I just finished reviewing my 2025 predictions (how do you think I did grading myself?) www.timothychambers.net/2024/12/2… Now it’s time to make some bets for 2026. I do this not to prove how great my prognostication muscles are, but to shine a spotlight on trends I think are vital, spur discussions, and give some attention to projects that have earned it. As always, I try to make these as quantifiable, verifiable and crisp as I can. Here goes: 🌱 MILD Safe bets — would be surprising if these DON’T happen. ▶️ Bluesky will cross 60 million registered users in 2026. Growth will slow from 2024’s explosive pace but remain steady, driven by continued X dissatisfaction and improved features. ▶️ The ActivityPub Fediverse (excluding Threads) will cross 15 million registered users, monthly active users (excluding will plateau around 2-3 million. Another good year in terms of stable base, but no big waves of new users. Both Bluesky and Fediverse growth won’t come from big waves of migration this year. ▶️ Any smaller waves from X/Twitter or from a newly bought TikTok will benefit Meta (Threads/IG), BlueSky, and Fediverse in that order. I see nothing that would change that prediction that was true last year, too. ▶️ Threads will pass 500 million monthly active users and remain the largest ActivityPub-adjacent platform by a wide margin. But see the next prediction: ▶️ Threads federation will remain partial, and opt-in through all of 2026. Full two-way federation will NOT ship in 2026 but may move from about 90 percent there, to 95 percent done, inching forward but not finalized and prioritized as a feature. As Manton wrote, that’s better than fully closed, and better than them stripping it out. (which they might do but I’m predicting not) My bet: the status quo continues. www.manton.org/2025/12/1… ▶️ Ghost’s ActivityPub integration will bring 75,000+ new federated accounts to the Fediverse and Ghost will finish 2026 in the top 10 Fediverse server software by MAU. ▶️ WordPress-based federated accounts will cross 50,000 as measured by FediDB. Currently at approximately 26,000 accounts across 12,700 servers, the WordPress-to-Fediverse pipeline becomes a meaningful growth contributor. 🔥 MEDIUM-SPICEY Plausible bets — could go either way, but evidence points toward yes. ▶️ BridgyFed will shift to “opt-out” for Bluesky users bridging to ActivityPub — and the discourse will be far less contentious than the 2024 debates predicted. Cross-protocol interoperability quietly normalizes. ▶️ At least one fully independent ATProto stack — PDS, Relay, and AppView operating without dependency on Bluesky PBC infrastructure — will achieve viability in 2026, meaning it has paying customers or sustainable funding. This will be the year ATProto proves (or fails to prove) it can exist beyond Bluesky-the-company. ▶️ Mastodon gGmbH will hit key sustainability milestones in 2026. Their hosting revenue model will exceed internal targets, the new organizational structure will unlock additional grant funding (beyond NGI/NLnet), and the pace of Mastodon development will noticeably accelerate — shipping more significant features in 2026 than in the previous two years combined. ▶️ Bluesky PBC will raise another round of funding in 2026 and announce more details on a proposed business model. Following their $15M Series A (October 2024), the company will close a larger round to extend runway. The announced business model will NOT be advertising-based. I’d expect subscriptions, marketplace fees, or enterprise services. ▶️ The first “ATProto-native” social app that is NOT microblogging will cross 100,000 users. Whether it’s Frontpage (link aggregation), Leaflet (long-form), Smoke Signal, or something new — the ATmosphere diversifies beyond Bluesky-the-app. ▶️ Flipboard’s Surf app will launch its 1.0 version in 2026 and cross 1 million downloads across iOS and Android by year end, with 100,000+ monthly active users. It will become the most-downloaded dedicated Open Social Web client, surpassing Mastodon’s official app and Graysky. ▶️ Fedify will power the federation layer for at least one mid-sized social platform (500K+ users) that adds ActivityPub support in 2026. The “build vs. buy” calculation for federation shifts decisively toward “just use Fedify.” ▶️ Fediscovery will ship in a stable Mastodon release in 2026, moving from behind feature flags to production-ready. The specifications for pluggable discovery providers — covering account search, follow recommendations, and trends — will reach 1.0 status, and at least one public Fediscovery-compatible provider will launch for general use. Small instance operators will finally have a real option to improve discovery without running their own infrastructure. ▶️ The new “ActivityRank” algorithm in Loops will prove that ethical recommendations and decentralization can coexist. Dan Supernault’s approach — where each instance trains its own algorithm while surfacing content across the ActivityPub network — will be recognized as a breakthrough in solving the fediverse’s discoverability problem. By the end of 2026, the pattern will be studied or adopted by at least two other ActivityPub platforms. ▶️ ATProto will advance from Internet Drafts to an official IETF Working Group in 2026. Following the September 2025 submission of initial specifications, Bluesky will secure enough support and independent implementers to form a dedicated Working Group — moving from “proposal being discussed” to “standard being formally developed.” 🌶️ SPICY Hot takes - a bit more risky - but I’m calling my shot. ▶️ A well-known digital-native media publication (10M+ monthly visitors) will federate via ActivityPub in 2026 and publicly share positive results. Whether through Ghost, WordPress, or custom implementation, this outlet will report that federated followers drove meaningful engagement — making the business case for federation legible to other publishers for the first time. By year end, at least two additional publications will announce federation plans, citing this pioneer as proof of concept. ▶️ At least one major news organization (top 50 US by traffic) will announce it is leaving X/Twitter entirely and making Bluesky or the Fediverse its primary social distribution channel. The “institutional exodus” begins. ▶️ At least one major national government or major city will launch an official presence on BOTH Bluesky AND the ActivityPub Fediverse in 2026 — and it will be a European government. Expect surprising additional early adopters after this from Latin America, Asia-Pacific, or Africa to follow that lead and make moves that year to do the same. This is the year the move to “digital sovereignty" from US tech will benefit the open social web. Eurosky will inch along with some promise. ▶️ Nostr ↔ ATProto ↔ ActivityPub three-way bridging becomes functional via BridgyFed or another service by end of 2026. The “protocol wars” narrative collapses into “just pick your client.” ▶️ AltStore will be live with Federation features in at least 5 countries by end of 2026 (currently EU + Japan, with Brazil, Australia, UK announced). AltStore is an independent iOS app marketplace created by Riley Testut and Shane Gill — the first major alternative to Apple’s App Store, made possible by the EU’s Digital Markets Act. The federated app marketplace model will prove viable outside Europe, challenging Apple’s App Store dominance in multiple regulatory regimes simultaneously. Their ActivityPub integration — where app updates flow to Mastodon, Threads, and Bluesky — will become the most compelling non-social-media use case for decentrlized social features, proving definitively that such protocols extends beyond microblogging. ▶️ Loops will become the third most-used Fediverse software by MAU by end of 2026, trailing only Mastodon and Pixelfed. The short-form video platform will cross 100,000 monthly active users, with Loops-originated content generating significant federated engagement from non-Loops clients — proving that ActivityPub can power video-centric social experiences. ▶️ PieFed will emerge as the most feature-rich Threadiverse platform by end of 2026, surpassing Lemmy and Mbin in moderation tools, user experience, and federation capabilities. The platform will cross 10,000 monthly active users and its rapid development pace — shipping major features weekly — will make it the default recommendation for anyone starting a new Reddit-style community in the fediverse. ▶️ More laws akin to Utah’s Digital Choice Act will pass or advance - sparking first steps towards interoperability to mainstream US discourse. The Utah law takes effect July 1, 2026, and several other states will pass similar ones, requiring social media platforms to enable data portability and interoperability. At least one major platform will announce ActivityPub or AT Protocol support to comply. The “Digital Choice” framing will prove more politically viable than “antitrust” for breaking Big Tech’s lock-in. **What did I miss? What did I get wrong? Let me know — and I ’ll see you in December 2026 to grade these.**

A year ago, I made some bold predictions about where the open social web was headed. Now that we’re at the end of 2025, it’s time for a sober (okay, maybe slightly amused) look at what I got right, what I got wrong, and what I was hilariously optimistic about. Am working on my 2026 predictions but want to get a sober grading of 2025 out of the way first. Here was my 2025 predictions: www.timothychambers.net/2024/12/2… And for grins, here was my 2024 predictions: www.timothychambers.net/2023/12/2… So how did I do with 2025’s Nostadamus cosplay? THE WINS 🎯 ✅ Fediverse Growth: EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS Predicted: Cross 12 million regisetrered users Actual: 12.8 million registered users to 16 million users (per FediDB and FediIndex, March 2025) I undersold this one! The ActivityPub-based Fediverse didn’t just cross 12 million—it blew past it to 15 million by March. Color me pleasantly surprised. MAU stayed relatively flat (as did it for BlueSky as well)…. Note on Fediverse stats: Tracking the Fediverse is tricky because it’s decentralized and opt-in. Different trackers (FediDB, fedi.wrm.sr, The Federation, Fediverse Observer) report different numbers based on which servers report to them. FediDB shows 12.8 MM, and Fedi Index shows over 16 million. ✅ Ghost 1.0 Fediverse Support: SPOT ON Predicted: Ghost launches 1.0 version of Fediverse support Actual: Ghost launched ActivityPub beta in March 2025, full Ghost 6.0 in August 2025 This one played out just as I hoped: Ghost is now a major player in federated publishing and has offered back the source code for their ActivityPub middleware. Kudos to Jon and team! ✅ Migration Waves: DIRECTIONALLY CORRECT Predicted: Waves to Threads, Bluesky, and Mastodon in that order Actual: Pretty much exactly this. Not huge waves (except to Threads likely in part also driven by IG integration - but each wave did play out as expected, especially to Threads but also to the others, in that order. THE PARTIAL CREDITS 🟡 Threads Federation: 60% RIGHT - BUT FUTURE UNCLEAR Predicted: Full, two-way Federation in 2025, remains opt-in Actual: Partial two-way federation did hit this year - likes and follows work bidirectionally, but not replies or quote posts- the biggest part of two-way federation still to come; As I thought, federation features for Threads users remains opt-in It’s moving at a glacial pace and recent interviews with new head of Threads described Fediverse support as being “maintained” but not prioritized. Hope that is better than it sounds but we’ll see. Score: 60% correct - Federation happened and stayed opt-in (✓), but it’s only partially bidirectional (partial ✓). 🟡 Ghost as top 10 of all Fediverse server: they have launched about 13,600 blogs federated according to Fedidb.com - which itself is super impressive. Each “server’ is one user only. If you sort by software and total users, they made it the 21st most popular server software. Impressive and think maybe next year. 🟡 BridgyFed Opt-Out: HALF RIGHT Predicted: Bluesky and Threads would support moving to “opt-out”; Mastodon would enable servers to choose “opt-in” or “opt-out” Actual: half a miss, is better than full miss? ✅ Mastodon instance-level opt-in launched (September 2024) - admins can now opt their entire instance into BridgyFed, effectively making it opt-out for users at the instance level. Indieweb.social that I founded, was one of the servers doing this. Newsmast was another. ❌ Individual user opt-out: BridgyFed remains opt-in for individual users on both Bluesky and Fediverse The nuance: I correctly predicted that Mastodon would enable servers to choose opt-in/opt-out, which did happen via BridgyFed’s instance opt-in feature. However, the broader prediction that Bluesky and Threads leadership would actively support this shift. That appears half-right too: willingness seems to be there at both Bluesky and Threads side to do this, and BridgyFed itself added the capability, but from what it appears funding is the main constraint. Turns out there is a fix for that, here: www.patreon.com/ANewSocia… And here: store.anew.social Maybe next year? 🟡 Bluesky Growth: 80% RIGHT Predicted: 50 million registered users Actual: 41 million registered users (November 2025) I was optimistic but directionally correct. Bluesky grew from 25M to 40M—adding 15M users instead of the 25M I forecasted. Still impressive growth, though engagement metrics showed significant churn after the post-election surge. 🟡 Threads Growth: 67% RIGHT Predicted: 600 million MAU Actual: 400 million MAU (August 2025) Threads had solid growth from 300M to 400M, but fell short of my ambitious 600M target by 200M. I may have been overly enthusiastic here, but adding 100M MAU in a year is nothing to sneeze at. Frankly, they have cemented the win in being the clear “post-Twitter” microblogging platform to win, and they seem fully focused on building htis to 1 billion monthly users. 🟡 Fediverse MAU Baseline: MIXED / POSSIBLY LIKELY HALF WRONG Predicted: Fediverse MAU won’t drop below 1 million Actual: May have dipped below 1M at least on FediDB; varied by tracker The data here is inconsistent across sources. FediDB showed ~.09M active users in Dec 2025. Fediverse Index counts it as just over 1M at points during 2025. So this is Schrodinger’s prediction. But as it’s not unanimous I’ll cout this as half-wrong. Score: Uncertain - Likely didn’t fully hold on FediDB specifically, though the Fediverse clearly maintained a stable active user base overall. 🟡 Global South Relevance (South America & Africa): DIRECTIONALLY CORRECT Predicted: South America and Africa would grow increasingly relevant to the Open Social Web. Actual: Not yet dominant in raw user or instance counts on Mastodon or users on Bluesky, but relevance is emerging in the expected early form. Adoption is showing up first through usage on shared and diaspora-run instances, journalist and activist communities, and migration during political or platform stress. THE MISSES ❌ ❌ Another Major Platform Adds Support: NADA. Predicted: One other major top 20 US social media service (not Tumblr) adds ActivityPub Actual: Only part of this I got right is that Tumblr did NOT join the fediverse; and no other top 20 major platform did either. The Alt-Store is the newest major social enabled service to join, and that did happen this year, but they aren’t in the top 20. Got that one just wrong. ❌ One new non-microblogging type offering launches with with 50,000+ users in 2025. NOPE. Bonfire hit 1.0 with impressive new features. As did Loops both brand new offerings….But not with 50,000 registered users. Yet. ❌ Bluesky MAU Baseline Prediction Predicted: Bluesky monthly active users won’t drop below current 20 million Actual: Full on whiffing this one. They declined to a steady 5 million monthly active users. The spirit of this (as with the Fediverse baseline prediction was in the right direction, as both services were stable, but I got the numbers wrong on both. bskycharts.edavis.dev/edavis.de… ❌ Bridge-Enabled Users (ActivityPub ↔ Bluesky): MISS Predicted: ~20% of Open Social Web users would be “bridge enabled” between ActivityPub and Bluesky. Actual: Current data shows ~125,000–126,000 fully bridged accounts. Against roughly 6 million combined Mastodon and Bluesky monthly active users, this equates to ~2% directly, or ~4% under a generous assumption that only half of users are realistically bridge-eligible. In other words, 20% is mathematically unsupported, bridge-enabled users remain firmly in the single-digit range. But again: The limiting factor is not interest but infrastructure and funding, reinforcing the earlier point. Give here. For 2026 predictions I’m going to try again on MAU predictions. ❌ No viable Bluesky Relay/AppView alternatives - HAPPILY MISSED. HAPPY to have gotten this wrong: Blacksky DID create viable relay/AppView alternatives: Blacksky Relay (2025): Built their own full-network relay using custom implementation. Publicly accessible - others can use it instead of Bluesky PBC’s relay Confirmed operational as of May 2025 📋 PREDICTIONS STILL AWAITING DATA Several predictions need more digging to verify: 🔍 Aggregator apps (Flipboard Surf, OpenVibe, Tapestry) in top 5 apps that support the open social web by downloads - That one is tricky MAYBE. Anyone help me verify? 🔍 250,000+ posts from Lemmy/Mbin/PieFed - couldn’t find post amounts JUST for 2025. Anybody know? 🔍250,000+ federated podcast episodes - PodcastIndex doesn’t give out stats of active users that I could find. If anyone has data on these, I’m all ears! THE OVERALL VERDICT FOR LAST YEAR’S PREDICTIONS? Overall accuracy: Strong C+ / B- I more or less got the macro trends right: growth across all major platforms, federation becoming real (even if partially), and Ghost shipping. My most interesting near-miss was on BridgyFed…And I was overly optimistic about Threads achieving full two-way federation and jury very much out if they get there in 2026. What predictions would you make for 2026? Let me know in the comments—I promise to grade myself just as honestly next year! 😄