct, followed by a moderate rebound in November, the Labor Dept reports. The Oct slide was due to a steep drop in govt jobs during the shutdown. The Nov recovery suggests that the labor market's slowdown may be stabilizing:
December 16, 2025 at 1:50 PM
US payrolls fell sharply in Oct, followed by a moderate rebound in November, the Labor Dept reports. The Oct slide was due to a steep drop in govt jobs during the shutdown. The Nov recovery suggests that the labor market's slowdown may be stabilizing:
Tomorrow's delayed US payrolls report for November will be widely read as the govt continues to play catch-up with delayed numbers due to the shutdown. (Oct payrolls, btw, is lost to history due to shutdown complications.) The consensus forecast expects a sharp slowdown in hiring for Nov:
December 15, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Tomorrow's delayed US payrolls report for November will be widely read as the govt continues to play catch-up with delayed numbers due to the shutdown. (Oct payrolls, btw, is lost to history due to shutdown complications.) The consensus forecast expects a sharp slowdown in hiring for Nov:
One of this year's quiet winners among the major asset classes: EM govt bonds, unhedged re: f/x. EMLC isn't the top-performer in 2025, at least so far, but it's now outpeforming the S&P 500 (SPY) this year as it continues to grind higher:
December 15, 2025 at 3:31 PM
One of this year's quiet winners among the major asset classes: EM govt bonds, unhedged re: f/x. EMLC isn't the top-performer in 2025, at least so far, but it's now outpeforming the S&P 500 (SPY) this year as it continues to grind higher:
Another revised, solid nowcast for GDP in Q3 -- Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimating +3.6%. Official report scheduled for Dec 23, a 2mo delay due to the govt shutdown. The debate, however, still centers on Q4, which looks considerably weaker: shorturl.at/gQ5XS
December 11, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Another revised, solid nowcast for GDP in Q3 -- Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimating +3.6%. Official report scheduled for Dec 23, a 2mo delay due to the govt shutdown. The debate, however, still centers on Q4, which looks considerably weaker: shorturl.at/gQ5XS
There was concern that the sharp drop in Thanksgiving-week jobless claims was distorted by the holiday. Today's post-holiday update suggests those concerns are valid as claims shot back up to a 3mo+ high. Claims are still in a range via recent history, at least for now.
December 11, 2025 at 2:53 PM
There was concern that the sharp drop in Thanksgiving-week jobless claims was distorted by the holiday. Today's post-holiday update suggests those concerns are valid as claims shot back up to a 3mo+ high. Claims are still in a range via recent history, at least for now.
The US Economy May Be Slowing, But Recession Risk Remains Low: www.tmcresearch.com/p/the-us-eco...
December 10, 2025 at 2:32 PM
The US Economy May Be Slowing, But Recession Risk Remains Low: www.tmcresearch.com/p/the-us-eco...
Is it premature to rule out the possibility that the hiring slowdown will stabilize at a softer but still-solid pace? Yes, or so today's update on Oct job openings suggests: Openings ticked up, holding at a middling range vs recent history, moderately above pre-pandemic pace:
December 9, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Is it premature to rule out the possibility that the hiring slowdown will stabilize at a softer but still-solid pace? Yes, or so today's update on Oct job openings suggests: Openings ticked up, holding at a middling range vs recent history, moderately above pre-pandemic pace:
Is a post-holiday hangover brewing for inflation? “In the first half of next year, we are concerned that consumers are going to start to see the price increases become a little more broad based," says a senior managing director at Telsey Advisory Group: shorturl.at/7tdU1
December 9, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Is a post-holiday hangover brewing for inflation? “In the first half of next year, we are concerned that consumers are going to start to see the price increases become a little more broad based," says a senior managing director at Telsey Advisory Group: shorturl.at/7tdU1
The Treasury market is getting anxious ahead of Wed's Fed meeting, which is expected to deliver a 3rd straight rate cut. But the calm waters in the bond market of late are churning anew as the 10yr yield shoots up this morning to the highest level since September:
December 8, 2025 at 3:27 PM
The Treasury market is getting anxious ahead of Wed's Fed meeting, which is expected to deliver a 3rd straight rate cut. But the calm waters in the bond market of late are churning anew as the 10yr yield shoots up this morning to the highest level since September:
How low/tight can they go? "That strong 2025 can largely be attributed to solid earnings and to a Federal Reserve that came through with two rate cuts — and will almost certainly cut again this week." shorturl.at/jrzrS
December 8, 2025 at 3:04 PM
How low/tight can they go? "That strong 2025 can largely be attributed to solid earnings and to a Federal Reserve that came through with two rate cuts — and will almost certainly cut again this week." shorturl.at/jrzrS
Markets Expect Another Fed Rate Cut This Week: www.tmcresearch.com/p/markets-ex...
December 8, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Markets Expect Another Fed Rate Cut This Week: www.tmcresearch.com/p/markets-ex...
The delayed PCE inflation report for September finally arrived and it shows a downshift in the annual rate to 2.8%, lowest since May. The update gives the Fed a bit more cover for cutting rates next week: www.bea.gov/news/2025/pe...
December 5, 2025 at 3:09 PM
The delayed PCE inflation report for September finally arrived and it shows a downshift in the annual rate to 2.8%, lowest since May. The update gives the Fed a bit more cover for cutting rates next week: www.bea.gov/news/2025/pe...
The labor market is slowing, but layoffs remain mutedd, as today's weekly update on jobless claims suggests. New filings for unemployment benefits fell below 200,000 for the first time in more than a year:
December 4, 2025 at 2:49 PM
The labor market is slowing, but layoffs remain mutedd, as today's weekly update on jobless claims suggests. New filings for unemployment benefits fell below 200,000 for the first time in more than a year:
The ADP employment data for November strengthens the case for expecting a Fed rate cut next week. Payrolls declined 32,000 last month, extending recent weakness. The drop was broad-based and led by small firms, ADP advises: adpemploymentreport.com
December 3, 2025 at 3:13 PM
The ADP employment data for November strengthens the case for expecting a Fed rate cut next week. Payrolls declined 32,000 last month, extending recent weakness. The drop was broad-based and led by small firms, ADP advises: adpemploymentreport.com
Clean Energy Powers Back: Alt-Energy ETFs Surge in 2025 Comeback: www.tmcresearch.com/p/clean-ener...
December 3, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Clean Energy Powers Back: Alt-Energy ETFs Surge in 2025 Comeback: www.tmcresearch.com/p/clean-ener...
US economic activity still looks robust, based on the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate. When the Q3 GDP report is released, eventually, it's expected to show output rose 3.9%: www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
December 2, 2025 at 2:58 PM
US economic activity still looks robust, based on the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate. When the Q3 GDP report is released, eventually, it's expected to show output rose 3.9%: www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...