Tim van Gelder
Tim van Gelder
@timvangelder.bsky.social
Motivated reasoner
No it doesn't. "Low confidence" in the intelligence community is a term of art, contrasting with estimate probability. Confidence can be low for many reasons, including unreliable sources. For example, this is how it is explained in a National Intelligence Estimate
www.dni.gov/files/docume...
January 26, 2025 at 8:49 AM